ACE 2008 numbers=ATL=144.505 / EPAC=81.6125

[RattleMan]

07/0300. Lowell has formed in the EPAC. Atlantic is currently 44.22 ahead:

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   Atlantic      % of
   Seasonal ACE      Total
         
BT   Arthur   0.7725   0.81%
   Bertha   28.3675   29.62%
   Cristobal   3.06   3.20%
   Dolly   5.3125   5.55%
   Edouard   1.5275   1.60%
   Fay   6.715   7.01%
   Gustav   18.455   19.27%
   Hanna   10.32   10.78%
   Ike   18.445   19.26%
   Josephine   2.79   2.91%
   TOTAL   95.765   
         
         
   East Pacific      
   Seasonal ACE      
BT   Alma   0.83   1.61%
   Boris   7.025   13.63%
   Cristina   1.21   2.35%
   Douglas   0.49   0.95%
   Elida   11.7375   22.77%
   Fausto   10.125   19.64%
   Genevieve   5.76   11.17%
   Hernan   11.65   22.60%
   Iselle   1.295   2.51%
   Julio   1.1775   2.28%
   Karina   0.1225   0.24%
   Lowell   0.1225   0.24%
   TOTAL   51.545   


[cycloneye]

Something interesting has occured in the 0300z update as Ike has the exact ACE numbers as Gustav (18.455).Of course Ike will rise to second place at 0900z and if the system hangs on for many days,it will surpass Berthas 28.

[RattleMan]

Something interesting has occured in the 0300z update as Ike has the exact ACE numbers as Gustav (18.455).

Not quite, Gustav has one hundredth higher than Ike:

Gustav 18.455 19.27%
Ike 18.445 19.26%

[KWT]

If it tracks into the western gulf then Ike should take Bertha as the top placed system so far this season.

Anyway next season to beat is 2001 I believe which should be done pretty soon as well.

[senorpepr]

Here's an update based at 7 Sept / 0900 UTC.

Currently, we're 10/5/3 for named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes, respectively. 62.5/17.25/6 are the tallies for days. NTC based on normal activity through today is about 202%.

ACE is currently 97.0875, which is about 111% of a full, normal season. At this time, 2008 ranks 48th overall for most ACE. Projecting climatologically, but weighted upon activity thus far, we should end up around 185, or 211% of normal, ranking us at 10th all-time.

[cycloneye]

The update of ACE numbers as of the 11 AM advisory of ike.

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Season total
Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Arthur) Best track 0.7725
02L (Bertha) Operational 28.3675
03L (Cristobal) Operational 3.0600
04L (Dolly) Operational 5.3125
05L (Edouard) Operational 1.5275
06L (Fay) Operational 6.7150
07L (Gustav) Operational 18.4550
08L (Hanna) Operational 10.3200
09L (Ike) Operational 21.0900
10L (Josephine) Operational 2.7900
Total  98.41


[KWT]

111% of the season already and 48th of all time...and still not 10th of September yet, impressive!

Anyway Ike is now very likely to get above 30 units so its likely to beat Bertha.

[RattleMan]

07/2100z update, Atlantic is 47.4825 ahead of EPAC:

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   Atlantic      % of
   Seasonal ACE      Total
         
BT   Arthur   0.7725   0.78%
   Bertha   28.3675   28.51%
   Cristobal   3.06   3.07%
   Dolly   5.3125   5.34%
   Edouard   1.5275   1.53%
   Fay   6.715   6.75%
   Gustav   18.455   18.55%
   Hanna   10.32   10.37%
   Ike   22.1925   22.30%
   Josephine   2.79   2.80%
   TOTAL   99.5125   
         
         
   East Pacific      
   Seasonal ACE      
BT   Alma   0.83   1.60%
   Boris   7.025   13.50%
   Cristina   1.21   2.33%
   Douglas   0.49   0.94%
   Elida   11.7375   22.56%
   Fausto   10.125   19.46%
   Genevieve   5.76   11.07%
   Hernan   11.65   22.39%
   Iselle   1.295   2.49%
   Julio   1.1775   2.26%
   Karina   0.1225   0.24%
   Lowell   0.6075   1.17%
   TOTAL   52.03   


[RattleMan]

08/0300z update; the ACE has passed 100. Atlantic is 48.335 ahead of the EPAC.

