2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Ubuntwo]

About as calm as the ensembles get this time of year. From days 10-15, less than 30% of members develop.

[Category5Kaiju]

What's even more interesting is the recent GEFS ensembles have a handful of quite potent systems in the WCAR in the very end of this month and early November.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z GEFS is suggesting no big threats through day 16. Just a handful of members out of 31 from time to time having a weak system mainly in the Caribbean post day 10. It frankly looks boring, which is a great thing!

[blp]

About as calm as the ensembles get this time of year. From days 10-15, less than 30% of members develop.
[]https://i.imgur.com/ulXJexX.png[/img]

Wow even quieter on the 12z. Almost nothing out there.

[LarryWx]

About as calm as the ensembles get this time of year. From days 10-15, less than 30% of members develop.
[]https://i.imgur.com/ulXJexX.png[/url]

Wow even quieter on the 12z. Almost nothing out there.

https://i.ibb.co/vXDXw9f/ecens-2021-10-17-12-Z-240-50-258-0-350-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png

And only a very few active members in the 11-15 day portion of the 12Z EPS.

[Category5Kaiju]

What do the ensembles think of WPAC and EPAC activity? Is it also pretty quiet in those basins as well?

[wxman57]

What do the ensembles think of WPAC and EPAC activity? Is it also pretty quiet in those basins as well?

Yes, it's very quiet in the West Pac. Been much quieter than normal this season out there. May see a storm develop in the East Pac late this week. GFS says into southern MX, ECMWF takes it near southern Baja in 10-11 days. We'll see.

[Category5Kaiju]

I'm not sure if I understand this correctly, but is this even like possible?

[blp]

About as calm as the ensembles get this time of year. From days 10-15, less than 30% of members develop.
[]https://i.imgur.com/ulXJexX.png[/url]

Wow even quieter on the 12z. Almost nothing out there.

https://i.ibb.co/vXDXw9f/ecens-2021-10-17-12-Z-240-50-258-0-350-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png

And only a very few active members in the 11-15 day portion of the 12Z EPS.

That takes us out to the 1st of Nov. I know last year we had crazy active November and but that was extremely unusual. I do think we should have started seeing a signal in the ensembles by now especially the GEFS. The fronts are coming earlier this year so I think the door is closing quickly.

Flashback Oct 15 2020. The precursor runs to Zeta showed up very well on GEFS and Euro Ens.

I am going to wait and see another week before I start feeling we are more in the clear.

Oct 15 2020 Euro Ensembles


Oct 15 2020 GFS Ensembles Trend

[skyline385]

Another GFS run with a Nov 1 CV system

[Ubuntwo]

[Category5Kaiju]

You know, I am actually sort of rooting for that GFS Cape Verde system to verify so that we get a harmless fish storm (maybe a bit of rain to the Cape Verde islands but hopefully nothing severe) that also gets a name and shatters numerous records.

[kevin]

06z GFS has another Pamela-like system (at least similar to what early models showed Pamela would be), forming at 100 hr and making landfall at 180 hr.

[aspen]

The GFS has had a TC north of the GAs for two runs in a row. The source looks to be vorticity cutting off from a front or interacting with a front, which now seems like more probable genesis then something from an AEW, seeing how the Atlantic has failed so many times over the last few weeks.

How we’re looking at yet another possible October EPac hurricane in a -0.8C La Niña is beyond me.

[Shell Mound]

Another GFS run with a Nov 1 CV system

https://i.imgur.com/wf6BOMZ.png

Interestingly, 1934 featured a major hurricane in the same general vicinity of the Sargasso Sea during late November: a TC that attained 100-kt MSW at 26.6°N 66.5°W on 23 November. As far as the MDR is concerned: 1878, per reanalysis (see revised HURDAT, Excel spreadsheet, under “Supplementary Materials”), featured a TS at 17°N 50°W on 25 November. 1896 also featured a hurricane in the northwestern portion of the MDR on the very last day of October. Given available deficiencies in the “official” record, there have probably been more than a few hurricanes in the MDR during part of November.

[AlphaToOmega]

Another GFS run with a Nov 1 CV system

https://i.imgur.com/wf6BOMZ.png

Interestingly, 1934 featured a major hurricane in the same general vicinity of the Sargasso Sea during late November: a TC that attained 100-kt MSW at 26.6°N 66.5°W on 23 November. As far as the MDR is concerned: 1878, per reanalysis (see revised HURDAT, Excel spreadsheet, under “Supplementary Materials”), featured a TS at 17°N 50°W on 25 November. 1896 also featured a hurricane in the northwestern portion of the MDR on the very last day of October. Given available deficiencies in the “official” record, there have probably been more than a few hurricanes in the MDR during part of November.

Those were in the Western MDR, though. A Cape Verde storm (20-35 W) in November has never been seen before.

[Category5Kaiju]

I looked at the most recent GEFS, and quite interesting, while by no means is it a striking number and strength, there are some members that actually develop the Cape Verde system into a bona fide TS by the month's end. Also I think the WCAR may be a place to watch by the extreme end of this month going into November, the GEFS is back to being pretty aggressive with a Michelle or Paloma-like system then. Those imho are the two best opportunities to see development in the next few weeks.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z EPS is pretty much a snooze-fest, which is a good thing of course.

[AlphaToOmega]

I looked at the most recent GEFS, and quite interesting, while by no means is it a striking number and strength, there are some members that actually develop the Cape Verde system into a bona fide TS by the month's end. Also I think the WCAR may be a place to watch by the extreme end of this month going into November, the GEFS is back to being pretty aggressive with a Michelle or Paloma-like system then. Those imho are the two best opportunities to see development in the next few weeks.

I would personally disregard the system that develops near Cape Verde. While the MDR development in October and November is possible, Cape Verde development (east of 35 W) has been recorded in neither late October nor November.

[Category5Kaiju]

The 12Z EPS is pretty much a snooze-fest, which is a good thing of course.

How far out in time does the EPS go?