91L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[DESTRUCTION5]

This is already a depression...That is obvious IMO..I think we will have Beryl Shortly..

There's no way you can say that it's "obviously" a TD. Show definitive proof that there's a closed surface low. The observations don't show it.

There is no difinative proof..Going strickly on sattelite presentation...and long range Wilminton Radar...i think we can all agree that it looks better than Albero did at landfall..And thats why i said In My opinion

[wxman57]

Sorry, don't know what the NHC is seeing. Perhaps they want to warn the folks along the mid Atlantic Coast that more rain is coming and they think that they'll pay attention if they call a mass of thunderstorms a TD? Nothing but SE-SSE winds at 10-25 kts blowing away from the cluster of thunderstorms. There's one ship report from 12Z plotted with a SW wind at 10 kts, but it doesn't seem to match the other wind reports.

If this was a developing TD, then all lthose winds along the coast would be blowing from the NE ahead of it, not from the SE. Here's a sfc plot with satellite:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/91L.gif

[AJC3]

This is already a depression...That is obvious IMO..I think we will have Beryl Shortly..

There's no way you can say that it's "obviously" a TD. Show definitive proof that there's a closed surface low. The observations don't show it.

There is no difinative proof..Going strickly on sattelite presentation...and long range Wilminton Radar...i think we can all agree that it looks better than Albero did at landfall..And thats why i said In My opinion

No qualms with you saying IMO...only thing I took issue with is that it was "obvious".

[Aquawind]

Certainly is far from a wind or surge event.. other than from individual cells. The close proximity and already serious NE flooding issue probably has them pushing the issue a little more.. RECON will verify the facts soon.

[wxman57]

Certainly is far from a wind or surge event.. other than from individual cells. The close proximity and already serious NE flooding issue probably has them pushing the issue a little more.. RECON will verify the facts soon.

Right, even if there was a weak LLC, there's no chance for any intensification with strong southerly winds aloft over it. It's just more rain for the east coast. No significant wind except for the typical gusts to 40-50 mph in thunderstorms, no surge at all.

[Stormcenter]

Sorry, don't know what the NHC is seeing. Perhaps they want to warn the folks along the mid Atlantic Coast that more rain is coming and they think that they'll pay attention if they call a mass of thunderstorms a TD? Nothing but SE-SSE winds at 10-25 kts blowing away from the cluster of thunderstorms. There's one ship report from 12Z plotted with a SW wind at 10 kts, but it doesn't seem to match the other wind reports.

If this was a developing TD, then all lthose winds along the coast would be blowing from the NE ahead of it, not from the SE. Here's a sfc plot with satellite:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/91L.gif

I think you need to give the NHC a little more credit than that.

[mtm4319]

The lowest pressure I've seen on any of the observations spots or buoys I can find is actually in Darlington, SC, with 1012mb.

[jasons2k]

It is odd all the winds in NC Coast are from the SE

[Aquawind]

Sorry, don't know what the NHC is seeing. Perhaps they want to warn the folks along the mid Atlantic Coast that more rain is coming and they think that they'll pay attention if they call a mass of thunderstorms a TD? Nothing but SE-SSE winds at 10-25 kts blowing away from the cluster of thunderstorms. There's one ship report from 12Z plotted with a SW wind at 10 kts, but it doesn't seem to match the other wind reports.

If this was a developing TD, then all lthose winds along the coast would be blowing from the NE ahead of it, not from the SE. Here's a sfc plot with satellite:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/91L.gif

I think you need to give the NHC a little more credit than that.

Well looking at the data we have now.. it certainly is marginal.. Nothing definative shows a closed circulation. Actually the facts show otherwise.. However the potential is there and RECON is about to take off so we will be able to verify all of this soon.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

It is odd all the winds in NC Coast are from the SE

Not all of them... Folly Island, SC is reporting a WNW wind (though only 3 kts):

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=FBIS1

Edit: oops, Folly Island, *SC*, not NC

[Aquawind]

It is odd all the winds in NC Coast are from the SE

Agreed.. Not a sign of winds being drawn into a surface circulation to the south..

[wxman57]

Here's a new sfc plot with satellite. No evidence of anything but SE-SSE winds. Pressures in the area are faialy high. Lowest pressures are inland over SC. Appears to be just a cluster of thunderstorms associated with the upper low lifting northward.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/91La.gif

[terstorm1012]

Southeast winds all up and down the coast and well inland. We've had Southeast winds here for days. I don't see a LLC, and if there is, it's very small.

[Aquawind]

It is odd all the winds in NC Coast are from the SE

Not all of them... Folly Island, NC is reporting a WNW wind (though only 3 kts):

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=FBIS1

Could be an outflow boundry or sea breeze.. but most obs north have the winds even more southerly..

Click on CLT..

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/

[Thunder44]

In all due respect in to wxman57, I think we will start to see changes in the wind direction along the coast in a few hours. 9z the bouy to the west of the "clump of thunderstorms" wind direction changed to south from SSE. The bouy to the north changed from SSE to to SE. I see some spiral banding developing on the north and west side now. It doesn't seem to have closed off at the surface, but it's hard to ignore satellite and radar imagery that shows this thing trying to get better organized. It may not reach TD status before landfall but to just simply say it has "no chance of development" at this stage to me is just mind-boggling.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I think I'll let the NHC make the call, not anyone else. They know what they are doing.

[JamesFromMaine2]

don't know if this has been posted but heres the latest T-numbers!

27/1145 UTC 32.5N 77.9W T2.0/2.0 91L -- Atlantic Ocean

[Weatherfreak000]

Geez, the way those numbers are going we could very well have Beryl.



I have to agree with the pro mets, this doesn't seem like a closed circulation system but hey come on guys, you don't really need to work for this it'll be dead and inland and you cross a name off the list.


Would you rather this or 93L forming? You'd be tracking that all week

[Aquawind]

Keep in mind EVERYONE is entitled to an OPINION.. Amateur or Pro.. were all individuals.. People are not programmed to respond just because of who they or what they do..

I think I'll let the NHC make the call, not anyone else. They know what they are doing.

Exactly there is no disrespect meant here.. fact is people disagree.. nothing new..

[CrazyC83]

Geez, the way those numbers are going we could very well have Beryl.



I have to agree with the pro mets, this doesn't seem like a closed circulation system but hey come on guys, you don't really need to work for this it'll be dead and inland and you cross a name off the list.


Would you rather this or 93L forming? You'd be tracking that all week

If 93L developed now, we'd have a much more serious situation on our hands eventually...