Pouch PGI45L - SW of CV Islands - (Is invest 94L)

[KWT]

Yep very interesting, HWRF is almost certainly way too quick in developing it, even the GFS looks too quick to me given how Karl struggled in the Eastern Caribbean...

Still odds of a system developing seem to be increasing and every day that goes past makes it easier for troughs to actually pull a system out of the Caribbean and into the Gulf...

[ColinDelia]

Here are snapshots from the 6z GFS of what Vortex mentioned.

0 hours


60 hours


114 hours

[ColinDelia]

Here you can clearly see what the GFS is developing now SW of Julia.

850 mb vorticity

[KWT]

Hmmm it is a fairly complex evolution though, you've got two Vort regions and many times the one that develops is not the one the models expect to develop...though often that doesn't lead to much in the way of troubles down the line it does tend to cause the models to be a little too fast with development.

[otowntiger]

What's that tight little vortex behind that area of distrubed weather that you circled on that 114 hour model? It looks like a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes.

[Vortex]

Given the pattern in the long range I have to beleive this could be a serious threat to the US...I don't beleive this is a Karl track...Imo, with the progressive nature of the pattern towards latter september the Gulf coast from TX to FL needs to pay close attention....I hope residents of TX haven't put the all clear up for the hurricane season...

[Stratosphere747]

What's that tight little vortex behind that area of distrubed weather that you circled on that 114 hour model? It looks like a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes.

That's the original 'PGI45L' that the PERDICT team is tracking and the Euro develops.

The GFS pinches off a piece of energy out ahead and it's what everyone is seeing in the long range over the Caribbean and GOM. The Euro does as well but at a much weaker reflection.

[chrisjslucia]

What's that tight little vortex behind that area of distrubed weather that you circled on that 114 hour model? It looks like a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes.

That's the original 'PGI45L' that the PERDICT team is tracking and the Euro develops.

The GFS pinches off a piece of energy out ahead and it's what everyone is seeing in the long range over the Caribbean and GOM. The Euro does as well but at a much weaker reflection.

Is it time to split this discussion to avoid any confusion as to what is being discussed or are these two items one and the same with a different view as to how they / it will develop?

[Stratosphere747]

What's that tight little vortex behind that area of distrubed weather that you circled on that 114 hour model? It looks like a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes.

That's the original 'PGI45L' that the PERDICT team is tracking and the Euro develops.

The GFS pinches off a piece of energy out ahead and it's what everyone is seeing in the long range over the Caribbean and GOM. The Euro does as well but at a much weaker reflection.

Is it time to split this discussion to avoid any confusion as to what is being discussed or are these two items one and the same with a different view as to how they / it will develop?

Technically, yes. Though it might be easier to just wait and see how it evolves.

Just wanted to clear up the confusion. Neither the Euro or GFS shows 'PGI45L' heading to the Gulf/Caribbean. That's a different entity everyone is getting caught up in.

[KWT]

Given the pattern in the long range I have to beleive this could be a serious threat to the US...I don't beleive this is a Karl track...Imo, with the progressive nature of the pattern towards latter september the Gulf coast from TX to FL needs to pay close attention....I hope residents of TX haven't put the all clear up for the hurricane season...

Whilst thats true La Nina patterns support a strong Upper High over the SE states and Karl is taking a classic La Nina track...but you are also right to say that the pattern is more progressive at this time and thats what makes it uncertain, I'd be more concerned in the W.Gulf then normal for the time of the year...

[cycloneye]

What's that tight little vortex behind that area of distrubed weather that you circled on that 114 hour model? It looks like a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes.

That's the original 'PGI45L' that the PERDICT team is tracking and the Euro develops.

The GFS pinches off a piece of energy out ahead and it's what everyone is seeing in the long range over the Caribbean and GOM. The Euro does as well but at a much weaker reflection.

Is it time to split this discussion to avoid any confusion as to what is being discussed or are these two items one and the same with a different view as to how they / it will develop?

I think a new thread may be in order as this development is not from PGI45L, is from another area ahead.

[otowntiger]

What's that tight little vortex behind that area of distrubed weather that you circled on that 114 hour model? It looks like a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes.

That's the original 'PGI45L' that the PERDICT team is tracking and the Euro develops.

The GFS pinches off a piece of energy out ahead and it's what everyone is seeing in the long range over the Caribbean and GOM. The Euro does as well but at a much weaker reflection.

Thanks! I appreciate the clarification.

[Aquawind]

Showing up as it approaches the islands..

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/gridded_ma ... d#contents

[srainhoutx]

I agree Luis. Thanks for the clarification Stratosphere747. I know you have been tracking these for some time.

[HURAKAN]

quite impressive vorticity

[Ladylight]

Is it time to split this discussion to avoid any confusion as to what is being discussed or are these two items one and the same with a different view as to how they / it will develop?

Yes please. I was talking with a friend in Tx who reads here a while ago and we were saying how confused we are on which system is which. I'm glad we're not the only ones getting confused!

[cycloneye]

Is it time to split this discussion to avoid any confusion as to what is being discussed or are these two items one and the same with a different view as to how they / it will develop?

Yes please. I was talking with a friend in Tx who reads here a while ago and we were saying how confused we are on which system is which. I'm glad we're not the only ones getting confused!

I think the confusion is over after I made a new thread about development next week east of Windward islands? that is different from this one that is for area emerging Africa right now.

[cycloneye]

Image that updates every 15 minutes.

[HURAKAN]

Appears to be becoming better organized

[Kingarabian]

Does the Cape Verde season run all year long?