Caribbean development? (Is invest 92L)

[Vortex]

All models on board now with varying degrees of development..

[Bailey1777]

two things first if it shoots the gap between the yucatan and cuba watch out and second around what coordinates...area...should we watch for this to spin up?

[Vortex]

Nogaps 18Z at H+96. Just south of DR



https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Ivanhater]

No reason for this not to develop IMO, the models are steadily latching onto something developing.

Track is an interesting one, the models seem to be suggesting a strong upper high forming over the SE states again which would mean a W/WNW track towards CA/Yucatan and after that it all depends on the state of the high after that...frankly its a little early to say.

ECM probably overdoing the strength of the high IMO...but most likely track IMO is WNW into Yucatan then into the BoC/Southern Gulf and landfall in Mexico...maybe Texas...thats a classic La Nina track.

There is no strong upper high on the GFS

[Ivanhater]

[Wx_Warrior]

From nearly nothing on 12z to a nice sized storm on 18z...only the GFS.

[Vortex]

thats some weakness along the east coast there ivan.

[Ivanhater]

Slides under some weak Upper ridging. No strong perma-ridge. This is gonna be one of those "fun" ones to track.

I think this is the real deal..

[blazess556]

Slides under some weak Upper ridging. No strong perma-ridge. This is gonna be one of those "fun" ones to track.

I think this is the real deal..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_276m.gif[/img]

me too. this kinda snuck up on us. gonna be a fun next two weeks.

[Vortex]

I could see anywhere from Mexico to Fl at this point....

[Vortex]

Nogaps at H+120 Eastern Cuba



viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109304&p=2061413#p2061413

[blazess556]

I could see anywhere from Mexico to Fl at this point....

gonna be a fun one to track. lots of possibilities.

[Wx_Warrior]

I think several systems this season has had the early "this one is gonna be a fun one" in the infant stages.

[blazess556]

I think several systems this season has had the early "this one is gonna be a fun one" in the infant stages.

yeah. well those were cv storms. this is already in the caribbean.

[Wx_Warrior]

We've had several in the GOM this season.

[Ivanhater]

We've had several in the GOM this season.

Not with this set up. First one to really traverse the NW Caribbean TCHP boiling zone while Upper air conditions look ideal.

[KWT]

Mexico and the Yucatan are probably by far at highest risk from this one given the current set-up has been for a weakness at 60W and a decent upper ridge held in the SE states...

That being said Alex may not be a bad system to end up comparing this one too...though this system may well get going a little faster then that one IMO and have more time before any possible threat to land to strengthen.

THIS is what I've been saying to keep a real close eye on though...because the pattern means its going to hit land somewhere its just a case of where really...

[South Texas Storms]

im thinking another tex/mex landfall based on how this season is going so far. and its a classic la-nina track.

[Wx_Warrior]

True that Iv.

[KWT]

Indeed STS thats the classic La Nina set-up, and given the pattern we've seen I'd put the sort of WNW track into the Yucatan then through into the BoC/S.Gulf towards Mex/Tex as by far the highest possiblity...

No doubts this is a big threat no IMO...though I'm sure its not the only system the Caribbean is going to produce in the next 30-45 days....