TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[senorpepr]

I agree. So anyone seen the latest quickscat 40 and 45 knot vectors in several locations, as well as a center at about 19.6N 44.0W. That many 40 knots would be enough for upgrade with a better appearance.

[img]

The problem with that image is it's old. About 15 hours old... (based off the QS timestamp)

Regardless... their upgrade earlier does make since based on this image...

Funny, that was what the NRL had, recent quickscats must have missed. Oh well.

Actually... that was the latest scheduled pass. When you go on NRL's website... after you first click on the storm's name and the forecast track and satellite pop up... look at the bottom under Satellite Pass Info.

Code: Select all

SCATT 08/07 0849 Z,  SCAT_FNMOC  0031    08/07 2113 Z,  QUIK  0049

The last QS pass was from the FNMOC Scat satellite at 0849Z, which is the image you posted. The next image was from the QS satellite at 2113Z. Although that is about an hour ago... it takes a while for it do go through the system. It should be posted within another hour.

[wxman57]

ok people


for pros: stop acting like like 8 year olds by getting into a ridiculous argument, i understand some comments need to be addressed , but do it in a respectful manner and act "professional"

I believe that we pros feel a bit insulted that it was suggested that the better forecasters work M-F and take weekends off. Heck, I've been doing this 25 years and I was there in the office at 6am this morning.

However, I think our points have been made, so let's discuss TD, I mean TS Irene..

[WindRunner]

ok people

for amateurs: respect what the pros are saying as they have good incite, you do not have to agree with that they are saying but dont act like you know more than they do

for pros: stop acting like like 8 year olds by getting into a ridiculous argument, i understand some comments need to be addressed , but do it in a respectful manner and act "professional"

thats my humble opinion and im going to act my age by talking about whats going on with irene, so with that said , back to irene

I don't see any mets acting like 8 year olds.

People are making attrociously stupid comments this afternoon, and the mets are informing the misinformed...

and the misinformed are misinformed no more.

[cycloneye]

Ok guys let's take it easy and return to discuss Irene present and future status.It has been a good discussion but sometimes it moves off the principal theme and that is Tropical Storm Irene.

[Astro_man92]

and the misinformed are misinformed no more.

lol

[Astro_man92]

Ok guys let's take it easy and return to discuss Irene present and future status.It has been a good discussion but sometimes it moves off the principal theme and that is Tropical Storm Irene.

Ya really what is that gal up to. lol

[Air Force Met]

The burst of convection that you see associated with the northern LLC is stemming from its interaction with the southern LLC. It is clear in the last frame that the dominant center is to the south, and that the northern LLC is being stripped out and will not likely be around a lot longer.

Now, the southern circulation has not yet fully entrenched at the surface yet, so technically it is not the main LLC at this hour.

How can the southern LLC be the dominate one if it's not fully entrenched at the sfc yet? That doesn't make a whole lot of sense...especially given the fact there is no LLC to the south. There are clouds streaking to the NE less than 60 miles to the NW of the southern circulation. There is no way the clouds moving to the NE will stop...and then head back to the SW so that they can go around another LLC. There is no sfc circulation in that area. It is possible something could work it's way down if the convection stays there and the other LLC moves far enough away...thus weakening the pressure gradient enough to allow for it...but that would take a lot of time. Given how much the tops have warmed...this is growing less likely by the minute.

[Air Force Met]

ok people


for pros: stop acting like like 8 year olds by getting into a ridiculous argument, i understand some comments need to be addressed , but do it in a respectful manner and act "professional"

I believe that we pros feel a bit insulted that it was suggested that the better forecasters work M-F and take weekends off. Heck, I've been doing this 25 years and I was there in the office at 6am this morning.

However, I think our points have been made, so let's discuss TD, I mean TS Irene..

That's kinda what I was thinking. It's a little insulting for people to say that. I am in management now...but I've worked shift work for 15 years to get here....and I was better then than now...too much paper pushing.

[Mac]

ok people


for pros: stop acting like like 8 year olds by getting into a ridiculous argument, i understand some comments need to be addressed , but do it in a respectful manner and act "professional"

I believe that we pros feel a bit insulted that it was suggested that the better forecasters work M-F and take weekends off. Heck, I've been doing this 25 years and I was there in the office at 6am this morning.

However, I think our points have been made, so let's discuss TD, I mean TS Irene..

That's kinda what I was thinking. It's a little insulting for people to say that. I am in management now...but I've worked shift work for 15 years to get here....and I was better then than now...too much paper pushing.

Now everyone is getting on the same page. I think everyone here can agree that management has a tendency to have their heads shoved too far up their arses to be of much use to anyone.

