Expert forecasts for 2013 N Atlantic season

[cycloneye]

The CSU team of Dr Klotzbach/Dr Gray will release their August forecast next Friday and the three questions that loom in terms of the numbers are the following. Will they leave them the same? (18/9/4) Will they increase the numbers? Will they go down in the numbers? As we know,TSR already went down in the numbers by one citing cooler waters in MDR. See their July forecast at first post.

IMO,they will go down at least one on each category but still they will say in the abstract that an active season will occur.

[cycloneye]

Here are some comments by Phil Klotzbach And Stan Goldenberg of NOAA that may give us a clue about how they will go in terms of the numbers next Friday and on August 8.

NOAA

"The fact that they formed there at all in July, even though they didn't last long, suggests that when we hit the peak months, things could be very favorable for development," said Stanley Goldenberg, a research meteorologist for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Phil Klotzbach of CSU

Some atmospheric factors could suppress systems, mainly dry air and cooler sea surface temperatures, said Phil Klotzbach, a Colorado State University climatologist.

"There are a lot of mixed signals out there," he said.

Klotzbach and William Gray, who in June predicted 18 named storms, including nine hurricanes, will update their seasonal forecast on Friday.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/browar ... 5889.story

[ninel conde]

Phils comments seem more sensible. time will tell. i will guess CSU will drop by 3 named storms, 2 hurricanes and 1 major and lower landfall probabilities.

[cycloneye]

Phils comments seem more sensible. time will tell. i will guess CSU will drop by 3 named storms, 2 hurricanes and 1 major and lower landfall probabilities.

My take is CSU will drop one number for each category to have 17/8/3 but let's wait until next Friday to see the forecast.

[ninel conde]

Here are some comments by Phil Klotzbach And Stan Goldenberg of NOAA that may give us a clue about how they will go in terms of the numbers next Friday and on August 8.

NOAA

"The fact that they formed there at all in July, even though they didn't last long, suggests that when we hit the peak months, things could be very favorable for development," said Stanley Goldenberg, a research meteorologist for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Phil Klotzbach of CSU

Some atmospheric factors could suppress systems, mainly dry air and cooler sea surface temperatures, said Phil Klotzbach, a Colorado State University climatologist.

"There are a lot of mixed signals out there," he said.

Klotzbach and William Gray, who in June predicted 18 named storms, including nine hurricanes, will update their seasonal forecast on Friday.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/browar ... 5889.story

i have to disagree with phil about cooler SST's

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anoma ... 9.2013.gif

they are above normal from the african coast to 65w. SST's can not be blamed for inactivity.

[NDG]

Here are some comments by Phil Klotzbach And Stan Goldenberg of NOAA that may give us a clue about how they will go in terms of the numbers next Friday and on August 8.

NOAA

"The fact that they formed there at all in July, even though they didn't last long, suggests that when we hit the peak months, things could be very favorable for development," said Stanley Goldenberg, a research meteorologist for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Phil Klotzbach of CSU

Some atmospheric factors could suppress systems, mainly dry air and cooler sea surface temperatures, said Phil Klotzbach, a Colorado State University climatologist.

"There are a lot of mixed signals out there," he said.

Klotzbach and William Gray, who in June predicted 18 named storms, including nine hurricanes, will update their seasonal forecast on Friday.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/browar ... 5889.story

i have to disagree with phil about cooler SST's

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anoma ... 9.2013.gif

they are above normal from the african coast to 65w. SST's can not be blamed for inactivity.

There was some cool SSTs in the NE Atlantic that many experts thought that it was going to move down to the MDR, but as we now know that did not happened. But the problem with the dry MDR is still there.

[ninel conde]

yea, bone dry bleached air devoid of a single water molecule.

[Alyono]

The latest Cuban prediction is 18 storms and 9 canes

[cycloneye]

The latest Cuban prediction is 18 storms and 9 canes

Do you have the link?

[Alyono]

The latest Cuban prediction is 18 storms and 9 canes

Do you have the link?

my work e-mail. sent to the T storms list

[cycloneye]

I have a medical appointment at 10 AM EDT on Friday around the same time CSU will release their August forecast. For that reason the posting at the first post list will be delayed until I get back to my PC. Maybe a fellow moderator adds it. But anyone of course can post it here.

[wxman57]

I have a medical appointment at 10 AM EDT on Friday around the same time CSU will release their August forecast. For that reason the posting at the first post list will be delayed until I get back to my PC. Maybe a fellow moderator adds it. But anyone of course can post it here.

I'm watching for it, Luis. Note that Phil Klotzbach is living in San Francisco now (his wife got a job with Clif Bars), so 10am EDT would be 7am PDT. Not sure he'll get it out that early.

See any dust there in PR from that SAL outbreak? Leading edge of thick dust is reaching you now.

['CaneFreak]

The August CSU Forecast has just been released:

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/for ... ug2013.pdf

18/8/3

They only lowered it by 1 hurricane and 1 major hurricane but...


We expect an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.

[ninel conde]

The August CSU Forecast has just been released:

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/for ... ug2013.pdf

18/8/3

They only lowered it by 1 hurricane and 1 major hurricane but...


We expect an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.

i can see lowered numbers due to dry air and below normal instability, but i dont get why they seem to think sst's are a problem

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anoma ... 1.2013.gif

almost the entire atlantic is above normal.

[tolakram]

i can see lowered numbers due to dry air and below normal instability, but i dont get why they seem to think sst's are a problem

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anoma ... 1.2013.gif

almost the entire atlantic is above normal.

Yellow is normal, and most of the MDR is yellow to just slightly above. IMO

All they are saying is part of the reason they had higher numbers was due to much warmer SST, which no longer exist.

[ROCK]

The August CSU Forecast has just been released:

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/for ... ug2013.pdf

18/8/3

They only lowered it by 1 hurricane and 1 major hurricane but...


We expect an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.

I would say things are fixing to get really interesting. I can see us tracking multiple storms at one time very soon...

[NDG]

As I expected, they lowered the number of hurricanes and MJ hurricanes by one but left the total number of named storms forecast the same, it makes sense.
A pretty busy second half in August, September and October look to still be on track.

[cycloneye]

I find the CSU August forecast very good as I expected with a slight reduction but overall a very dangerous season looks like a given.

[cycloneye]

I have a medical appointment at 10 AM EDT on Friday around the same time CSU will release their August forecast. For that reason the posting at the first post list will be delayed until I get back to my PC. Maybe a fellow moderator adds it. But anyone of course can post it here.

I'm watching for it, Luis. Note that Phil Klotzbach is living in San Francisco now (his wife got a job with Clif Bars), so 10am EDT would be 7am PDT. Not sure he'll get it out that early.

See any dust there in PR from that SAL outbreak? Leading edge of thick dust is reaching you now.

Very gray sky here with visibility around 7 miles.

[cycloneye]

This week we will have more expert private firms and Government updating their forecasts among them TSR on the 6th and NOAA on the 8th.