Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands (Is Invest 98L)

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET: still no actual TCG shown in textual output but 1007 mb low is E of Nicaragua headed slowly in the direction of Nicaragua. Don’t know yet if it will landfall there though. Run not finished. Edit: Looks like it on 10/24.

[cycloneye]

NHC discounts the CMC with the 48 hours down to 0%.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

East of the Windward Islands and the Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic more than
1000 miles east of the Windward Islands continues to produce a large
area of showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this
system is possible over the next several days while it moves
generally westward at 15 to 20 mph. Regardless of development, this
system is expected to bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the
Windward Islands late this weekend and then move across the
Caribbean Sea much of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[LarryWx]

12Z GEFS has bifurcation with one set moving NE over E Car. like GFS while others get into W Car.

[Fancy1002]

12Z GEFS has bifurcation with one set moving NE over E Car. like GFS while others get into W Car.

I think those are two different systems.

[zzzh]

[blp]

12Z GEFS has bifurcation with one set moving NE over E Car. like GFS while others get into W Car.

Bifurcation or is the GFS developing a separate area of vorticity off the Columbian low which we know it has a bias with. I think GFS has all the eggs in the east basket.

[Spacecoast]

EC-AI shows a bit of shear @ 162hr:

[chaser1]

EC-AI shows a bit of shear @ 162hr:

https://i.ibb.co/kVvGkQ54/aishr.jpg

Those Westerlies don't exactly look "transitory".

[boca]

The way these troughs are moving thru every 3 to 4 days that system won’t come anywhere near the Gulf or far NW Caribbean

[zzzh]

12z fnv3 W shift

[psyclone]

The way these troughs are moving thru every 3 to 4 days that system won’t come anywhere near the Gulf or far NW Caribbean

yes. extremely remote chance. I'd be far more concerned much farther east...like Puerto Rico. Florida peeps are looking for cold fronts and dry air and we're cashing tickets.

[boca]

The way these troughs are moving thru every 3 to 4 days that system won’t come anywhere near the Gulf or far NW Caribbean

yes. extremely remote chance. I'd be far more concerned much farther east...like Puerto Rico. Florida peeps are looking for cold fronts and dry air and we're cashing tickets.

We can still use the rain here but I don’t see that occurring.

[sasha_B]

https://i.imgur.com/moHGrUu.png
12z fnv3 W shift

There's an 891 hPa member low a little earlier in that run (at +234h, near 15°N 80°W). And a fair few additional sub-920 members, so that one isn't even a total outlier. It would be meteorologically impressive (& needless to say potentially disastrous, given the absence of a path OTS) if this October were to produce a storm in the same league as Milton, Rita, and "Labor Day '35" after 18 weeks of next to nothing in the Caribbean and GoM.

[Nuno]

The way these troughs are moving thru every 3 to 4 days that system won’t come anywhere near the Gulf or far NW Caribbean

yes. extremely remote chance. I'd be far more concerned much farther east...like Puerto Rico. Florida peeps are looking for cold fronts and dry air and we're cashing tickets.

We can still use the rain here but I don’t see that occurring.

Sadly I think we are done for the rainy season. I have a feeling it is going to be a very dry, dry season...

[SFLcane]

12Z GEFS has bifurcation with one set moving NE over E Car. like GFS while others get into W Car.

Bifurcation or is the GFS developing a separate area of vorticity off the Columbian low which we know it has a bias with. I think GFS has all the eggs in the east basket.

Not a fan of those wide recurves on the ai ensembles. Before you had none over cuba so that was a west trend.

[TomballEd]

NWS Houston is discussing fire weather risks in their AFD. Not a drop of rain in October after a dry September.

Back on topic, the sun is setting on the yellow x.

[TomballEd]

12Z GEFS has bifurcation with one set moving NE over E Car. like GFS while others get into W Car.

Bifurcation or is the GFS developing a separate area of vorticity off the Columbian low which we know it has a bias with. I think GFS has all the eggs in the east basket.

Could the wave about 10* W of the yellow x be the system that some of the GFS ensembles are sometimes trying to develop in the W. Caribbean?

[CPAGator]

The way these troughs are moving thru every 3 to 4 days that system won’t come anywhere near the Gulf or far NW Caribbean

yes. extremely remote chance. I'd be far more concerned much farther east...like Puerto Rico. Florida peeps are looking for cold fronts and dry air and we're cashing tickets.

We can still use the rain here but I don’t see that occurring.

I have seen you mention that a couple of times, which is amazing to me. I am up in Vero Beach and we have absolutely been inundated with heavy rains for weeks now. I finally got the chance to mow my lawn yesterday after over a full month of it being way too soggy. We have had enough rain for three or four Octobers this year it seems. Just this week starting to dry out a little, but you still pass areas that are still underwater everywhere.

[Weathertracker96]

12Z GEFS has bifurcation with one set moving NE over E Car. like GFS while others get into W Car.

Bifurcation or is the GFS developing a separate area of vorticity off the Columbian low which we know it has a bias with. I think GFS has all the eggs in the east basket.

Could the wave about 10* W of the yellow x be the system that some of the GFS ensembles are sometimes trying to develop in the W. Caribbean?

That’s the question I have as well. I was surprised to see two distinctive camps on the ensembles. That could throw a challenge in the future forecasts regarding the wave.

[Nuno]

yes. extremely remote chance. I'd be far more concerned much farther east...like Puerto Rico. Florida peeps are looking for cold fronts and dry air and we're cashing tickets.

We can still use the rain here but I don’t see that occurring.

I have seen you mention that a couple of times, which is amazing to me. I am up in Vero Beach and we have absolutely been inundated with heavy rains for weeks now. I finally got the chance to mow my lawn yesterday after over a full month of it being way too soggy. We have had enough rain for three or four Octobers this year it seems. Just this week starting to dry out a little, but you still pass areas that are still underwater everywhere.

West Palm and points south really got a dry summer. It was already drier than a typical dry season, then we went two months this summer with very minimal rainfall. Last summer was similar, it was as if the afternoon thunderstorms were bubbling off west and not at all reaching the metro. Strong easterly winds pushing things off into GOMEX and not many waves this summer passing through. When it did it rain, it came in week-long bursts then back to dry conditions. It was quite frustrating.

Of course, I wouldn't want this storm coming through and wrecking havoc either. At this point, even a weak TS wouldn't do much given the dry spell ahead.