2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[St0rmTh0r]

The models showing this type of hyperactivity is very worrying especially looking at real time. The real hurricane season is here and it doesn't look like its going to slow down anytime soon!

[NDG]

The 12Z GFS shows a very progressive 500mb pattern with each trough getting progressively stronger as well. Difficult to get the current Cape Verde storms anywhere close to the CONUS with this pattern. Something would have to be very far south and travel through the Caribbean recurving across the Western Caribbean:

https://i.postimg.cc/fTWP5gRJ/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-fh72-300.gif

After yet again failing with the trough pattern for next you still believe the GFS past its 120 hr forecast range?

[aspen]

Today's 12z Euro run is similar to today's 12z GFS in that it shows hyperactivity over the next 1-2 weeks, as well as Paulette and Rene sticking around for over a week. However, it shows a new TC developing from another wave that emerges a day or two after future Sally. This is a new disturbance that didn't appear on any models prior to today or last night. The run ends with Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, and Vicky all active simultaneously with a Fuijwhara interaction between Rene and Teddy -- an exceptionally rare scenario if this were to play out.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z GFS shows a very progressive 500mb pattern with each trough getting progressively stronger as well. Difficult to get the current Cape Verde storms anywhere close to the CONUS with this pattern. Something would have to be very far south and travel through the Caribbean recurving across the Western Caribbean:

https://i.postimg.cc/fTWP5gRJ/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-fh72-300.gif

After yet again failing with the trough pattern for next you still believe the GFS past its 120 hr forecast range?

https://i.imgur.com/jj3Tbmj.gif

Yes I do believe we are entering more of a fall pattern. The hour glass is emptying each day to allow any of these Cape Verde storms across unless one can stay way south. Here is the GFS parallel animation of 500MB heights for comparison to the old GFS:

[SouthFLTropics]

Today’s 12z Euro is crazy. We’re going to need a cop out in the Central Atlantic to direct traffic.


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[CrazyC83]

Today’s 12z Euro is crazy. We’re going to need a cop out in the Central Atlantic to direct traffic.


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In that pattern, I suspect Sally would be the one that breaks all the way. It would have open water farther west. Paulette could make a break if it stays weak in the short term and doesn't pick up the flow from Rene or the upper-level trough. The others look to go into a square dance.

[SouthFLTropics]

Today’s 12z Euro is crazy. We’re going to need a cop out in the Central Atlantic to direct traffic.


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In that pattern, I suspect Sally would be the one that breaks all the way. It would have open water farther west.

Whoa...Sally, whew that girl.


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[Hammy]

Today's 12z Euro run is similar to today's 12z GFS in that it shows hyperactivity over the next 1-2 weeks, as well as Paulette and Rene sticking around for over a week. However, it shows a new TC developing from another wave that emerges a day or two after future Sally. This is a new disturbance that didn't appear on any models prior to today or last night. The run ends with Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, and Vicky all active simultaneously with a Fuijwhara interaction between Rene and Teddy -- an exceptionally rare scenario if this were to play out.
https://i.imgur.com/zIcYuCb.png
https://i.imgur.com/gSgBB12.png
https://i.imgur.com/CJArYq1.png
https://i.imgur.com/ng6G7tC.png
https://i.imgur.com/hJxeDJt.png

Had to comment on this after doing a comparison to 2005--if anything like this run plays out, Sally would be headed into Rita timing and possible environment given this where Isasas and Laura really started taking off.

[CrazyC83]

Today's 12z Euro run is similar to today's 12z GFS in that it shows hyperactivity over the next 1-2 weeks, as well as Paulette and Rene sticking around for over a week. However, it shows a new TC developing from another wave that emerges a day or two after future Sally. This is a new disturbance that didn't appear on any models prior to today or last night. The run ends with Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, and Vicky all active simultaneously with a Fuijwhara interaction between Rene and Teddy -- an exceptionally rare scenario if this were to play out.
https://i.imgur.com/zIcYuCb.png
https://i.imgur.com/gSgBB12.png
https://i.imgur.com/CJArYq1.png
https://i.imgur.com/ng6G7tC.png
https://i.imgur.com/hJxeDJt.png

Had to comment on this after doing a comparison to 2005--if anything like this run plays out, Sally would be headed into Rita timing and possible environment given this where Isasas and Laura really started taking off.

Either that, or would have a straightaway into the east coast with warm water near the Bahamas.

[TheStormExpert]

The 12Z GFS shows a very progressive 500mb pattern with each trough getting progressively stronger as well. Difficult to get the current Cape Verde storms anywhere close to the CONUS with this pattern. Something would have to be very far south and travel through the Caribbean recurving across the Western Caribbean:

https://i.postimg.cc/fTWP5gRJ/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-fh72-300.gif

After yet again failing with the trough pattern for next you still believe the GFS past its 120 hr forecast range?

https://i.imgur.com/jj3Tbmj.gif

This is not like the last five years where a strong Bermuda High was there to shove storms west regardless of how quickly the spin up. Currently there are no indications of a Bermuda High whatsoever. So unless something fails to quickly develop before 50-60°W longitude everything I more likely to recurve.

[cajungal]

I think the position of mustang Sally makes me a little nervous

[AutoPenalti]

My brain hurts just trying to track one of these TC’s...

