2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[USTropics]

It'll come out on the 5th

So he has this data already?

Yes it's possible. The big time subscribers are always given first priority.

It's actually public data he's using from here https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/mofc_multi_tcyc_family_frequency?base_time=202108020000&parameter=Accumulated%20cyclone%20energy&valid_time=202108080000.

These are all units of ACE over climo normal, so for example if it says 1.2 ACE forecast mean it means 120% ACE above climo normal for that week.

First week of August the Atlantic is projected to have 1.1 ACE (110%)
Second week of August the Atlantic is projected to have 1.6 ACE (160%)
Third week of August the Atlantic is projected to have 1.4 ACE (140%)
Fourth week of August the Atlantic is projected to have 0.9 ACE (90%)

Average for the next 4 weeks is 1.25 units (125% ACE) above climo normal.

The forecast from 3 days ago, 07/29 (https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/mofc_multi_tcyc_family_frequency?base_time=202107290000&parameter=Accumulated%20cyclone%20energy&valid_time=202108080000)

First week of August the Atlantic is projected to have 0.3 ACE (30%)
Second week of August the Atlantic is projected to have 0.4 ACE (40%)
Third week of August the Atlantic is projected to have 0.7 ACE (70%)
Fourth week of August the Atlantic is projected to have 0.8 ACE (80%)

Average for the next 4 weeks is 0.55 units (55%) above climo normal.

[Jr0d]

I’m getting doubtful of CSU and TSR’s July forecasts for 20 named storms. It is possible, but now a lot less likely due to the huge break in activity. To hit 20 NS, we would need to see 4 in August, 8 in September (the second highest on record), and 3 in the rest of the season. This could also be accomplished with a very backloaded season like 2020, although that would probably be the worst scenario since late-season storms would likely form closer to land.

20 NS isn’t impossible, but I’d put it at the upper limit of possible outcomes. 15 NS would be the lower limit. We’ll have to wait and see how bonkers peak season gets.

Remember last year and got the 2nd half of August, climatology one of the busiest times if the year, was slow....if I recall correctly we were even getting season over posts when nothing was developing.

I expect a busy 2nd half of August through mid October.

That said, almost every mid August(except last year) it is as if someone flips a switch and turns on the tropical Atlantic.

[Kingarabian]

So he has this data already?

Yes it's possible. The big time subscribers are always given first priority.

It's actually public data he's using from here https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/mofc_multi_tcyc_family_frequency?base_time=202108020000&parameter=Accumulated%20cyclone%20energy&valid_time=202108080000.

These are all units of ACE over climo normal, so for example if it says 1.2 ACE forecast mean it means 120% ACE above climo normal for that week.

First week of August the Atlantic is projected to have 1.1 ACE (110%)
Second week of August the Atlantic is projected to have 1.6 ACE (160%)
Third week of August the Atlantic is projected to have 1.4 ACE (140%)
Fourth week of August the Atlantic is projected to have 0.9 ACE (90%)

Average for the next 4 weeks is 1.25 units (125% ACE) above climo normal.

The forecast from 3 days ago, 07/29 (https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/mofc_multi_tcyc_family_frequency?base_time=202107290000&parameter=Accumulated%20cyclone%20energy&valid_time=202108080000)

First week of August the Atlantic is projected to have 0.3 ACE (30%)
Second week of August the Atlantic is projected to have 0.4 ACE (40%)
Third week of August the Atlantic is projected to have 0.7 ACE (70%)
Fourth week of August the Atlantic is projected to have 0.8 ACE (80%)

Average for the next 4 weeks is 0.55 units (55%) above climo normal.

Ah wow had no idea ECMWF is giving them out for free now. Oddly enough, in the graphics you posted, the model also shows almost the same numbers for the EPAC.

[SFLcane]

Rather dramátic change in probability of tropical storm in latest EPS vs. previous! Thanks to Yaakov for sending me the maps.





Here is the change for third week of Aug (Aug 15-22) vs old run.



Link ~~~> https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/openchar ... 2108080000

[BYG Jacob]

JB is nakedly influenced by politics and the need for attention, please don't post his takes on here.

[toad strangler]

JB is a pompous loudmouth who likes to be a showman and has an affinity for my backyard bias but he ain’t stupid. I wouldn’t discount his content. He is a talented met underneath all the Hollywood

[SFLcane]

Looks like GEFS was all bias after all.

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1422536557463064579

[NotSparta]

Yes it's possible. The big time subscribers are always given first priority.

