TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[rainstorm]

gfdl is much further right

[Ivanhater]

gfdl is much further right

was there a new run? because last time i checked it went way left

[CronkPSU]

gfdl is much further right

huh? last run i see is the 00z run...do they not run every 6 hours like most of the others?

[gkrangers]

the current run of the GFDL is the 18z, this went way left. The 00z GFDL has not come out yet.

[jkt21787]

gfdl is much further right

huh? last run i see is the 00z run...do they not run every 6 hours like most of the others?

yes, have no idea (not surprisingly) what rainstorm is talking about.

[Marilyn]

Its NOT forecast to be a fish. Is New England not a part of the USA even, much less land, just as some dont count the islands?

Mr Derek I simply said lets hope she fishes ,I donot wish any storm on anyone. including New England..or any part of our country, Or anywhere as far as that goes. Are you having a bad night?

[CronkPSU]

Its NOT forecast to be a fish. Is New England not a part of the USA even, much less land, just as some dont count the islands?

Mr Derek I simply said lets hope she fishes ,I donot wish any storm on anyone. including New England..or any part of our country, Or anywhere as far as that goes. Are you having a bad night?

bet he is just tired of people assuming that since the NHC and his forecast don't have it hitting the outer banks, that it will be a fish

[Ivanhater]

anyone noticing the spin southwest of the convection moving very close to due west?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[gkrangers]

Noticed it on the shortwave IR...hmmmm.....I don't even know if I'd call it a spin. Could be nothing.

QS totally missed the storm on the latest pass.

[Ivanhater]

Noticed it on the shortwave IR...hmmmm.....

QS totally missed the storm on the latest pass.

well that hasnt been much help lately.....im wondering if that could be the center because im not seeing as much turning in the convection to the north anymore

[gkrangers]

Noticed it on the shortwave IR...hmmmm.....

QS totally missed the storm on the latest pass.

well that hasnt been much help lately.....im wondering if that could be the center because im not seeing as much turning in the convection to the north anymore

Its a good observation, I'm just having a hard time telling if thats actually something...or just clouds that look like a circulation, can be deceiving sometimes.

[Ivanhater]

Noticed it on the shortwave IR...hmmmm.....

QS totally missed the storm on the latest pass.

well that hasnt been much help lately.....im wondering if that could be the center because im not seeing as much turning in the convection to the north anymore

Its a good observation, I'm just having a hard time telling if thats actually something...or just clouds that look like a circulation, can be deceiving sometimes.

ya exactly, im waiting on more frames to see if the clouds just blow off to the west or continue to turn

[sponger]

That would make for a wild morning! I think my eyes are to tired to tell.

[CronkPSU]

well the convection at least is moving more west than it was earlier tonight, heck if i can tell where any closed circulation is from any of those loops...we got any more of those microvae images that had the nice view of what could have been the start to an eye earlier tonight?

[gkrangers]

well the convection at least is moving more west than it was earlier tonight, heck if i can tell where any closed circulation is from any of those loops...we got any more of those microvae images that had the nice view of what could have been the start to an eye earlier tonight?

The latest one was much less well defined.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't have a clue on whats stoping storm from becoming a hurricane? Theres little shear,Dry air I don't know?

It has become very normal for Irene to die out then come back.

[gkrangers]

I don't have a clue on whats stoping storm from becoming a hurricane? Theres little shear,Dry air I don't know?

It has become very normal for Irene to die out then come back.

There is shear, and the NHC has maintained that there is considerable dry air in the mid levels.

[Hurricaneman]

the shear in a day or two could lessen

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think the center is to the north near the curve banding near 27.5/65. That is the area of the most turning, and the outflow is moving around it. Also a new area of convection seems to be forming over it.

[clfenwi]

GFDL vascillates again...

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM IRENE 09L

INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 12

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 26.0 64.4 300./13.0
6 26.8 65.4 309./11.7
12 27.4 66.3 303./ 9.7
18 27.9 66.8 312./ 7.4
24 28.2 67.6 290./ 7.3
30 28.6 68.3 303./ 7.6
36 29.0 68.8 307./ 6.0
42 29.4 69.5 298./ 6.6
48 29.7 70.0 301./ 5.5
54 30.2 70.3 332./ 6.4
60 30.8 70.6 332./ 6.6
66 31.5 71.0 330./ 7.0
72 32.0 71.1 349./ 5.7
78 32.6 71.3 342./ 5.8
84 33.1 71.3 357./ 5.2
90 33.6 71.2 10./ 4.7
96 34.1 71.2 7./ 4.8
102 34.5 71.0 24./ 4.3
108 34.9 70.6 43./ 5.7
114 35.4 70.1 43./ 5.9
120 35.9 69.7 43./ 6.4
126 36.5 69.2 40./ 7.3