Tropical Wave Over the Far Eastern Atlantic: (Is Invest 97L)

[wxman57]

One thing I'm noting is the relatively weak Bermuda high. That should allow any developing storm to turn northward prior to reaching the eastern Caribbean. I would not rule out any threat to the NE Caribbean or East U.S. Coast just yet, though. Reaching the Gulf would seem unlikely.

[Woofde]

Wow, this puppy has some serious rotation going on already. Are my eyes deceiving me, or is the low level cloud motion indicating an already a closed circulation? Maybe the GFS is onto something with the fast development; will be an interesting one to watch for sure.

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1952535346530648315



 https://x.com/WxTca/status/1953874713588994538




We still have ways to go as to determining where exactly future 97L is going to go down the road, but there's been quite the chatter recently on the wx community (I especially remember the ones Eric Webb posted) about ridging being expected to be fairly strong during the mid to late part of the month. If this were to be mid-September onward, then I'd definitely be more inclined to believe a clean, OTS recurve is the most likely outcome. With that being said, I'm inclined to think that this future storm is probably going to be an issue for somebody. Where and who is unknown.

For this to safely go OTS, imho, it probably would have to form fairly north and grow very strong early on to feel even the slightest weaknesses in the ridge, or the models predicting strong ridging would have to be flat out incorrect (I don't think people's interpretations of those models are wrong, however). I did quite a bit of combing back in the Irma and Florence models thread, and interestingly enough a great number of model outputs around the time it was in its infant stages pointed toward OTS outcomes. A vast majority of Cape Verde storms safely go OTS, but the minority of ones that don't end up being the ones we truly remember.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1954169542974062602

[KeysRedWine]

I was wondering where early model runs had future Irma going back in 2017.....

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1952535346530648315



 https://x.com/WxTca/status/1953874713588994538




We still have ways to go as to determining where exactly future 97L is going to go down the road, but there's been quite the chatter recently on the wx community (I especially remember the ones Eric Webb posted) about ridging being expected to be fairly strong during the mid to late part of the month. If this were to be mid-September onward, then I'd definitely be more inclined to believe a clean, OTS recurve is the most likely outcome. With that being said, I'm inclined to think that this future storm is probably going to be an issue for somebody. Where and who is unknown.

For this to safely go OTS, imho, it probably would have to form fairly north and grow very strong early on to feel even the slightest weaknesses in the ridge, or the models predicting strong ridging would have to be flat out incorrect (I don't think people's interpretations of those models are wrong, however). I did quite a bit of combing back in the Irma and Florence models thread, and interestingly enough a great number of model outputs around the time it was in its infant stages pointed toward OTS outcomes. A vast majority of Cape Verde storms safely go OTS, but the minority of ones that don't end up being the ones we truly remember.

[TomballEd]

Just looking at the overnight models and ensembles future Erin recurves close enough to the East Coast to make people nervous or recurves a little too late and affects the US East Coast (including the N half of Florida) or even Nova Scotia.

12 or 13 days out getting any more specific than 'it recurves before the East Coast or it hits the East Coast' really isn't possible. Late 70s my family vacationed 2 weeks at a time in Harwichport in the same rental house that was a 5 minute walk to the beach. That was fun. So the 0Z Euro was an attention grabber. Growing up on Long Island and read a lot of library books about 1938.

[TomballEd]

Wow, this puppy has some serious rotation going on already. Are my eyes deceiving me, or is the low level cloud motion indicating an already a closed circulation? Maybe the GFS is onto something with the fast development; will be an interesting one to watch for sure.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20250809/fa718cbe2feec3416af2823ea6c3aa7f.gif https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20250809/cc6d1f53a4f86434e5beb969b0dad847.gif

I posted yesterday the wave would fizzle somewhat until it reached about 40W. Looking at the IR and its cold cloud tops I am wondering if I was wrong.

[NDG]

My thoughts on this TW through the next 7-10 days or so. Is going to be a busy tropical watching next few days

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1954177924568879344

[cycloneye]

My thoughts on all of this in this post that is in spanish for my followers in Central America
and Caribbean. I made the translation to english for this thread.

Cyclofriends, the rotation of the new tropical wave is as evident as it is impressive,
with characteristics and potential to become a Cape Verde-type cyclone. CNH raised its development
probability to 40% in 3 to 7 days, and we consider they are being conservative, although they already
warn that it could become a tropical depression. Regarding the Caribbean, stay calm, no one can
predict its trajectory with certainty, beyond that it will move westward. We will have a somewhat
approximate idea as soon as the circulation consolidates because, although it is low, the models
forecast that in the process of closing that circulation, it will move northwest until reaching latitude
18 North, which coincidentally is the same as Puerto Rico. After that, the high pressure will force it
westward. If the circulation closure is completed at a lower latitude, its passage northeast of the
Caribbean could be closer.

Time will tell, and there is time to observe.

 https://x.com/CycloforumsPR/status/1954187910946734448

[Nimbus]

Wow, this puppy has some serious rotation going on already. Are my eyes deceiving me, or is the low level cloud motion indicating an already a closed circulation? Maybe the GFS is onto something with the fast development; will be an interesting one to watch for sure.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20250809/fa718cbe2feec3416af2823ea6c3aa7f.gif https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20250809/cc6d1f53a4f86434e5beb969b0dad847.gif

See Luis post above, circulation center is about 10N so GFS AI will probably beat NHC prediction.
Good news potentially as it may start gaining latitude earlier.

[cycloneye]

Hey peeps, yes!!!, Invest 97L is up