It's actually public data he's using from here https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/mofc_multi_tcyc_family_frequency?base_time=202108020000&parameter=Accumulated%20cyclone%20energy&valid_time=202108080000.

These are all units of ACE over climo normal, so for example if it says 1.2 ACE forecast mean it means 120% ACE above climo normal for that week.

First week of August the Atlantic is projected to have 1.1 ACE (110%)
Second week of August the Atlantic is projected to have 1.6 ACE (160%)
Third week of August the Atlantic is projected to have 1.4 ACE (140%)
Fourth week of August the Atlantic is projected to have 0.9 ACE (90%)

Average for the next 4 weeks is 1.25 units (125% ACE) above climo normal.

The forecast from 3 days ago, 07/29 (https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/mofc_multi_tcyc_family_frequency?base_time=202107290000&parameter=Accumulated%20cyclone%20energy&valid_time=202108080000)

First week of August the Atlantic is projected to have 0.3 ACE (30%)
Second week of August the Atlantic is projected to have 0.4 ACE (40%)
Third week of August the Atlantic is projected to have 0.7 ACE (70%)
Fourth week of August the Atlantic is projected to have 0.8 ACE (80%)

Average for the next 4 weeks is 0.55 units (55%) above climo normal.

Ah wow had no idea ECMWF is giving them out for free now. Oddly enough, in the graphics you posted, the model also shows almost the same numbers for the EPAC.

Yeah there are a lot more free Euro maps now

[NDG]

Another look at the sypnotic pattern so far this hurricane season, a definite threat for the whole eastern US even into the eastern GOM.

[aspen]

Looks like GEFS was all bias after all.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1422536557463064579

If that holds and the trend continues, looks like the MDR into parts of the Caribbean would be rather favorable for genesis, at least shear wise. Anything out there will still need to avoid the last of the SAL and stay at around 13N or south until it gets to like 50-55W to be within conductive SSTs.

There are so many waves currently in the Atlantic and set to roll off of Africa in the next week that odds at least something tries to develop by mid-month. The one at ~65W is probably toast, but there are three others between 20-45W, that 10/10 AOI (which also won’t last long but is worth mentioning), the wave expected to make splashdown on Thursday night, and probably at least one more in the following week.

[wxman57]

Euro is forecasting an additional 13 named storms in the Atlantic, with 7 hurricanes. Below-normal in the East Pac with an additional 9 named storms with 4 hurricanes there. Sounds about right. Activity should pick up the last half of August with quite a bit of activity in September and October. Building La Nina through the fall/winter may make for a late ending season. Hurricane to threaten the FL Peninsula in mid-October, I guarantee it. Right before my trip to Disney...

I still think the MDR will NOT be a very hospitable place for strong storms again this season. Too much dry, sinking air again (like the last couple of years).

[SFLcane]

Another look at the sypnotic pattern so far this hurricane season, a definite threat for the whole eastern US even into the eastern GOM.

https://i.imgur.com/tMuZBVS.gif

Updated NMME comes out the 13th should be interesting.

[SFLcane]

Euro is forecasting an additional 13 named storms in the Atlantic, with 7 hurricanes. Below-normal in the East Pac with an additional 9 named storms with 4 hurricanes there. Sounds about right. Activity should pick up the last half of August with quite a bit of activity in September and October. Building La Nina through the fall/winter may make for a late ending season. Hurricane to threaten the FL Peninsula in mid-October, I guarantee it. Right before my trip to Disney...

I still think the MDR will NOT be a very hospitable place for strong storms again this season. Too much dry, sinking air again (like the last couple of years).

That’s great so we’re are they all going to develop? Near the conus unfortunately

[cycloneye]

Euro is forecasting an additional 13 named storms in the Atlantic, with 7 hurricanes. Below-normal in the East Pac with an additional 9 named storms with 4 hurricanes there. Sounds about right. Activity should pick up the last half of August with quite a bit of activity in September and October. Building La Nina through the fall/winter may make for a late ending season. Hurricane to threaten the FL Peninsula in mid-October, I guarantee it. Right before my trip to Disney...

I still think the MDR will NOT be a very hospitable place for strong storms again this season. Too much dry, sinking air again (like the last couple of years).

I know you have clients so I ask what is your forecast for the NE Caribbean Islands?

[Category5Kaiju]

Euro is forecasting an additional 13 named storms in the Atlantic, with 7 hurricanes. Below-normal in the East Pac with an additional 9 named storms with 4 hurricanes there. Sounds about right. Activity should pick up the last half of August with quite a bit of activity in September and October. Building La Nina through the fall/winter may make for a late ending season. Hurricane to threaten the FL Peninsula in mid-October, I guarantee it. Right before my trip to Disney...

