Wave well east of Lesser Antilles (Is INVEST 96L)

[cycloneye]

Generally, and there's no rule for this, Invest are declared when NHC is at 20% for 48 hrs. But sometimes, there's an invest with 0% or 10%, or even 30%

That is it.

[LarryWx]

Though just a weak low, the 12Z Euro is in an unsafe position with regard to the CONUS: Hispaniola at hour 192 and getting underneath the right side of a big ridge. Let's see how this run ends. Will it still be able to escape?

Meanwhile, this is causing a huge flooding problem for the Dom. Rep.

[SFLcane]

[SouthFLTropics]

End of run looks like it's trapped under the ridge. However, there looks to be a decent trough digging across the Midwest that could arrive in time to kick it out to sea if the run continued further. Interesting and nerve racking days ahead.

[SFLcane]

End of run looks like it's trapped under the ridge. However, there looks to be a decent trough digging across the Midwest that could arrive in time to kick it out to sea if the run continued further. Interesting and nerve racking days ahead.

If you look at the 500 pattern on the ecmwf it would probably go north northwest from there.

[sma10]

Though just a weak low, the 12Z Euro is in an unsafe position with regard to the CONUS: Hispaniola at hour 192 and getting underneath the right side of a big ridge. Let's see how this run ends. Will it still be able to escape?

Meanwhile, this is causing a huge flooding problem for the Dom. Rep.

The EPS ensemble breakdown might also be interesting later

In a side note, remarkable agreement between Euro, CMC and NAVGEM for so many days out. GFS slight outlier, stronger and further NE (though interestingly, note that about 50% of the GEFS members are more in line with Euro/CMC)

[sma10]

End of run looks like it's trapped under the ridge. However, there looks to be a decent trough digging across the Midwest that could arrive in time to kick it out to sea if the run continued further. Interesting and nerve racking days ahead.

Absolutely.

The actual finer points of center location and ridge/trof alignment at 240 hours out is folly. But the general signals point to possible anxiety, especially for the NW Bahamas who can't deal with anything else, regardless of strength.

[LarryWx]

Though just a weak low, the 12Z Euro is in an unsafe position with regard to the CONUS: Hispaniola at hour 192 and getting underneath the right side of a big ridge. Let's see how this run ends. Will it still be able to escape?

Meanwhile, this is causing a huge flooding problem for the Dom. Rep.

The EPS ensemble breakdown might also be interesting later

In a side note, remarkable agreement between Euro, CMC and NAVGEM for so many days out. GFS slight outlier, stronger and further NE (though interestingly, note that about 50% of the GEFS members are more in line with Euro/CMC)

At 240, the 12Z EPS is centered all around the 12Z Euro's position and the mean has a similarly positioned ridge to its N and NW. So, I'm now going to see where the members go from there. this will give us a good hint at where the Euro would have gone after 240.

[sma10]

Though just a weak low, the 12Z Euro is in an unsafe position with regard to the CONUS: Hispaniola at hour 192 and getting underneath the right side of a big ridge. Let's see how this run ends. Will it still be able to escape?

Meanwhile, this is causing a huge flooding problem for the Dom. Rep.

The EPS ensemble breakdown might also be interesting later

In a side note, remarkable agreement between Euro, CMC and NAVGEM for so many days out. GFS slight outlier, stronger and further NE (though interestingly, note that about 50% of the GEFS members are more in line with Euro/CMC)

At 240, the 12Z EPS is centered all around the 12Z Euro's position and the mean has a similarly positioned ridge to its N and NW. So, I'm now going to see where the members go from there. this will give us a good hint at where the Euro would have gone after 240.

It will also be interesting to know relative strengths. That area is of course notorious for ideal conditions

[stormlover2013]

still to far out we will keep seeing it flip flop

[SFLcane]

Interesting EPS this afternoon. We're that turn north occurs is key

[LarryWx]

Interesting EPS this afternoon. We're that turn north occurs is key

https://i.imgur.com/xGyyiKE.png

Thanks for posting this hour 240 map. I assume you realize it but to avoid confusion among some of the readers, the only CONUS hit from this wave is the one that just hit Naples. The others hitting FL are from the wave nearby. The rest of the members are still offshore.

[TheStormExpert]

Interesting EPS this afternoon. We're that turn north occurs is key

https://i.imgur.com/xGyyiKE.png

What a hot mess!

[sma10]

Interesting EPS this afternoon. We're that turn north occurs is key

https://i.imgur.com/xGyyiKE.png

Thanks for posting this hour 240 map. I assume you realize it but to avoid confusion among some of the readers, the only CONUS hit from this wave is the one that just hit Naples. The others hitting FL are from the wave nearby. The rest of the members are still offshore.

Yes, only the one. The half dozen or so positioned South of Cuba are very likely threats, however

[LarryWx]

Interesting EPS this afternoon. We're that turn north occurs is key

https://i.imgur.com/xGyyiKE.png

The verdict is in. Almost 25% (12) either hit or are a clear CONUS threat: 5 in Gulf, ~6 SE US, 1 NE US. Most of the other ~75% recurve well east of the US. So, a recurve east of the CONUS continues to be the most favored outcome per model consensus by a pretty good margin. This has been the case for several days and it is holding. Hopefully, that is a good sign. But 25% is still way too high for comfort and model biases may mean that the 25% rises later.

[Blown Away]

Interesting EPS this afternoon. We're that turn north occurs is key

https://i.imgur.com/xGyyiKE.png

The verdict is in. Almost 25% (12) either hit or are a clear CONUS threat: 5 in Gulf, ~6 SE US, 1 NE US. Most of the other ~75% recurve well east of the US. So, a recurve east of the CONUS continues to be the most favored outcome per model consensus by a pretty good margin. This has been the case for several days and it is holding. Hopefully, that is a good sign. But 25% is still way too high for comfort and model biases may mean that the 25% rises later.

Seems once this area deepens into a hurricane it will be influenced north and the Euro seems to think that may happen between 65-75 West...

[LarryWx]

Happy Hour GFS should be an easy recurve from the CONUS per its 192 position.

[DioBrando]

I'm honestly wondering when this will get invested.

[SFLcane]

Trof parade on latest gfs... yep there’s your dangerous steering pattern.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Trof parade on latest gfs... yep there’s your dangerous steering pattern.

Good luck with a 240 hour trof verifying.