Robust Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 98L)

[toad strangler]

CMC heading right for Josh Morgerman's summer "Hurricane House" in MS

[Ritzcraker]

https://i.imgur.com/JvgfRcc.gif
12z GFS says pump the breaks N of the Islands and goes S all the way to MX/TX border...

Not too sure if it will end up that far south. One thing about the GFS is it tends to over do features like ridges and troughs. Could be possible but I’m a skeptic on that ridging.

[supercane4867]

Models are pushing for the idea of possibly 2 hurricanes in the GOM. Now that's very 2020...

[Kazmit]

Right into Pensacola.

[Ivanhater]

Right into Pensacola.

https://img.techpowerup.org/200817/gem-mslp-pcpn-watl-36.png

[Cpv17]

CMC Pensacola

GFS Brownsville

Long ways to go.

[SouthFLTropics]

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that we will see the models trend all the way to a recurve into the Carolinas before this is over. And then we will see them trend left again and finally settle on a solution. Usually the answer lies somewhere in the middle. The Bahamas and Florida look to be under the gun. After that, Northern Gulf Coast, MS and AL. JMHO.

[supercane4867]

12z GFS keeps it too small so it's likely understating the intensity.

[chris_fit]

12z UKMET. If somebody can plot this but it looks to take the system north of the islands


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 17.8N 54.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 21.08.2020 17.8N 54.4W WEAK
12UTC 21.08.2020 18.9N 56.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.08.2020 20.1N 59.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.08.2020 20.9N 63.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2020 21.9N 66.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2020 22.9N 70.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


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Last point right about here..

[stormlover2013]

I don't see the models going to Carolina, Florida to Mexico with it more prob from New Orleans to mexico.

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow. 11 pages already and it’s not even an “official” invest yet, crazy...

Even crazier to see so many models picking up on it so early. That tells ya something there

[ScottNAtlanta]

Does anyone think maybe the models are confused with the 2 systems? It could very well be that the more western wave goes north and the one further back goes west. The fact that they are close to each other might be confusing some of the models

[toad strangler]

Through the FL Straits is a classic beasty track. However, it won't take much for either Cuba or the FL peninsula to be "Charley'd" if thats what happens.

[psyclone]

It sure is fascinating watching the tropics just blossom in the latter half of August. Just like flowers after a desert rain. seedlings just explode everywhere...

[DorkyMcDorkface]

It sure is fascinating watching the tropics just blossom in the latter half of August. Just like flowers after a desert rain. seedlings just explode everywhere...

Dr. Gray didn't used to ring the bell on the 20th for nothing...

[DestinHurricane]

I would be shocked if this isn't an invest by tonight.

[SouthFLTropics]

GEFS-PARA Ensemble Trend over the last 4 runs.

[Cpv17]

I think we’ll see the Euro trend stronger with this @12z today.

[Cpv17]

GEFS-PARA Ensemble Trend over the last 4 runs.

https://i.imgur.com/zcUnyf4.gif

Like I said earlier, looks bad for Florida.

[NDG]

12z UKMET. If somebody can plot this but it looks to take the system north of the islands


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 17.8N 54.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 21.08.2020 17.8N 54.4W WEAK
12UTC 21.08.2020 18.9N 56.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.08.2020 20.1N 59.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.08.2020 20.9N 63.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2020 21.9N 66.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2020 22.9N 70.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


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Last point right about here..

https://i.imgur.com/oZAcmwO.png

UKMET has not performed too well this year, at least in the Atlantic side.