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   Atlantic      % of
   Seasonal ACE      Total
         
BT   Arthur   0.7725   0.77%
   Bertha   28.3675   28.19%
   Cristobal   3.06   3.04%
   Dolly   5.3125   5.28%
   Edouard   1.5275   1.52%
   Fay   6.715   6.67%
   Gustav   18.455   18.34%
   Hanna   10.32   10.26%
   Ike   23.295   23.15%
   Josephine   2.79   2.77%
   TOTAL   100.615   
         
         
   East Pacific      
   Seasonal ACE      
BT   Alma   0.83   1.59%
   Boris   7.025   13.44%
   Cristina   1.21   2.31%
   Douglas   0.49   0.94%
   Elida   11.7375   22.45%
   Fausto   10.125   19.37%
   Genevieve   5.76   11.02%
   Hernan   11.65   22.28%
   Iselle   1.295   2.48%
   Julio   1.1775   2.25%
   Karina   0.1225   0.23%
   Lowell   0.8575   1.64%
   TOTAL   52.28   


[senorpepr]

08/0900 UTC adds another 0.81 to Ike, bringing him to 24.105 and the season to 101.425.

[senorpepr]

Here's an update based at 8 Sept / 0900 UTC.

Currently, we're 10/5/3 for named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes, respectively. 63.5/18.25/6.75 are the tallies for days. NTC based on normal activity through today is about 202%.

ACE is currently 101.425, which is about 116% of a full, normal season. (HDP is at 58.8525) At this time, 2008 ranks 47th overall for most ACE. Projecting climatologically, but weighted upon activity thus far, we should end up around 187, or 213% of normal, ranking us at 10th all-time.

[cycloneye]

ACE updated numbers for the 2008 Atlantic season as of 15:00z.

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Season total
Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Arthur) Best track 0.7725
02L (Bertha) Operational 28.3675
03L (Cristobal) Operational 3.0600
04L (Dolly) Operational 5.3125
05L (Edouard) Operational 1.5275
06L (Fay) Operational 6.7150
07L (Gustav) Operational 18.4550
08L (Hanna) Operational 10.3200
09L (Ike) Operational 24.8275
10L (Josephine) Operational 2.7900
Total  102.1475


[RattleMan]

Here's the EPAC and percentages for 08/1500z. Atlantic is 49.415 ahead:

Senorpepr, based on your statistics, the ACE for a normal season is about 87.496. Is this the number you're using?

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   Atlantic      % of
   Seasonal ACE      Total
         
BT   Arthur   0.7725   0.76%
   Bertha   28.3675   27.77%
   Cristobal   3.06   3.00%
   Dolly   5.3125   5.20%
   Edouard   1.5275   1.50%
   Fay   6.715   6.57%
   Gustav   18.455   18.07%
   Hanna   10.32   10.10%
   Ike   24.8275   24.31%
   Josephine   2.79   2.73%
   TOTAL   102.1475   
         
         
   East Pacific      
   Seasonal ACE      
BT   Alma   0.83   1.57%
   Boris   7.025   13.32%
   Cristina   1.21   2.29%
   Douglas   0.49   0.93%
   Elida   11.7375   22.26%
   Fausto   10.125   19.20%
   Genevieve   5.76   10.92%
   Hernan   11.65   22.09%
   Iselle   1.295   2.46%
   Julio   1.1775   2.23%
   Karina   0.1225   0.23%
   Lowell   1.31   2.48%
   TOTAL   52.7325   


[senorpepr]

Senorpepr, based on your statistics, the ACE for a normal season is about 87.496. Is this the number you're using?

I've been using 87.5. I can't remember the source I had, but I'm changing it. Dr. Gray's (and pals) forecast uses 96 as the 1950-2000 average.



Here's an update based at 8 Sept / 1500 UTC.

Currently, we're 10/5/3 for named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes, respectively. 63.75/18.5/6.75 are the tallies for days. NTC based on normal activity through today is about 203%.

ACE is currently 102.1475, which is about 106% of a full, normal season. (HDP is at 59.5750) At this time, 2008 ranks 46th overall for most ACE. Projecting climatologically, but weighted upon activity thus far, we should end up around 188, or 196% of normal, ranking us at 10th all-time.

