TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #6

[TheRingo]

It's getting closer to 65W when is this thing supposed to turn?

[cpdaman]

it seems to me ( and i am learning) that by the time flo gets to the longitude that the ULL is at now that

1. the trough will be closer to the east coast and thus the steering flow will be effecting areas further to the east than they are now

2. the ull does have a mid level representation as well and the ULL would thus be expected to turn north west in the next day or so as the trough approaches from the west

is this correct, considering the ull has a some repesentation at the mid levels

[Sanibel]

The ULL will poof and Florence will hook north as predicted.

The main thing that is important about the ULL is that it is presently venting Florence and will only strengthen it. 'Venting' is when the ULL orients itself in such a way that it turbo-charges the cyclone's upper outflow by drawing it off quicker. The effect is the storm is allowed to upwell through its heat engine better and therefore get stronger. Its like air flowing through a fire making it hotter.

[gatorcane]

it seems to me ( and i am learning) that by the time flo gets to the longitude that the ULL is at now that

1. the trough will be closer to the east coast and thus the steering flow will be effecting areas further to the east than they are now

2. the ull does have a mid level representation as well and the ULL would thus be expected to turn north west in the next day or so as the trough approaches from the west

is this correct, considering the ull has a some repesentation at the mid levels

The ULL has me worried, I don't like how the models handle a storm and a ULL in very close proximity - the ULL is chugging west with no problem and could allow Florence to piggy-back on it and move more west (much more west) than expected..

The front across the GOM and SE EC is washing out as we speak it looks like. Folks it is Sept 8th - you wouldn't expect a front that far south to hang around that long would you?

[Bailey1777]

Sanibel are you saying that with moisture tropical systems have more density so thus are steered more so by these currents than an ULL?

[gatorcane]

The ULL will poof and Florence will hook north as predicted.

The main thing that is important about the ULL is that it is presently venting Florence and will only strengthen it. 'Venting' is when the ULL orients itself in such a way that it turbo-charges the cyclone's upper outflow by drawing it off quicker. The effect is the storm is allowed to upwell through its heat engine better and therefore get stronger. Its like air flowing through a fire making it hotter.

The ULL is not going "poof" anytime soon - everybody keeps saying that but I still see it on the WV loops. Also, it is what is keeping the intensity somewhat at check - although florence now appears to be winning the battle.

[Sanibel]

Not only more density but a different physical profile where it meets the steering currents.

[Sanibel]

The ULL is not going "poof" anytime soon - everybody keeps saying that but I still see it on the WV loops.

It's already substantially smaller than just 24 hours ago.

Also, it is what is keeping the intensity somewhat at check - although Florence now appears to be winning the battle.

The best answer to that is "2006". But most likely disruption and being squashed between synoptics is what is keeping this from beefing out. We could be seeing thick organization right now. My guess is storms in 2006 get strong when they head north.

[wxman57]

It might help to look at the 700-400mb steering-level winds forecast for Florence to understand why it's not going to be an east U.S. coast threat:

Here's today. Note the high pressure over Florida and a much stronger high NE of Florence:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/florence29.gif

Now tomorrow. An even stronger high over Florida and a trof digging off the east U.S. Coast. Florence will take the easy way out and go north:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/florence30.gif

And just because I thought it would be interesting, look at next Friday's setup. Looks almost Wilma-esque as far as the flow pattern.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/florence31.gif

[gatorcane]

I'm just wondering why the WRF model had it going so far west....the turn *should* happen gradually over the next 24 hours......*should*

[gatorcane]

It might help to look at the 700-400mb steering-level winds forecast for Florence to understand why it's not going to be an east U.S. coast threat:

Here's today. Note the high pressure over Florida and a much stronger high NE of Florence:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/florence29.gif

Now tomorrow. An even stronger high over Florida and a trof digging off the east U.S. Coast. Florence will take the easy way out and go north:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/florence30.gif

And just because I thought it would be interesting, look at next Friday's setup. Looks almost Wilma-esque as far as the flow pattern.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/florence31.gif

interesting graphics...hopefully that High over florida does not lift NE a little and block the turn.

[SouthFloridawx]

It might help to look at the 700-400mb steering-level winds forecast for Florence to understand why it's not going to be an east U.S. coast threat:
Here's today. Note the high pressure over Florida and a much stronger high NE of Florence:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/florence29.gif
Now tomorrow. An even stronger high over Florida and a trof digging off the east U.S. Coast. Florence will take the easy way out and go north:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/florence30.gif
And just because I thought it would be interesting, look at next Friday's setup. Looks almost Wilma-esque as far as the flow pattern.
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/florence31.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_114s.gif

Interesting looking at the 114 Hour GFS develops a massive Upper Leve Low out there in the atlantic.

[Trugunzn]

Starting to get a eye??

[wxman57]

The ULL is not going "poof" anytime soon - everybody keeps saying that but I still see it on the WV loops. Also, it is what is keeping the intensity somewhat at check - although florence now appears to be winning the battle.

Actually, the upper low is going poof now. In 12 hours, there won't be much of it left.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Starting to get a eye??

YES MAYBE We have something here!!!

[CrazyC83]

I don't think that is the center, but I could be wrong.

[gatorcane]

latest visible, notice there is some vorticity showing up well WSW of the center in some new convection:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg

Here is the loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Bailey1777]

A triangular eye would go perfect with such a weirdo system!

[Thatsmrhurricane]

Actually, if 23 59 is the center that could be an eye.

[Meso]

Wow.. finally starting to look physically like a tropical cyclone.. Nice banding and reds starting to wrap around too