I still think the MDR will NOT be a very hospitable place for strong storms again this season. Too much dry, sinking air again (like the last couple of years).

I know you have clients so I ask what is your forecast for the NE Caribbean Islands?

I second this question, I have a few friends down in Puerto Rico who have been really been wondering and worrying whether they will be ok this season given another major hurricane strike (let alone a Cat 4 or 5) would be unimaginably bad especially with many places still recovering from Maria

[aspen]

Euro is forecasting an additional 13 named storms in the Atlantic, with 7 hurricanes. Below-normal in the East Pac with an additional 9 named storms with 4 hurricanes there. Sounds about right. Activity should pick up the last half of August with quite a bit of activity in September and October. Building La Nina through the fall/winter may make for a late ending season. Hurricane to threaten the FL Peninsula in mid-October, I guarantee it. Right before my trip to Disney...

I still think the MDR will NOT be a very hospitable place for strong storms again this season. Too much dry, sinking air again (like the last couple of years).

Phew, 18 total NS and 8 total hurricanes from the Euro. That’s quite aggressive from a model that has continuously underestimated all of the seasons in this recent active streak.

Even if the MDR remains similarly stable as 2018-2020, I still think we’ll see at least one significant storm come from there. 2018 had Florence, 2019 had Lorenzo (and I guess maybe Dorian since it did form in the western MDR), and 2020 had Teddy. Hopefully if one does form, it stays out to sea and becomes a harmless but interesting ACE generator.

[Category5Kaiju]

Euro is forecasting an additional 13 named storms in the Atlantic, with 7 hurricanes. Below-normal in the East Pac with an additional 9 named storms with 4 hurricanes there. Sounds about right. Activity should pick up the last half of August with quite a bit of activity in September and October. Building La Nina through the fall/winter may make for a late ending season. Hurricane to threaten the FL Peninsula in mid-October, I guarantee it. Right before my trip to Disney...

I still think the MDR will NOT be a very hospitable place for strong storms again this season. Too much dry, sinking air again (like the last couple of years).

Phew, 18 total NS and 8 total hurricanes from the Euro. That’s quite aggressive from a model that has continuously underestimated all of the seasons in this recent active streak.

Even if the MDR remains similarly stable as 2018-2020, I still think we’ll see at least one significant storm come from there. 2018 had Florence, 2019 had Lorenzo (and I guess maybe Dorian since it did form in the western MDR), and 2020 had Teddy. Hopefully if one does form, it stays out to sea and becomes a harmless but interesting ACE generator.

Don't forget 2017's Jose and Ophelia; they stayed off to sea and did little damage

[toad strangler]

Euro is forecasting an additional 13 named storms in the Atlantic, with 7 hurricanes. Below-normal in the East Pac with an additional 9 named storms with 4 hurricanes there. Sounds about right. Activity should pick up the last half of August with quite a bit of activity in September and October. Building La Nina through the fall/winter may make for a late ending season. Hurricane to threaten the FL Peninsula in mid-October, I guarantee it. Right before my trip to Disney...

I still think the MDR will NOT be a very hospitable place for strong storms again this season. Too much dry, sinking air again (like the last couple of years).

I know you have clients so I ask what is your forecast for the NE Caribbean Islands?

I second this question, I have a few friends down in Puerto Rico who have been really been wondering and worrying whether they will be ok this season given another major hurricane strike (let alone a Cat 4 or 5) would be unimaginably bad especially with many places still recovering from Maria

Specific locations are impossible to answer that finely. Get you preps completed! That’s what an outlook like that says. No matter where you are in the western basin including the LA and GA’s.

[AlphaToOmega]

I believe the Antilles (Lesser and Greater) are at risk this season. My best steering analog for 2021 is 1995, for it was a season with a strong ridge near SE Canada, +NAO, La Nina, and Atlantic Nino. In 1995, Hurricanes Luis and Marilyn affected the Antilles. Combined they caused $5.4G in damage and 32 deaths. I believe 2021 has a high likelihood of having hurricanes with similar tracks. 1995 also had a VP anomaly pattern quite similar to the one forecasted for ASO 2021, and its TNA was positive during ASO, just like what is forecasted to happen this year.

[SFLcane]

Another look at the sypnotic pattern so far this hurricane season, a definite threat for the whole eastern US even into the eastern GOM.

https://i.imgur.com/tMuZBVS.gif

Honestly it Depends on where stuff forms. What's that composite look like over the last month?