Category5Kaiju wrote:ConvergenceZone wrote:Category5Kaiju wrote:Personally I'm quite interested to see what October and November will produce. While it's definitely not something I'd expect by default, it's also intriguing to think back at -ENSO seasons such as 1998, 1999, 2005, 2008, and 2020. Back during those Septembers, who would've thought that a destructive Category 4 or higher hurricane would've formed during the late months? And, in the extreme case of 1932, a November Category 5 hurricane?
2025's story has been tame so far. But will it be like this the next 70 days?
It may be just as likely to be just as quiet as it's been. It could just be one of those low activity years.
True, though unless something truly extraordinary happens (like a 2007/2021-style event), I'd imagine that the still-warm deep tropics, the -ENSO pattern (which would only progressively get stronger as we enter fall) that would theoretically reduce wind shear, and the general O/N climatology pattern of seeing CAG activity or sleeper waves that turn into something in the W. Atlantic would also serve to help produce activity in some fashion before the finish line.
In fact, perhaps what's going on in the WPAC may be interesting. There were theories going on with the idea that whatever hostile background conditions were plaguing the Atlantic somehow were also affecting the WPAC, with its dearth of powerful typhoons even in August and early September. Now that the WPAC managed to produce 2 super typhoons, maybe that may be a sign that such conditions are improving, or at least going to, in the future?
There’s almost certainly going to be activity in Oct+. Since 1921, only 1993, 1983, and 1960 had no ACE Oct+. Whether or not it will actually be relatively active vs climo is a totally different story though.
