Gulf Coast Disturbance (early August)

[dixiebreeze]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

Northeast Gulf disturbance now an Invest.


Edit: It's showing up as an Invest on the SSD page, not on NRL or in the BT database, so it isn't truly an Invest yet - admin.

[HurricaneBelle]

That is some biblical rain heading to Tampa

Barely rained here in the immediate Tampa Bay area (Pinellas/Hillsborough). As has been the case for the last couple of days with this system, most of the precip stayed to the north and the stuff over the Gulf poofed out by late afternoon.

[Dean4Storms]

See a small vort near Perry, FL and it now appears to be drifting west. If it moves at all WSW this will get over water.

[Dean4Storms]

Also wonder if the Ridge this evening extending east from TX is not getting beat back by the MCS now diving SSE thru MS from Arkansas which might be the trigger to allow this to drift back westward?

[Aric Dunn]

See a small vort near Perry, FL and it now appears to be drifting west. If it moves at all WSW this will get over water.

I see it offshore horseshoe beach. pretty clearly on radar. still very broad..

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Hurricanebelle...I'm in temple terrace and not a drop yet!!

[Aric Dunn]

See a small vort near Perry, FL and it now appears to be drifting west. If it moves at all WSW this will get over water.

I see it offshore horseshoe beach. pretty clearly on radar. still very broad..

there is also possibly multiple little vorts out there. rotating around a very elongated circ.

[Nimbus]

Pressures at buoy 42036 have been falling and they have 15kt winds out of the WSW

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42036

That buoy is very close to where the link bamajammer4eva posted shows a center

https://www.windyty.com/?namConus,gust,29.198,-83.897,8

My guess was high.

[cycloneye]

A stationary trough of low pressure continues to produce widespread
cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms over the northeastern Gulf
of Mexico and Apalachee Bay. Some increase in organization is
possible during the next day or two before the system moves inland
over the southeastern United States. Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall is expected over portions of the northern and central
Florida peninsula, as well as much of the Florida panhandle.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[bamajammer4eva]

Any circulation would appear to be within 25 miles of shore so maybe thats why the North side has no weather? Wouldn't this need to move to about 100 miles or so offshore to have a little breathing room to get anything going??

[Steve]

Nam at 18z ejects a piece at 850mb which was probably the piece gfs was showing around South Carolina from a couple of days ago. That rains out inland along the coast and intact against a push from offshore. Meanwhile a new low forms at 850 off the Panhandle and moves into Southern Alabama as a new pulse is near the mouth of the river. That's a lot going on at the surface, but the one I have only goes 4 days. At 500 the low moves into South Florida so it's nothing real stacked as the nam sees it but it's got at least 2 watchable surface lows. We will know by Wednesday how it did.

[Aric Dunn]

Nam at 18z ejects a piece at 850mb which was probably the piece gfs was showing around South Carolina from a couple of days ago. That rains out inland along the coast and intact against a push from offshore. Meanwhile a new low forms at 850 off the Panhandle and moves into Southern Alabama as a new pulse is near the mouth of the river. That's a lot going on at the surface, but the one I have only goes 4 days. At 500 the low moves into South Florida so it's nothing real stacked as the nam sees it but it's got at least 2 watchable surface lows. We will know by Wednesday how it did.

yeah the steering if something does develop would drift south. a weak low level system would likely wobble around before lifting northerly.

[Aric Dunn]

Any circulation would appear to be within 25 miles of shore so maybe thats why the North side has no weather? Wouldn't this need to move to about 100 miles or so offshore to have a little breathing room to get anything going??

it would help with the influence of the land heating differential. otherwise florida is flat and moisture is abundant. as long as the center remains offshore it can organize.. albeit slower

[Dean4Storms]

ENE wind and pressure falling now at 29.87" at Keaton Bch. C-Man station....

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=ktnf1

[Aric Dunn]

its definitely sitting off horseshoe beach and becoming more defined

[Aric Dunn]

very easy to to see now..especially on doppler velocity

[stormhunter7]

you saying due west of horseshoe beach? I watched a vortice spin into perry right before sunset. so wonder if this is taking over?

[gatorcane]

850mb vorticity is increasing. The ECMWF predicted this and also shows this vorticity moving inland over north Florida overnight and into tomorrow am

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[Aric Dunn]

you saying due west of horseshoe beach? I watched a vortice spin into perry right before sunset. so wonder if this is taking over?

yeah I watched that too.I imagine there have been multiple vorts around. this one however has convection and clearly its beginning to tighten.

[Aric Dunn]

watch the cedar key station for pressure falls