So, let's do a bit of analysis here. It seems like a lot of comparisons with 2022 are popping up, so I'm going to compare the current sst anomalies with the ones of that year.
2022:
2024:
Interestingly, we can note that both years (for reasons I'm not entirely sure of, however) featured well-above average water temperatures off the Eastern Canadian coast. So, one might think that that might be a major TC-inhibiting factor and the reason for the current dearth of major model activity. Possible, but unlike 2022, this year still managed to produce two hurricanes, including a Category 2, alongside that kind of sst configuration this month. Additionally, we can see that 2022 had a very cool Canary Current, which iirc was a prime culprit for the infamous "wave-breaking" pattern that completely shut down August. Also unlike 2022 is the fact that this year, we have very warm deep tropical waters that (presumably) would counter whatever negative factors the warm Canadian waters may have on tropical action.
So this brings me to my next point. What if...just what if...the strong El Nino from last year is actually still relevant to this year? A good comparison in that sense would be 2016. Both 2024 and 2016 followed years with substantial El Ninos and were entering -ENSO by the peak of hurricane season. In fact, 2016 featured a very inactive September (although it did have quite some August action, including a major hurricane that month), which transitioned to an active and destructive October (with Matthew being the headline of that season). Similarly, we already saw a major hurricane this year in the form of Beryl (albeit its strength and location completely alien based on the time of occurrence). Here's the sst map for 2016 by the same time of the year.
Now here's the thing. Personally, I don't think we're going to see a 2016-like September simply because deep tropics-wise at least, we're so much warmer at this point in time, which would theoretically mean more instability and storm fuel. At the same time, I can't help but wonder if we're going to see a "delayed by not denied" peak for this season. And with that being said, although it currently MAY NOT SEEM as if we'll hit hyperactivity, let alone those unnatural 200+ ACE predictions, there's only so much we can do now that would definitively answer the question of whether or not we see a long-lived, late season storm (such as the 1932 Cuba Hurricane, Inez, Georges, or Matthew) that ends up really boosting our total ACE despite models, for obvious reasons, not even seeing that far out. Dare I say it, I think we're arguably, in a sense, flying in the dark, and our best virtues would be to discuss what's happening in real time, as well as patience.
Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Tropical storms and hurricanes can be extremely dangerous. Do not think you can beat Mother Nature. Refer to an accredited weather research agency or meteorologist if you need to make serious decisions regarding an approaching storm.
