2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Steve]

That makes sense because it would be the mid and upper level moisture propagating across anyway. Already tonight there have been SW to NE bands set up across SE and SC LA which I think is indicative of the current flow. Local met was talking about rain through next Monday night.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/870258246883344384

[AtlanticWind]

CMC develops 2 Hurricanes in the in the next 10 days

[AxaltaRacing24]

CMC develops 2 Hurricanes in the in the next 10 days

I can believe that we will have one tropical storm in the next ten days but two hurricanes? That'd shock me.

[AutoPenalti]

CMC 12z develops what appears to be energy from TWO-E and traverses the GOM intensifying into a moderate TS within 7 days.

[tarheelprogrammer]

CMC 12z develops what appears to be energy from TWO-E and traverses the GOM intensifying into a moderate TS within 7 days.

It seems to be ignoring the shear.

[stormlover2013]

Cmc on crack like always lol

[NDG]

12z Euro a little more bullish with development in the BOC.

[floridasun78]

look like june could be active models if are right and july could be active too

[Kingarabian]

CMC may not be that crazy, Euro shows a strong TS making landfall over Eastern Florida (but it's still 200+hrs out).

[TheStormExpert]

CMC may not be that crazy, Euro shows a strong TS making landfall over Eastern Florida (but it's still 200+hrs out).

Looks to turn frontal once in the central GoM.

[Alyono]

likely nontropical

[weathaguyry]

likely nontropical

Could it possibly be subtropical due to its location?

[NDG]

CMC may not be that crazy, Euro shows a strong TS making landfall over Eastern Florida (but it's still 200+hrs out).

Looks to turn frontal once in the central GoM.

I would take anything the Euro shows beyond its 7 day range forecast with a grain of salt, by no means it is that good in that range.

[Alyono]

likely nontropical

Could it possibly be subtropical due to its location?

fully nontropical. Looks frontal

[cycloneye]

From TS Beatriz discussion at 4 PM CDT advisory.

The latest ECMWF and Canadian model
runs suggest the possibility the remnants of the cyclone could
regenerate over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. However, strong
vertical wind shear forecast over the Gulf by all of the large-scale
models makes this an uncertain scenario at best.

In other words,it could regenerate in GOM if shear unexpectly relaxes.

[LarryWx]

CMC 12z develops what appears to be energy from TWO-E and traverses the GOM intensifying into a moderate TS within 7 days.

It seems to be ignoring the shear.

In reality, the CMC really does seem to downplay strong shear constantly. That imo is the main reason it develops so many fake TC's/makes them way too strong. Why this isn't fixed is a mystery. Maybe the model enjoys being called the "Crazy Uncle" and wants to retain that nickname??

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/870412012311937024

[weathaguyry]

I just wanted to mention this for fun, gotta love the long range GFS (Bottom Right of the Map)

[Hammy]

If the GFS is showing phantom storms this early, could that be an indicator that the base conditions are more favorable than recent years?