<snicker>

[Astro_man92]

k here is a load of maps
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SST's
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Tracking Irene
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Irene 5 day forcast map
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Irene's Climotolagy map
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Discusion
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Sattilite map for Irene
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Model maps for Irene
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Irene Storm History
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[senorpepr]

One possible exception is maybe the military (as Senorpepr can probably attest). The station chiefs (showing my age...but we will always be station chiefs to me...)... the Chief of Weather Ops (which is what I am in today's lingo) are usually Monday - Friday day workers...and work on weekends when needed because of a severe weather event...etc. These guys are usually more talented forecasters, not always, but most of the time...due to extreme experience. When I was coming up in the ranks, the station chief was THE MAN who could forecast you into the dirt without breaking a sweat...and he worked MOnday - Friday. Again...this is the way it used to be and still is at some locations. Those senior NCO's (AF and Navy) know their stuff and are very good forecasters. Every one I have ever known could outforecast any one of my met profs at A&M (with the possible exception of Steve Lyons...who I have watched forecast (when not restrained by TWC) and is very good at what he does...when he is allowed to do it).

You said it best right there. (Although, as far as I'm concerned, we still call 'em station chiefs. ) The station chiefs at the Combat Weather Teams (CWTs) are usually THE MAN, although with today's reengineering, it has made it a little more difficult. I really don't have enough CWT time under my belt to really state one way or another, since I've been working at forecast centers throughout my career. However, I will say the exception to "the man" being "THE MAN," would be at those forecast hubs. The team chiefs (which would be a hub's station chief) really cannot keep proficient since the hubs are usually forecasting for dozens of locations within hundreds thousands of square miles. In those situations, the forecasters have the advantage, especially in those hubs where the forecasters' locations vary frequently and by great distances.




...

Moving on, looks like the latest QS from 21Z shows some slight weakening. Just a couple of 40kt barbs with a sole 50kt barb... HOWEVER... all of the winds at or about tropical storm forecast are, of course, rain contaminated.

[wxman57]

Moving on, looks like the latest QS from 21Z shows some slight weakening. Just a couple of 40kt barbs with a sole 50kt barb... HOWEVER... all of the winds at or about tropical storm forecast are, of course, rain contaminated.

Senorpepr,

I think you may be looking at an old QS image, too. It says 21:39 on the bottom, but the center is clearly east of 44W, indicating it's 2139Z yesterday not today. On top of the page, it says "created August 7 18:12 UTC". The center was clearly well past 46W at 21Z today.

Here's the image I think you may be looking at:
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... 8_09ds.png

[wxman57]

By the way, if you want to see the BEST model guidance page on the net (just like I have at work, almost), then take a look at what Colorado State is doing.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

Here's a sample image from 18Z with Most of the models available. By the way, you reall shouldn't use the BAM models north of the deep tropics (20N).

<img src="http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png">

[Astro_man92]

wow that is alot of models

[Seele]

Here's the latest QS:



This doesn't even show a closed circulation around the center. You can see a ciculation closer to the rain contaminated barbs on the QS south of 20N, but that's the MLC.

[senorpepr]

Moving on, looks like the latest QS from 21Z shows some slight weakening. Just a couple of 40kt barbs with a sole 50kt barb... HOWEVER... all of the winds at or about tropical storm forecast are, of course, rain contaminated.

Senorpepr,

I think you may be looking at an old QS image, too. It says 21:39 on the bottom, but the center is clearly east of 44W, indicating it's 2139Z yesterday not today. On top of the page, it says "created August 7 18:12 UTC". The center was clearly well past 46W at 21Z today.

Here's the image I think you may be looking at:
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... 8_09ds.png

I wasn't quite using that website, but, by golly, you're right. It is old as well. The time stamp on the product I was looking at said "Aug 7 21:04 UTC", but I didn't notice that the center wasn't closer to 46W rather than 44W. Good catch.

[wxman57]

Here's the latest QS:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas25.png
This doesn't even show a closed circulation around the center. You can see a ciculation closer to the rain contaminated barbs on the QS south of 20N, but that's the MLC.

Nope, that's from 0850Z this morning, it is from when Irene actually had convection by the center. Those black barbs are rain contanimated, meaning they may be well above the surface, by the way.

[wxman57]

I wasn't quite using that website, but, by golly, you're right. It is old as well. The time stamp on the product I was looking at said "Aug 7 21:04 UTC", but I didn't notice that the center wasn't closer to 46W rather than 44W. Good catch.

Yeah, pretty good for a weekend forecaster, huh? (have we beaten this into the ground enough?)

[Seele]

Here's the latest QS:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas25.png
This doesn't even show a closed circulation around the center. You can see a ciculation closer to the rain contaminated barbs on the QS south of 20N, but that's the MLC.

Nope, that's from 0850Z this morning, it is from when Irene actually had convection by the center. Those black barbs are rain contanimated, meaning they may be well above the surface, by the way.

That's strange. The time at the top and bottom of the image shows Aug 7 22:05 UTC.

[WindRunner]

I wasn't quite using that website, but, by golly, you're right. It is old as well. The time stamp on the product I was looking at said "Aug 7 21:04 UTC", but I didn't notice that the center wasn't closer to 46W rather than 44W. Good catch.

Yeah, pretty good for a weekend forecaster, huh? (have we beaten this into the ground enough?)

Well, aren't we all weekend forecasters here? (don't answer - it's rhetorical )