2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Steve]

The 12Z GFS shows a very progressive 500mb pattern with each trough getting progressively stronger as well. Difficult to get the current Cape Verde storms anywhere close to the CONUS with this pattern. Something would have to be very far south and travel through the Caribbean recurving across the Western Caribbean:

https://i.postimg.cc/fTWP5gRJ/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-fh72-300.gif

After yet again failing with the trough pattern for next you still believe the GFS past its 120 hr forecast range?

https://i.imgur.com/jj3Tbmj.gif

This is not like the last five years where a strong Bermuda High was there to shove storms west regardless of how quickly the spin up. Currently there are no indications of a Bermuda High whatsoever. So unless something fails to quickly develop before 50-60°W longitude everything I more likely to recurve.

All the highs are coming from the US East Coast. Ridges to the north will mean timing is a big factor for anything north of 28-30N

[Steve]

The 12Z GFS shows a very progressive 500mb pattern with each trough getting progressively stronger as well. Difficult to get the current Cape Verde storms anywhere close to the CONUS with this pattern. Something would have to be very far south and travel through the Caribbean recurving across the Western Caribbean:

https://i.postimg.cc/fTWP5gRJ/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-fh72-300.gif

After yet again failing with the trough pattern for next you still believe the GFS past its 120 hr forecast range?

https://i.imgur.com/jj3Tbmj.gif

Yes I do believe we are entering more of a fall pattern. The hour glass is emptying each day to allow any of these Cape Verde storms across unless one can stay way south. Here is the GFS parallel animation of 500MB heights for comparison to the old GFS:

https://i.postimg.cc/VLYxvpz4/gfsp-z500a-atl-fh72-300.gif

Unfortunately I hadn’t gotten to this yet before my last post. It’s like you took a bet to play a character this year and refuse to waiver on any serious aspect of the season. I’ll feel better by mid-November.

[Nuno]

It must be frustrating that the GFS has consistently flopped on nearly every aspect of forecasting during the 2020 season. Some of you are like sports guys who keep swearing their player is going to come through yet never does I do feel that way about some scrappy tropical storms though...

Remember, it's only September 7th, not October 7th.

[SootyTern]

Today's 12z Euro run is similar to today's 12z GFS in that it shows hyperactivity over the next 1-2 weeks, as well as Paulette and Rene sticking around for over a week. However, it shows a new TC developing from another wave that emerges a day or two after future Sally. This is a new disturbance that didn't appear on any models prior to today or last night. The run ends with Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, and Vicky all active simultaneously with a Fuijwhara interaction between Rene and Teddy -- an exceptionally rare scenario if this were to play out.
..
https://i.imgur.com/hJxeDJt.png

Sneakin' through the alley with Sally...

[Keldeo1997]

Well the Euro is uhhh not good

[Hammy]

CFS showing something similar to the Euro, and remarkably similar to what it's been showing since mid-July. Five storms at once--Paulette, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, and Rene near the Azores.



16 day mark--that's 972mb which is much stronger than this model usually shows. Seems like future-Sally barring 94L's development.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1303248719773655040



The 00Z EPS shows strong fish schooling well out in the Atlantic, far from land.

[Blown Away]

00z EURO

[SFLcane]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1303248719773655040
The 00Z EPS shows strong fish schooling well out in the Atlantic, far from land.

We get it... nothing to be concerned about. Still waiting on Laura to recurve away from FL.

[SconnieCane]

https://i.imgur.com/gylnShO.gif
00z EURO

That is some ninja-level ridge building between the cyclone that curves OTS and the one that hits PR.

[NDG]

I will be watching the EPS trends over the next few days to see if current trends of stronger Bermuda ridge continue, if so Paulette could get too close for comfort to the eastern US. EPS also agrees with strong ridging building behind it making future Sally track further south and west.

[Extratropical94]

After multiple consecutive runs with weak but closed lows in the BOC, the CMC now spins up a quasi-stationary Campeche-cane around the 16th.

[eastcoastFL]

The 12Z GFS shows a very progressive 500mb pattern with each trough getting progressively stronger as well. Difficult to get the current Cape Verde storms anywhere close to the CONUS with this pattern. Something would have to be very far south and travel through the Caribbean recurving across the Western Caribbean:

https://i.postimg.cc/fTWP5gRJ/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-fh72-300.gif

After yet again failing with the trough pattern for next you still believe the GFS past its 120 hr forecast range?

https://i.imgur.com/jj3Tbmj.gif

Yes I do believe we are entering more of a fall pattern. The hour glass is emptying each day to allow any of these Cape Verde storms across unless one can stay way south. Here is the GFS parallel animation of 500MB heights for comparison to the old GFS:

https://i.postimg.cc/VLYxvpz4/gfsp-z500a-atl-fh72-300.gif

That hour glass is not a definitive timer for the season. We’ve had Irma, Rita Jeanne and Maria just to name a few all develop in this area in early September and all came west at least to the islands with 3 of the 4 hitting the CONUS. With the continuous failures of the GFS and the unusual set ups we’ve seen this season I wouldn’t count anything out yet. Most of the globals called for recurves early on with the systems this season only for them to keep chugging west and the ridge to build in deeper with each run.

I would not be shocked to see the ridge build back in after Paulette and Rene have moved off to the north allowing future Sally to track further west. This far out anything is possible and 7 days from now the current set up could be flipped.

[northjaxpro]

Yes indeed NDG. I stated last week that if I was a betting man, i would put it on the EPS ensembles. They were best showing the teleconnection forecast of the strong + NAO, which is forecast to last into lthe next two weeks. We are beginning to see the forecasts of a strong +.NAO beginning to be reflected in the medium to long range model runs.

I have been really uneasy about the big picture and I am really concerned by next week, we are going to be potentially having big concerns down over the Greater Antilles or even to the U.S.East Coast.

I would keep an eye.on Paulette''s progress in the coming days and potential Sally and Teddy taking more southern and westward tracks with strong building potential of ridging in the 7 to 10 day range.

[Jr0d]

While I think it is safe to say the US in the clear from the Cape Verde storms in the next week, 94L maybe be a minor strike, I am starting to get concerned with what the EURO is showing.

I have all but given up on the GFS, it thinks trough season is here. We will see how it plays out but for now I think the 'king' EURO has a better handle of the long range outlook. Still a fantasy land forecast though.

[tolakram]

Have a look at the Rita thread in the 2005 archive. People have been declaring 'fall' and various other seasonal changes for years, and rarely are they accurate. Every season is different, and while this batch looks to recurve before the coast right now I'm not convinced it will look this way in a few days.

[Emmett_Brown]

The models make the Atlantic TC outbreak look like a pinball machine; vorts wandering all over the place. There is some agreement between models for general TC positions up until 120 hours, and diverge sharply after that.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1303365926612541445

[abajan]

The 12z GFS is somewhat disconcerting. It has a Cat1 cane approaching the Windward Islands around Hour 186. But it's just one run.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

There continues to be zero consistency from the Euro. Last run had a major hurricane nearing the islands by 168 hours, with Paulette as a major hurricane. Now both systems are weak by 168 hours.