[RattleMan]

08/2100z update, Atlantic is 49.7025 ahead of the EPAC:

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   Atlantic      % of
   Seasonal ACE      Total
         
BT   Arthur   0.7725   0.75%
   Bertha   28.3675   27.64%
   Cristobal   3.06   2.98%
   Dolly   5.3125   5.18%
   Edouard   1.5275   1.49%
   Fay   6.715   6.54%
   Gustav   18.455   17.98%
   Hanna   10.32   10.05%
   Ike   25.3175   24.67%
   Josephine   2.79   2.72%
   TOTAL   102.6375   
         
         
   East Pacific      
   Seasonal ACE      
BT   Alma   0.83   1.57%
   Boris   7.025   13.27%
   Cristina   1.21   2.29%
   Douglas   0.49   0.93%
   Elida   11.7375   22.17%
   Fausto   10.125   19.13%
   Genevieve   5.76   10.88%
   Hernan   11.65   22.01%
   Iselle   1.295   2.45%
   Julio   1.1775   2.22%
   Karina   0.1225   0.23%
   Lowell   1.5125   2.86%
   TOTAL   52.935   


[RattleMan]

09/0300z update, Atlantic is 49.9425 ahead of EPAC.

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   Atlantic      % of
   Seasonal ACE      Total
         
BT   Arthur   0.7725   0.75%
   Bertha   28.3675   27.51%
   Cristobal   3.06   2.97%
   Dolly   5.3125   5.15%
   Edouard   1.5275   1.48%
   Fay   6.715   6.51%
   Gustav   18.455   17.90%
   Hanna   10.32   10.01%
   Ike   25.8075   25.02%
   Josephine   2.79   2.71%
   TOTAL   103.1275   
         
         
   East Pacific      
   Seasonal ACE      
BT   Alma   0.83   1.56%
   Boris   7.025   13.21%
   Cristina   1.21   2.28%
   Douglas   0.49   0.92%
   Elida   11.7375   22.07%
   Fausto   10.125   19.04%
   Genevieve   5.76   10.83%
   Hernan   11.65   21.90%
   Iselle   1.295   2.43%
   Julio   1.1775   2.21%
   Karina   0.1225   0.23%
   Lowell   1.7625   3.31%
   TOTAL   53.185   


[senorpepr]

Here's an update based at 9 Sept / 0300 UTC.

Currently, we're 10/5/3 for named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes, respectively. 64.25/19/6.75 are the tallies for days. NTC based on normal activity through today is about 200%.

ACE is currently 103.1275, which is about 107% of a full, normal season. (HDP is at 60.5550) At this time, 2008 ranks 45th overall for most ACE. Projecting climatologically, but weighted upon activity thus far, we should end up around 187, or 195% of normal, ranking us at 10th all-time.

[RattleMan]

Going on ACE data from http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E11.html , I've compiled a list of "ACE to go until passing...(year)" statistics:

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(data 1950-2008)         (data 1851-1949)   
Total Atl ACE         Total Atl ACE   
 To Go Until Passing…          To Go Until Passing…   
2005   145      1893   128
1950   140      1926   119
1995   124      1933   110
2004   121      1887   79
1961   102      1878   78
1955   96      1916   74
1998   79      1886   63
1999   74      1906   60
2003   72      1899   47
1964   67      1896   33
1996   63      1932   33
1969   55      1894   32
1980   44      1880   28
1966   42      1915   15
1951   34      1891   13
1989   32      1892   13
1967   19      1898   10
1958   18      1947   9
1963   15      1936   5
2000   13      1948   3
1954   10      1889   0.8725
2001   3         
1953   0.8725         
            
            
1950-2008 rank:   24         
1851-2008 rank:   45         


Current Excel spreadsheet: http://drop.io/ACECalcs (the document is named "ACE_Ike_Release_20080909_0300z.xls")

[cycloneye]

Updated ACE numbers as of the 11 AM Advisory of Ike.

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Season total
Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Arthur) Best track 0.7725
02L (Bertha) Operational 28.3675
03L (Cristobal) Operational 3.0600
04L (Dolly) Operational 5.3125
05L (Edouard) Operational 1.5275
06L (Fay) Operational 6.7150
07L (Gustav) Operational 18.4550
08L (Hanna) Operational 10.3200
09L (Ike) Operational 26.7875
10L (Josephine) Operational 2.7900
Total  104.1075


[El Nino]

Tonight Ike will beat Bertha.