[SFLcane]

The 12Z GFS shows a very progressive 500mb pattern with each trough getting progressively stronger as well. Difficult to get the current Cape Verde storms anywhere close to the CONUS with this pattern. Something would have to be very far south and travel through the Caribbean recurving across the Western Caribbean:

https://i.postimg.cc/fTWP5gRJ/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-fh72-300.gif

After yet again failing with the trough pattern for next you still believe the GFS past its 120 hr forecast range?

https://i.imgur.com/jj3Tbmj.gif

This is not like the last five years where a strong Bermuda High was there to shove storms west regardless of how quickly the spin up. Currently there are no indications of a Bermuda High whatsoever. So unless something fails to quickly develop before 50-60°W longitude everything I more likely to recurve.

Careful.. EPS does have more ridging Day10-12 now.

[TheStormExpert]

After yet again failing with the trough pattern for next you still believe the GFS past its 120 hr forecast range?

https://i.imgur.com/jj3Tbmj.gif

This is not like the last five years where a strong Bermuda High was there to shove storms west regardless of how quickly the spin up. Currently there are no indications of a Bermuda High whatsoever. So unless something fails to quickly develop before 50-60°W longitude everything I more likely to recurve.

Careful.. EPS does have more ridging Day10-12 now.

Still the pattern is progressive.

[NDG]

The 12Z GFS shows a very progressive 500mb pattern with each trough getting progressively stronger as well. Difficult to get the current Cape Verde storms anywhere close to the CONUS with this pattern. Something would have to be very far south and travel through the Caribbean recurving across the Western Caribbean:

https://i.postimg.cc/fTWP5gRJ/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-fh72-300.gif

After yet again failing with the trough pattern for next you still believe the GFS past its 120 hr forecast range?

https://i.imgur.com/jj3Tbmj.gif

Yes I do believe we are entering more of a fall pattern. The hour glass is emptying each day to allow any of these Cape Verde storms across unless one can stay way south. Here is the GFS parallel animation of 500MB heights for comparison to the old GFS:

https://i.postimg.cc/VLYxvpz4/gfsp-z500a-atl-fh72-300.gif

Is way too early to give the all clear from the CV storms threatening the US with a parade of storms lining up, one or two may find a break in the ridge but the ones following may not.
Last month you posted about the Bermuda ridge not being present this summer then a week later LA got hit by a Cat 4 hurricane because of the Bermuda ridge. I hope you are not jinxing us again

[DestinHurricane]

The 12Z GFS shows a very progressive 500mb pattern with each trough getting progressively stronger as well. Difficult to get the current Cape Verde storms anywhere close to the CONUS with this pattern. Something would have to be very far south and travel through the Caribbean recurving across the Western Caribbean:

https://i.postimg.cc/fTWP5gRJ/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-fh72-300.gif

After yet again failing with the trough pattern for next you still believe the GFS past its 120 hr forecast range?

https://i.imgur.com/jj3Tbmj.gif

This is not like the last five years where a strong Bermuda High was there to shove storms west regardless of how quickly the spin up. Currently there are no indications of a Bermuda High whatsoever. So unless something fails to quickly develop before 50-60°W longitude everything I more likely to recurve.

We are entering a strong +NAO and some models are hinting at ridge building back west. What exactly do you mean there is no bermuda high?

[NDG]

The 12Z GFS shows a very progressive 500mb pattern with each trough getting progressively stronger as well. Difficult to get the current Cape Verde storms anywhere close to the CONUS with this pattern. Something would have to be very far south and travel through the Caribbean recurving across the Western Caribbean:

https://i.postimg.cc/fTWP5gRJ/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-fh72-300.gif

After yet again failing with the trough pattern for next you still believe the GFS past its 120 hr forecast range?

https://i.imgur.com/jj3Tbmj.gif

This is not like the last five years where a strong Bermuda High was there to shove storms west regardless of how quickly the spin up. Currently there are no indications of a Bermuda High whatsoever. So unless something fails to quickly develop before 50-60°W longitude everything I more likely to recurve.

The trend by the EPS is for a strong Bermuda ridge from its previous long range forecast as it gets into its medium range. And I keep saying that 2017 did not see a strong Bermuda ridge as you might have thought during the heart of the Hurricane season, otherwise Irma, Jose, Maria.., would had all tracked further west.
The same thing with Dorian last year.

[AxaltaRacing24]

My brain hurts just trying to track one of these TC’s...

2020 is an absolute headache.

[Blown Away]

If there are 2-3 systems below 30N and E of 70W and a system moves off Africa @11N it’s going to very likely make at least 70W before any recurve.

[Steve]

The 12Z GFS shows a very progressive 500mb pattern with each trough getting progressively stronger as well. Difficult to get the current Cape Verde storms anywhere close to the CONUS with this pattern. Something would have to be very far south and travel through the Caribbean recurving across the Western Caribbean:

https://i.postimg.cc/fTWP5gRJ/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-fh72-300.gif

The GFS has taken a toll on your otherwise stellar reputation (at least it is with me) this season. We aren’t moving steadily into Fall. We haven’t in many, many years. Expect more landfalls. No chance we don’t get 2 and if anyone is offering odds, I’ll bet we still have 3.