ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[ROCK]

Is it possible that all the models are wrong

no but maybe timing is off by a few months...leaving neutral conditions for the peak....

[Kingarabian]

Is it possible that all the models are wrong

no but maybe timing is off by a few months...leaving neutral conditions for the peak....

Then I guess El-Nino would be delayed until the 2013 season right? That's if there is next season...

[ROCK]

Is it possible that all the models are wrong

no but maybe timing is off by a few months...leaving neutral conditions for the peak....

Then I guess El-Nino would be delayed until the 2013 season right? That's if there is next season...

no i think it will be delayed and squash the late season, Oct and Nov.....JMO though...

[Ptarmigan]

Is it possible that all the models are wrong

no but maybe timing is off by a few months...leaving neutral conditions for the peak....

I think there will be an El Nino. Most likely weak to moderate.

['CaneFreak]

My own personal opinion is that this year will be very similar to 2004 in terms of the locations that will be under the gun from landfalling TCs and exactly when the majority of the activity will take place (early season) before cutting off later in the season (October/November). However, it could be that the El Nino comes late and stays very weak. In this case, the late season activity would most likely not be affected as much.

[Hurricaneman]

My own personal opinion is that this year will be very similar to 2004 in terms of the locations that will be under the gun from landfalling TCs and exactly when the majority of the activity will take place (early season) before cutting off later in the season (October/November). However, it could be that the El Nino comes late and stays very weak. In this case, the late season activity would most likely not be affected as much.

I have candles, water and canned goods stashed away in storage in case what youre saying happens, and quite frankly I feel like 2004 could be a very close analog for landfall locals especially if its a warm neutral to weak el nino

[ROCK]

My own personal opinion is that this year will be very similar to 2004 in terms of the locations that will be under the gun from landfalling TCs and exactly when the majority of the activity will take place (early season) before cutting off later in the season (October/November). However, it could be that the El Nino comes late and stays very weak. In this case, the late season activity would most likely not be affected as much.

totally on board with your opinion....

[cycloneye]

The daily soi is today in positive and the 30 day soi starts to climb again. In short,it means El Nino will not come anytime soon at least in the next few weeks.

Code: Select all

31 May 2012

1012.21

1011.80

-8.56

-2.02

-2.34



1 Jun 2012

1013.48

1010.80

9.77

-1.18

-2.43


http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... soivalues/

[Ntxw]

Ok lets try this one more time. Should take this with a grain of salt given the lack of verification in May. The key players (Ukmet, Euro) are indicating a significant awakening of the MJO/Kelvin wave by the summer solstice. Meanwhile the PDO index has been rising since slightly since March. Back in late feb or early march I predicted El nino to arrive by mid June, 2 weeks to go to have that verify.

MJO
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

Verification purposes:

What is your take on this forecast that has the majority of them at Dead center Neutral to Warm Neutral by August,September and October?

Very neat info. It is surprising that the cooling waters from the US west coast have had a say in things even though off South America it's been warm. I think models like to follow and trend what is happening now (warm they go warm cool they go cool). I think best bet is to call neutral till mid summer. Southern hemisphere will go into their winter and if waters off South America are still warm then we can bet EL Nino (probably a weak one for fall or winter 2012) as waters of the US/Mexican coast warm up for their summer. Cool anomalies should get washed by then.

Also the sun's solar cycle peak is on it's way which usually says El Nino. Upper wind patterns in the equatorial pacific is still la nina favor which is interesting but are showing some signs of weakening. Neutral till mid summer then weak El Nino for peak of tropical season is what I think. Thanks for all the neat updates! Trying to learn all aspects of weather aside from the winter forum

[cycloneye]

Ntxw, the 30 day SOI doesn't want to surpass the -8 threshold,as it keeps stairstepping.

[Yellow Evan]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm thinking neutral till August, El Nino afterword. Should affect the EPAC quite a bit, and shorten the season after mid-Septetember in the ATL.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 6/4/12 update

Nino 3.4 is now at warm neutral +0.2C and that is up from 0.0C that was for the past two weeks which means that today ENSO is more closer to have El Nino than ever before. The threshold of El Nino is at +0.5C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

Hm interesting. It is fascinating that overall since April positive SOI's have not meant cooling of ENSO but only held it steady. Yet the bursts of -SOI's have risen ENSO by bits at a time. The major models continue to forecast a large uptick of the MJO into phases 8/1 near the summer solstice.

[Yellow Evan]

Climate Prediction Center 6/4/12 update

Nino 3.4 is now at warm neutral +0.2C and that is up from 0.0C that was for the past two weeks which means that today ENSO is more closer to have El Nino than ever before. The threshold of El Nino is at +0.5C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Yay! El Nino very likely now.

[ROCK]

maybe so....but for all you Texas folks here is something to think about.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/topics/attach/html/ssd97-37.htm

[Nikki]

Interesting read Rock, thanks for sharing!!

[ROCK]

Interesting read Rock, thanks for sharing!!

goes to show that partial EL Nino years have had an impact along the Texas coast...and some big ones too...

[Nikki]

Interesting read Rock, thanks for sharing!!

goes to show that partial EL Nino years have had an impact along the Texas coast...and some big ones too...

Well IF anything was to impact us here, we will be ready, and I am proud to say I live in a state, city, and community that will come together and help each other out through any storm, so we will be just fine!!

[Ptarmigan]

maybe so....but for all you Texas folks here is something to think about.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/topics/attach/html/ssd97-37.htm

That is rather interesting article. Makes think El Nino seasons are no less dangerous just because less storms form.

[Kingarabian]

Very interesting uptick.