2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Jr0d]

Mike(spaghetti models) seems to be confident in the GFS's troughs which would keep the next wave of tropical waves from making it to the CONUS.

We will see. While I think there will be enough troughiness to erode the ridge, I do think it will be a small window and the ridge will build back. I would not say the US is safe from Cape Verde systems this soon.

[stormlover2013]

Mike(spaghetti models) seems to be confident in the GFS's troughs which would keep the next wave of tropical waves from making it to the CONUS.

We will see. While I think there will be enough troughiness to erode the ridge, I do think it will be a small window and the ridge will build back. I would not say the US is safe from Cape Verde systems this soon.

spag models are the worse enemy lol

[NDG]

0z GFS-Para continues with its very aggressive runs, I guess we are having our old aggressive GFS back after the upgrade



Its ensembles are also very aggressive.

[Blinhart]

0z GFS-Para continues with its very aggressive runs, I guess we are having our old aggressive GFS back after the upgrade

https://i.imgur.com/e8a9ivt.png

Its ensembles are also very aggressive.

https://i.imgur.com/phiCuCY.png

So if I'm reading this right there will be a home grown major hurricane in the GoM, a Major Hurricane off the East Coast that forms from ???, and another Major Hurricane in the Atlantic from one of those 4 waves that are color coded this morning.

[St0rmTh0r]

0z GFS-Para continues with its very aggressive runs, I guess we are having our old aggressive GFS back after the upgrade

https://i.imgur.com/e8a9ivt.png

Its ensembles are also very aggressive.

https://i.imgur.com/phiCuCY.png

So if I'm reading this right there will be a home grown major hurricane in the GoM, a Major Hurricane off the East Coast that forms from ???, and another Major Hurricane in the Atlantic from one of those 4 waves that are color coded this morning.

Yea that's 2020!

[TheStormExpert]

0z GFS-Para continues with its very aggressive runs, I guess we are having our old aggressive GFS back after the upgrade

https://i.imgur.com/e8a9ivt.png

Its ensembles are also very aggressive.

https://i.imgur.com/phiCuCY.png

Not sure if I believe this run of the GFS-Parallel.

[AutoPenalti]

0z GFS-Para continues with its very aggressive runs, I guess we are having our old aggressive GFS back after the upgrade

https://i.imgur.com/e8a9ivt.png

Its ensembles are also very aggressive.

https://i.imgur.com/phiCuCY.png

Not sure if I believe this run of the GFS-Parallel.

Of course not! The amount of headassery in resolving fujiwhara-esque runs resulting in some odd majors at the same time AND not to mention the trough teleconnection from the WPAC typhoons is insane.

[Hurricaneman]

I think the Euro might have better interpretation of what’s going on than the GFS, the GFS seems to be fujiwaraing everything while the Euro moves things right along

[SFLcane]

GFS para long range taking second wave highlighted by nhc towards FL. Fantasy land

[LarryWx]

Compared to just 48 hours ago, the good news is that the consensus of the various ensembles is so much less threatening to the CONUS and Bahamas from MDR systems due to recurves way OTS. Even today’s 0Z EPS is less threatening than that run from yesterday regarding the wave expected to emerge from Africa ~Sept 9.

That still doesn’t mean no threat yet. Also, we can’t see beyond this period as MDR storms can still threaten later in the month, especially in La Niña. But I still say the bigger threat for the next 7-10 days or so will probably be from something forming much closer, including possible homegrown. Hopefully not but something to keep an eye on.

[SFLcane]

Compared to just 48 hours ago, the good news is that the consensus of the various ensembles is so much less threatening to the CONUS and Bahamas from MDR systems due to recurves way OTS. Even today’s 0Z EPS is less threatening than that run from yesterday regarding the wave expected to emerge from Africa ~Sept 9.

That still doesn’t mean no threat yet. But I still say the bigger threat for the next 7-10 days or so will probably be from something forming much closer, including possible homegrown. Hopefully not but something to keep an eye on.

Larry thoughts on the second wave highlighted by the nhc para driving it further westward last couple runs. Long range

[Spacecoast]

GFS-Para Ensembles trend

[LarryWx]

Compared to just 48 hours ago, the good news is that the consensus of the various ensembles is so much less threatening to the CONUS and Bahamas from MDR systems due to recurves way OTS. Even today’s 0Z EPS is less threatening than that run from yesterday regarding the wave expected to emerge from Africa ~Sept 9.

That still doesn’t mean no threat yet. But I still say the bigger threat for the next 7-10 days or so will probably be from something forming much closer, including possible homegrown. Hopefully not but something to keep an eye on.

Larry thoughts on the second wave highlighted by the nhc para driving it further westward last couple runs. Long range

They are outliers, even when compared to their own ensembles (para). Furthermore, they’re in cartoonland. So, I wouldn’t worry much about it until if and when the various ensembles do more with it (sort of like what that EPS run of yesterday that had ~12-13 threatening members out of 51 as even today’s 0Z has backed down quite a bit from that).

[USTropics]

0z GFS-Para continues with its very aggressive runs, I guess we are having our old aggressive GFS back after the upgrade

https://i.imgur.com/e8a9ivt.png

Its ensembles are also very aggressive.

https://i.imgur.com/phiCuCY.png

This fits with the past 4 EMCWF ensemble runs:


As always we're looking at an almost 2 week forecast, but some semblance of agreement between the GFS/ECMWF camps that the wave coming off Africa soon has decent chances of genesis in this vicinity. We'll see if consistency remains. The models have started to resolve the longwave pattern over NA in the 5-7 day range with some agreement between camps (a cutoff low diving SW is becoming increasingly likely), but what comes of the monsoon gyre in the east Atlantic remains a mystery.

One other thing to note, the evolution of the trough over the central Atlantic is super important. Ignoring where the GFS is showing genesis currently, just focus on how the past 6 runs have trended with a weaker and slightly further NE location with each run of the trough.

[drezee]

I do not like the look of the 12z 500mb pattern and trends. Spliting the US yrough and looks to lokk in a blocking ridge. Still a path out but anything that makes it past 60W is a problem.

[LarryWx]

I do not like the look of the 12z 500mb pattern and trends. Spliting the US yrough and looks to lokk in a blocking ridge. Still a path out but anything that makes it past 60W is a problem.

Yes, if any CV system got past 60W it could be a problem based on this pattern. However, the ensembles are clearly saying that this same pattern is fortunately also making it very difficult for any CV system to get far enough west to be a problem with very early recurving strongly favored. The higher risk for the first half of Sept is from something originating already underneath the WAR (much closer to the CONUS). Hopefully nothing from there and the US could rest easy for a change, but we’ll have to see.

[WeatherEmperor]

Look at this monster the Euro has moving WNW towards the islands. It has been showing this a few runs now. Lets hope future Euro runs has this missing the islands to the north




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[toad strangler]

12z Euro shows a potential problem for islands / CONUS at 10 days

[cycloneye]

A powerhouse but will it miss the islands?

[TheStormExpert]

A powerhouse but will it miss the islands?

https://i.imgur.com/EngPj9T.gif

Likely not with that ridge overhead, but it’s 10 days out.