Strong Tropical Wave WSW of CV Islands (INVEST 94L is up)

[cycloneye]

A wiscasters dream I see. Has the GFS officially taken over the CMC? Or has the CMC invaded the GFS? I feel that An investigation should be started by Congress.

Current version of the GFS is dead in four weeks anyway.

July 19th is the GFS upgrade date.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification ... pgrade.htm

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I find it telling that the NHC outlook text does NOT include: before conditions become unfavorable later in the week (or what ever).

Hmmmmm.

Because they shouldn't. Ocean temperatures will only be marginal in the short term (next 2 days), then warm to above average levels as the wave moves west-northwest.

Shear is low and will remain low, with models indicating an expansive anticyclone aloft.

Moisture may be a bit of a factor, especially since this wave will track a path more poleward to Bret, but it's worth noting that models indicate a moisture surge from east of the disturbance that should act to repel a good chunk of dry air that lurks to the north.

If it makes it north of the islands as a defined entity, we may be dealing with something more than a weak tropical storm. Unless forecasts change.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

A wiscasters dream I see. Has the GFS officially taken over the CMC? Or has the CMC invaded the GFS? I feel that An investigation should be started by Congress.

Current version of the GFS is dead in four weeks anyway.

July 19th is the GFS upgrade date.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification ... pgrade.htm

And this shouldn't excite anyone. The GFSP has the same or worse skill in both the Atlantic and East Pacific, and the model seems to struggle with convective feedback.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro Parallel continues to show nothing more than 1014mb low.

[toad strangler]

These GFS fantasy range shots are just eye candy. Nothing more.

[Hammy]

12z Euro Parallel continues to show nothing more than 1014mb low.

Isn't that weaker than the previous run? Not sure why they went with 40% instead of 20%.

[WeatherHoon]

12z Euro Parallel continues to show nothing more than 1014mb low.

Isn't that weaker than the previous run? Not sure why they went with 40% instead of 20%.

I'm sure NHC has a good reason for increasing the chances that doesn't necessarily include looking at ONE model run.

[AutoPenalti]

12z Euro Parallel continues to show nothing more than 1014mb low.

Isn't that weaker than the previous run? Not sure why they went with 40% instead of 20%.

I'm pretty sure the NHC doesn't solely rely on the GFS and the Euro for their TWO's.


At least, I hope not.

[Hurricaneman]

I in no way can believe this will make landfall in Daytona Beach as a cat 3 hurricane as the 18zGFS shows as that's fantasy range so let's see what the 0z shows or even the 0zEuro shows

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS-Para is coming in stronger than last run already at hour 126. GFS-OP is about the same as 18z so far at hour 114. Hmmmmmmm..........

[WeatherEmperor]

Noticably weaker compared to 18z




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[WeatherEmperor]

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[MetroMike]

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Yes weaker at that point but it ramps up closer to conus. Would not put much into that. I am going to look at trends going forward.

[GCANE]

Noticable convergence at 10N 30W.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

Latest GFS has a surface low forming here in the next few hours.

[GCANE]

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... .819,9.806

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

Latest GFS fantasy has it crossing FL into the GOM.

[GCANE]

Successive GFS runs do have 355K PV becoming weaker and weaker in the Bahamas as it approaches.

The "no recurve" idea could be viable.

[beoumont]

Nice upper air just east of Leewards on day 5:

[TheStormExpert]

Successive GFS runs do have 355K PV becoming weaker and weaker in the Bahamas as it approaches.

The "no recurve" idea could be viable.

What exactly does that mean, I'm still learning.