ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[NDG]

A lot forecasts are going to bust if El Nino does come to fruition as forecasted by the ECMWF.

In the past two weeks Nino 3 Region has cooled down nicely.

[Kingarabian]

Is there a way to check when the MJO returns to the pacific?

[cycloneye]

Here is a good loop of the Pacific from January 5th to April 26th that shows how it warms and cools in periods.Notice at the last frames how the cooling returns.

[Ntxw]

Is there a way to check when the MJO returns to the pacific?

MJO information can be found on the CPC site along with ENSO and various other products. Just find it on the left panel.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

The MJO is currently over the Maritime continent region (Indonesia) and sprouting convection in the western pacific in a weakened state. As a response, on cue the daily SOI has tanked the past two days. Fluctuations will continue through May, my guess is another tank mid month as possibly a stronger wave might commence.

[joshb19882004]

daily soi has sharply droped negative http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... soivalues/

[Kingarabian]

Is there a way to check when the MJO returns to the pacific?

MJO information can be found on the CPC site along with ENSO and various other products. Just find it on the left panel.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

The MJO is currently over the Maritime continent region (Indonesia) and sprouting convection in the western pacific in a weakened state. As a response, on cue the daily SOI has tanked the past two days. Fluctuations will continue through May, my guess is another tank mid month as possibly a stronger wave might commence.

Thanks <3.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 4/30/12 update

Nino 3.4 is more warmer in this update -0.1C and that is up from -0.4C that was last week.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[SoupBone]

A lot forecasts are going to bust if El Nino does come to fruition as forecasted by the ECMWF.

In the past two weeks Nino 3 Region has cooled down nicely.

Can you explain this a little? I'm pretty unfamiliar with this area of Meteorology.

[cycloneye]

What a swing to the up side,as is the first time I see that CFSv2 goes to Moderate El Nino.



http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product ... cfsv2fcst/

[Ntxw]

90 day SOI is running consistently negative, not quite enough for El Nino while the 30 day average has been consistent with warm neutral. 2002 and 2009 have been consistent analogs regarding evolution of ENSO so far this year.

[Kingarabian]

When does the Euro update?

[cycloneye]

When does the Euro update?

The operational ENSO along with the latest MSLP updates on the 15th and the Eurosip ensembles on the 22nd.

[Ntxw]

Last bit of cool anomalies is hanging to dear life underneath the surface. Question is when will the warm pool upwell and signal the coming Nino?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov...enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml

[CrazyC83]

Could this be setting up like 1982-83 or 1997-98?

[Ptarmigan]

Could this be setting up like 1982-83 or 1997-98?

If I am correct, the Pacific was in a warmer phase in 1982-1983 and 1997-1998. Interesting you mentioned it, since some of the models are calling for strong El Nino.

[NDG]

I don't know if I want to use 2009 as an Analog year for 2012.
ENSO in 2009 had a much faster warm up during late April and into May, currently is not doing so, unless it changes during the month of May I am not including 2009 as an Analog year.

2002 fits better.

Current:


Same time in 2009

[Ntxw]

I don't know if I want to use 2009 as an Analog year for 2012.
ENSO in 2009 had a much faster warm up during late April and into May, currently is not doing so, unless it changes during the month of May I am not including 2009 as an Analog year.

2002 fits better.

.

No two enso's are exactly alike or evolve the exact same way. 2009 is a good longterm analog because of nina-nina-nino. There are few of those so it's included in the pool. Wxman posted a graph somewhere how the enso 3.4 rise and falls for the past year has resembled similarly to the 08-09 frame. However, 09 was forecasting a moderate nino and as of now a weak to maybe moderate nino

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center May update issued on 5/3/12

They forecast Neutral conditions to last thru the Summer (July,August and September) After that is still uncertain what will occur.Ntxw,what is your take on this May CPC update?


Synopsis: La Niña has transitioned to ENSO-neutral conditions, which are expected to continue through northern summer 2012.

La Niña dissipated during April 2012, as below-average SSTs weakened across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean and above-average SSTs persisted in the east (Fig. 1). The Niño 4 and Niño 3.4 indices were warmer than -0.5oC throughout the month, and the Niño 3 and Niño 1+2 indices remained positive (Fig. 2). The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) anomalies also became positive in April (Fig. 3), as below-average sub-surface temperatures largely disappeared and above-average sub-surface temperatures expanded in both the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). Consistent with the demise of La Niña, enhanced trade winds and reduced convection over the central equatorial Pacific were much weakened during April, and the area of enhanced convection that had previously dominated the western Pacific and Indonesia became disorganized (Fig. 5). Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric patterns indicate a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions.

The current and evolving conditions, combined with model forecasts (Fig. 6), suggest that La Niña is unlikely to re-develop later this year. A majority of models predict ENSO-neutral conditions to continue from April-June (AMJ) through the June-August (JJA) season (Fig. 6). However, at least half of the dynamical models predict development of El Niño conditions by JJA. Still, from JJA onward there is considerable forecast uncertainty as to whether ENSO-neutral or El Niño conditions will prevail, due largely to the inability to predict whether the warmer SST will result in the ocean-atmosphere coupling required for a sustained El Niño event. The official forecast calls for ENSO-neutral conditions through JAS, followed by approximately equal chances of Neutral or El Niño conditions for the remainder of the year (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

[wxman57]

Note that it's the statistical models predicting neutral, the dynamic models all agree on El Nino, which is where I think the Pacific is heading.

[Ntxw]

I concur with Wxman. Statistical models have an average out factor the longer you go moreso. April told us La Nina will likely not return and May should be able to tell us if El Nino will come or stay neutral. If the ocean temps don't warm enough through May we probably won't see nino conditions in time for tropical season. We have the warm pool underneath the surface, will need bursts of westerlies to bring it to the surface. Have to keep monitoring the MJO