2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[stormwise]

[12z/ EC EPS 9June] trends a stronger low pressure system, something to keep a eye on.

[MetroMike]

12Z CMC has a fairly strong system originating from the Caribbean heading NE over Central Florida coming out into the Atlantic.
Then again its only the CMC. Will have to see more models come to into agreement before we get excited.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS not too enthusiastic.

[Alyono]

One thing from the precip fields, the models are going with very strong wind shear over the Caribbean

[gatorcane]

Alyono, yes shear looks to be high especially north of the Caribbean...

The GFS is showing a tremendous amount of cyclone-killing shear over the SE Gulf and Florida waiting for whatever might form in the Western Caribbean should it move to the north. Consequently, the last couple of GFS runs seem to decouple the low where it gets sheared off to the NE. Of course in the medium to long-range and subject to change.

I think the GFS might be overdoing this shear considering we are in early June and the ECMWF is not showing nearly this much shear over the SE Gulf or Florida at least out through 168 hours though shear is ripping over the East-Central Caribbean and quite high over the SE Gulf and Florida (but not cyclone-killing)

GFS:


ECMWF:

[TheStormExpert]

The shear seems kind of strong for this time of year, seems the grip of the Godzilla El Niño does not want to let up.

[TheStormExpert]

[12z/ EC EPS 9June] trends a stronger low pressure system, something to keep a eye on.

Which model is this?

[Kingarabian]

[12z/ EC EPS 9June] trends a stronger low pressure system, something to keep a eye on.

Which model is this?

European ensembles.

[Kingarabian]

Euro trending stronger with that low near Florida. Down to 1003mb but still extending the time frame to 240 hours.

[NDG]

It looks to be monsoonal of origin, lots of westerly surface winds that the euro shows over the EPAC west of Central America in the 6-10 day range.

[cycloneye]

Interesting conversation between these two experts.

@MJVentrice · 12m12 minutes ago

The MJO is forecast to push across the Atlantic basin this week. Could see a boost in tropical convection.

Continue below graphic.



‏@EricBlake12 · 11m11 minutes ago

@MJVentrice decent chances for a 3rd system already. Any signal in GEFS/ECE?

@MJVentrice · 5m5 minutes ago

@EricBlake12 GEFS is overdoing its odds over the Caribbean IMO... 40% but classic overcooking in this scenario

‏@MJVentrice · 6m6 minutes ago

@EricBlake12 ECMWF is just showing the East Pac threat. But there are hints of the East Pac storm to track across Central America to o/GOM

[northjaxpro]

Just a model run from 0Z 180 hr NAVGEM, which shows a moderately strong tropical storm near the Cayman Islands one week from now. Just a model run to post. But the models, including our two most reliable ones, EURO and GFS, are latching onto something to develop within the next week down into the Northwest Caribbean or SE GOM. Shear still may be an issue down the road looking at the model runs regarding upper level westerlies late into the 7 day long range period. This remains to be seen. But, at least we may have potential more activity to monitor going into the first full week of the official start of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

[northjaxpro]

Also, EURO and GFS in their most updated runs, are also depicting quite a sigfnificant upper level trough for this time of the year for early June developing down into the Eastern CONUS by next week. Looking ahead, should this verify, upper level westerlies will probably be quite strong. So, whatever that tries to get going down and moves north out of the NW Caribbean or SE GOM may have a similar fate to what we just saw with Bonnie, being ripped apart by shear.

[SouthDadeFish]

There is definitely a signal in the models for increased convection in the EPAC/western ATL associated with the MJO. However, the GFS shows a much more amplified MJO in the western hemisphere than the Euro does. Regardless, there will be a lot of convection, so it is quite possible to get another TC in the Atlantic within the next two weeks before more unfavorable conditions take over the basin.

[psyclone]

Regardless of potential TC formation, things look to get very juicy by next weekend as tropical moisture surges into FL via the Caribbean. NWS Tampa Bay mentions this in their early morning discussion:

On Sunday models show even deeper moisture (PW`s increasing toward 2
inches) advecting into the region from the western Caribbean on a
deep layered southwest wind flow on the southeast side of the upper
level trough/closed low over the southern Plains. This deeper
moisture coupled with daytime heating and the sea breeze boundaries
will lead to numerous showers and scattered storms across the
forecast area during the afternoon and early evening hours...with
some locally heavy rainfall possible.

The transport mechanism referenced would probably result in a hostile shear environment for a TC as some have referenced above but at least this should deliver some needed rain to those that have missed the convective jackpots thus far.

[NDG]

I on the other hand will not be surprised of conditions become better over the Caribbean in 7-15 day range as it usually does when the MJO visits our part of the world.

[TheStormExpert]

The 12z GFS has the low tracking through the NW Caribbean towards the NE Tip of the Yucatan Peninsula where the vorticity stalls and dies out around Hr. 216.

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC shows something like the 00Z Euro but a little stronger and a faster ejection to the NE out of the Caribbean:

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro now with just a weak 1007mb low over Central Florida @ 240hrs.

[Kingarabian]

Euro showing that associated convection with low to be well stretched. Shear fortunately will be a problem.