Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[SouthFloridawx]

Luis maybe you should post single images rather than a loop. You can post the full loop at the end. Just a suggestion.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS at 168 Hours

I think it's better to post the graphics first and the loop at the end.Thanks SouthFloridawx for the suggestion that I agree.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS loop at 300 Hours

I was going to continue to post the graphics,but they extended to 300 hours now so I think a loop is needed for the members to see where Helene will end up.

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS seems to threaten Nova Scotia

[cycloneye]

Complete 12z GFS Loop

OK the loop is now complete.As I see it,it looks like Helene will be a threat to Bermuda,Nova Scotia and New Foundland.No U.S threat from GFS at 12z.

[Thunder44]

Complete 12z GFS Loop

OK the loop is now complete.As I see it,it looks like Helene will be a threat to Bermuda,Nova Scotia and New Foundland.No U.S threat from GFS at 12z.

That track is too close and at too long a range to signal the all clear for a US threat from the GFS. I know it doesn't make landfall, but it at least comes close enough to Eastern New England to be little concerned.

[hial2]

Towards the end of the loop, what's happening in the Caribe?

[Thunder44]

Complete 12z GFS Loop

OK the loop is now complete.As I see it,it looks like Helene will be a threat to Bermuda,Nova Scotia and New Foundland.No U.S threat from GFS at 12z.

That track is too close and at too long a range to signal the all clear for a US threat from the GFS. I know it doesn't make landfall, but it at least comes close enough to Eastern New England to be little concerned.

In fact, looking at the 500mb the trough goes more negative along the east coast than it did on 6z and 12z runs yesterday. I think it has Helene too far east considering that upper-level pattern it shows. It's a typical GFS east bias.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[wxman57]

Towards the end of the loop, what's happening in the Caribe?

As the major trof axis moves well off the east U.S. Coast in 8-10 days, a ridge will build north of the Caribbean. That's when we'll have to watch for tropical development in the western or southwest Caribbean. Such late-season storms would typically threaten the western Florida Peninsula or turn northeast across the Bahamas, but any development/movement would depend upon timing. Even the central Gulf Coast is not home-free yet this year.

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 171729
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE HELENE 08L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 17

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 20.3 48.6 300./ 8.9
6 20.7 49.2 301./ 7.1
12 21.0 49.7 306./ 5.7
18 21.4 50.2 307./ 6.0
24 22.0 50.6 327./ 6.5
30 22.5 51.1 319./ 6.9
36 22.9 51.7 303./ 6.7
42 23.1 52.4 282./ 7.2
48 23.4 53.3 292./ 8.8
54 23.6 54.1 280./ 7.5
60 23.9 54.9 292./ 8.2
66 24.1 55.9 285./ 9.1
72 24.8 56.6 311./ 9.5
78 25.6 57.3 317./ 9.9
84 26.5 57.8 334./ 9.7
90 27.7 58.2 342./13.1
96 29.1 58.8 336./14.9
102 30.4 59.0 353./13.2
108 31.8 59.0 0./13.4
114 33.1 58.6 15./13.6
120 34.6 58.3 11./15.3
126 36.0 57.9 17./14.2

No change of track from the GFDL model as it's the same as the 6z one recurving at 59w.

[Thunder44]

The 12z UKMET looks farther west, like the GFS or further south, taking South of Bermuda at 144hrs, building ridge to the north.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

12z CMC is also further west, but recurves close to 60W.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[storms in NC]

I think still to early to tell at this time. I think the models will change again. Either back to the east or west. I don't think they have it down yet as far as when the turn will be. But you never know it may make history.LOL

But for real the models will change again and again.

[dixiebreeze]

Luis maybe you should post single images rather than a loop. You can post the full loop at the end. Just a suggestion.

Good idea, especially for those of us with dial-up. Loops simply take forever to download.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 20.1N 48.5W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082006



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 17.09.2006 20.1N 48.5W MODERATE

00UTC 18.09.2006 21.3N 49.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 18.09.2006 22.0N 51.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 19.09.2006 22.4N 52.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 19.09.2006 22.4N 54.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 20.09.2006 22.6N 55.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 20.09.2006 22.7N 57.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 21.09.2006 23.4N 58.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 21.09.2006 24.5N 59.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 22.09.2006 25.6N 60.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 22.09.2006 25.8N 61.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 23.09.2006 26.4N 62.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 23.09.2006 26.5N 64.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12z UKMET Text.

[Steve H.]

Tht 12Z UKMET is interesting. Splits the trough in the central US and part of it goes into Canada while ridging builds over the east, turning Helene west. I agree that the GFS is too slow with Helene. Like to see the Euro at 12Z....anyone seen it yet?

[jusforsean]

Towards the end of the loop, what's happening in the Caribe?

thats my question too!

[deltadog03]

well, if the UKMET is right...not saying it is...then the US has got some prollems.

[Evil Jeremy]

the ukmet is a very reliable model as far as i know.

[ronjon]

Tht 12Z UKMET is interesting. Splits the trough in the central US and part of it goes into Canada while ridging builds over the east, turning Helene west. I agree that the GFS is too slow with Helene. Like to see the Euro at 12Z....anyone seen it yet?

Yeah, the 12Z UKMET is rather ominous isn't it? Almost a due west course the last 24 hrs as the high bridges in north of the storm. It looks alot like the 18Z GFS from yesterday. I agree the Euro would be good to look at as it is highly reliable in forecasting the evolving upper air pattern the next 5-7 days. The UK usually sides with the EC, so the jury is still out on the long term path of Helene.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[HURAKAN]

Major hurricane, anyone?