2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[AutoPenalti]

https://i.postimg.cc/hvW33tS3/eps.png

Looks fishy but will change of course.

[aspen]

The 9/6 wave appears on the 18z GFS. So far no development about a day or two after splashdown.

EDIT: development @204hrs heading due W or WNW.

[cheezyWXguy]

The 9/6 wave appears on the 18z GFS. So far no development about a day or two after splashdown.

EDIT: development @204hrs heading due W or WNW.

I don’t know if this has shown up on other models, but if this ends up being a trend, I’ll be paying attention. Not a fan of how that ridge is building above it

[aspen]

The 9/6 wave appears on the 18z GFS. So far no development about a day or two after splashdown.

EDIT: development @204hrs heading due W or WNW.

I don’t know if this has shown up on other models, but if this ends up being a trend, I’ll be paying attention. Not a fan of how that ridge is building above it

It first popped up on the CMC, then the Euro caught on not much later. Both show a high end TS or hurricane in the MDR by the end of their runs, and the EPS is quite active.

[Hurricaneman]

The 9/6 wave appears on the 18z GFS. So far no development about a day or two after splashdown.

EDIT: development @204hrs heading due W or WNW.

Based on the models, the wave over Nigeria needs to be monitored due to basically all the models developing it next week and it seems to be a more compact wave which might be better off due to being more compact instead of more spread out like 91L or the wave off the African coast

[aspen]

GFS kills the 9/6 system near the NE Caribbean due to a TUTT or some kind of ULL. I honestly don’t know how to distinguish them without someone with more experience pointing them out. Regardless, this is over 300 hours out and probably won’t verify, just like a major at this same location and time probably wouldn’t verify either.

[Iceresistance]

GFS kills the 9/6 system near the NE Caribbean due to a TUTT or some kind of ULL. I honestly don’t know how to distinguish them without someone with more experience pointing them out. Regardless, this is over 300 hours out and probably won’t verify, just like a major at this same location and time probably wouldn’t verify either.

This, however, means that the next big TW (On 9/6 as mentioned above) has surprisingly strong model consistency this far out.

[Teban54]

GFS kills the 9/6 system near the NE Caribbean due to a TUTT or some kind of ULL. I honestly don’t know how to distinguish them without someone with more experience pointing them out. Regardless, this is over 300 hours out and probably won’t verify, just like a major at this same location and time probably wouldn’t verify either.

This, however, means that the next big TW (On 9/6 as mentioned above) has surprisingly strong model consistency this far out.

To be fair... The wave that's currently off the African coast had similar model consistency a week before splash down. During the week, models started to favor 91L more instead.

[SFLcane]

91L 2.0

[LarryWx]

Per the last few EPS runs and other ensemble runs, an AEW coming off Africa near 9/6 may be one the CONUS would need to worry about based on a good portion of members at low latitude and moving quite far west within the MDR through 9/11, but that would'nt be til ~9/18 or later.

[gatorcane]

Does anybody know what is wrong with the GFS model? It seems to blow up everything into a major. It is like it is not seeing the dry air or something. The Euro is doing much better so it is either the data going into the GFS or something that has change in the code. Thinking the former but I do know the core algorithm for how it detects genesis is different than the GEFS (using latest FV3 I thought).

[BobHarlem]

This popped up on the 18z gfs

[SoupBone]

This popped up on the 18z gfs
https://i.imgur.com/ie6ig2I.png

We should definitely trust the GFS this time.

[aspen]

GFS and Euro now have absolutely nothing after Danielle and 91L. That should be incredibly unlikely, but this is 2022 we’re talking about.

[Category5Kaiju]

GFS and Euro now have absolutely nothing after Danielle and 91L. That should be incredibly unlikely, but this is 2022 we’re talking about.

Yeah, as much as I want to believe that that may pan out, simply “because it’s 2022” imho really isn’t a good, scientifically rooted verification. I think we’re bound to see some more September activity, and Danielle may be a sign that things may change. Plus that was just one isolated run. CMC has stuff though

[aspen]

GFS and Euro now have absolutely nothing after Danielle and 91L. That should be incredibly unlikely, but this is 2022 we’re talking about.

Yeah, as much as I want to believe that that may pan out, simply “because it’s 2022” imho really isn’t a good, scientifically rooted verification. I think we’re bound to see some more September activity, and Danielle may be a sign that things may change. Plus that was just one isolated run. CMC has stuff though

ICON too. All of a sudden, both are trying to develop a wave that exits on 9/4 and stays further SW than 94L. Sure it never becomes much, but it’s something.

Also the GFS hasn’t shown that 9/6 system since yesterday’s 12z run. Sometimes I can see the wave, but it just shuts down the entire tropical Atlantic and doesn’t develop a single wave after 91L.

[Category5Kaiju]

GFS and Euro now have absolutely nothing after Danielle and 91L. That should be incredibly unlikely, but this is 2022 we’re talking about.

Yeah, as much as I want to believe that that may pan out, simply “because it’s 2022” imho really isn’t a good, scientifically rooted verification. I think we’re bound to see some more September activity, and Danielle may be a sign that things may change. Plus that was just one isolated run. CMC has stuff though

ICON too. All of a sudden, both are trying to develop a wave that exits on 9/4 and stays further SW than 94L. Sure it never becomes much, but it’s something.

Also the GFS hasn’t shown that 9/6 system since yesterday’s 12z run. Sometimes I can see the wave, but it just shuts down the entire tropical Atlantic and doesn’t develop a single wave after 91L.

I think the culprit may have to do with the GFS once again blowing up strong storms in the EPAC and creating Nino-like conditions in the Atlantic (WPAC doesn't have much after Hinnamnor leaves the picture). While I do think the EPAC may see a burst in activity (like it does more often than not even in La Nina years), I simply cannot see how any of those storms will become like major monsters as the GFS suggests; I think that may be artificially overamplifying the unfavorable Atlantic conditions.

[aspen]

The GFS still has a completely dead basin after Danielle and 91L, and the CMC is the only model now to show the 9/6 wave developing.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The GFS still has a completely dead basin after Danielle and 91L, and the CMC is the only model now to show the 9/6 wave developing.

Yeah, not a sign one would be looking for to indicate a very active September.*

*with the usual caveat that this is still 10+ days out and probably will change, before anyone jumps down my throat.

[Category5Kaiju]

The GFS still has a completely dead basin after Danielle and 91L, and the CMC is the only model now to show the 9/6 wave developing.

Well it also doesn’t show anything really concrete in the Pacific after Hinnamnor or the second EPAC system, so I am assuming it thinks all three basins will be dead in mid-September? Hmm, idk about that