Potential in the GOM?

[A1A]

The navy model is showing some tropical activity coming ashore on the middle Texas Coast this week-end:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/ww3_cgi/cgi- ... sig_wav_ht

[lrak]

http://www.lajollasurf.org/images/caanim.gif

A1A I saw the same thing from this wave model, I wonder if its just some big winds coming across from the Caribbean. The arrows never point to the south during the animation like they do when a storm enters the Gulf.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'd guess a Navy wave model would probably be based off the NoGaps, or maybe the GFS, and neither implies anything looking like a TC then.


I'd guess wind surge.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Relevant snip of NWS KBRO AFD

.MARINE...AT 200 AM BUOY 020 REPORTED ESE WINDS AT AROUND 10 KNOTS
WITH SEAS JUST BELOW 2 FEET. MARINE CONDITIONS TO REMAIN FAVORABLE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH EXCEPTION OF DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NATURALLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE STRONGER
AND ROUGH IN AND NEAR ANY OF THE CONVECTION. FORECAST MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO SUGGEST A DEVELOPING MODERATE SWELL TRAIN OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS WINDS INCREASE IN THAT
REGION DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OF THIS SWELL TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...IF IN DEED IT DOES
DEVELOP. FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE SEAS BUT LATER
SHIFTS MAY ADJUST LOWER OR EVEN HIGHER DEPENDING ON WHAT ACTUALLY
DEVELOPS.

[lrak]

Couldn't ask for anything better a little rain and a small wave machine for the 4th of July weekend

[KWT]

There is convection in the gulf but how is the shear tendency?
Also stalled fronts tend to take a long time to become anything, chances are small but there if shear is low enough?

[srainhoutx]

N/NW GOM looks to be an Upper level Trough and the northern axis of Tropical Wave. Snipet from HPC thiss morning...

THE 00Z GUIDANCE WAS QUITE SIMILAR DURING THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
CONCERNING THE ORGANIZATION OF A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW MOVING
FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL THROUGH THE NORTHWEST GULF COASTS INTO
TEXAS DURING THIS PERIOD. IN TANDEM WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA WESTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html

[Stratosphere747]

For continuity -

[LaBreeze]

Interesting scenario. We'll have to wait and see. I hope that the July 4th weekend isn't a washout. Keep us informed everyone.

[Aric Dunn]

maybe something to watch .. in the western gulf right now..

[KatDaddy]

There does seem to be a a hint of a mid level rotation this afternoon. If its still there tomorrow it might be something to watch.

[PTrackerLA]

Suspect looking area south of Louisiana right now. Let's see if it persists into tomorrow.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfvs.html

[KWT]

There is some moderate convection along the old bondary which may need to be watched if it starts to show any hint of circulation getting lower down. I suppose that this may bear watching!

[Extremeweatherguy]

That area south of LA is pretty interesting. I can't wait to see how it looks by tomorrow morning.

[dixiebreeze]

The GOM has been stirring for some time now. Won't take too much.

[Ed Mahmoud]

CIMSS suggests shear has lightened a tad, but is still between 20 and 30 knots, not favorable for development. 18Z GFS suggests shear remains high outside the Bay of Campeche the next week.

[LaBreeze]

Local met mentioned this evening that the moisture south of LA will be moving in to LA over the next few days and rainfall chances would be going up for the 4th. Strange looking dark clouds came in late this afternoon and then vanished without any moisture as the sun set. Humidity is in full swing (soupy).

[Ptarmigan]

That area south of LA is pretty interesting. I can't wait to see how it looks by tomorrow morning.

If it persists, it does deserve to be watched. This time of year, many tropical systems form in the Gulf of Mexico.

[NDG]

I don't see anything here besides earlier convection from left over trough, surface pressures are high, southerly winds all across the northern gulf with no indication of any cyclonic trough left behind.
Area to watch might be in the BOC later this week or next week.

[KatDaddy]

Joe B has some concerns for the W and NW GOM early next week as the MJO pulse continues.