Area of disturbed weather entering the Caribbean (Is Invest 96L)

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LarryWx
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Re: Tropical wave to move into the Caribbean for possible early-November development

#221 Postby LarryWx » Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:41 pm

12Z GEFS:

Image
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Re: Tropical wave to move into the Caribbean for possible early-November development

#222 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:57 pm

The 12Z ECMWF actually develops this!
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Re: Tropical wave to move into the Caribbean for possible early-November development

#223 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:58 pm

I think this from the JMA and Euro is sure to raise some eyebrows...

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Re: Tropical wave to move into the Caribbean for possible early-November development

#224 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:14 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:I think this from the JMA and Euro is sure to raise some eyebrows...

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201027/04db1ac04bc1b3ce7efb6260af299a10.png
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201027/ad0729b91274c4898fac2681292a0c89.png


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Development seems very possible but also looking at the Euro, it is showing a significant front pushing through the GOM, Florida, and northern NW Caribbean. This is around the time of year we look for such a “season-ending” front for the US and Florida and this might just very well be it

Image
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Re: Tropical wave to move into the Caribbean for possible early-November development

#225 Postby SFLcane » Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:26 pm

gatorcane wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:I think this from the JMA and Euro is sure to raise some eyebrows...

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201027/04db1ac04bc1b3ce7efb6260af299a10.png
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201027/ad0729b91274c4898fac2681292a0c89.png


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Development seems very possible but also looking at the Euro, it is showing a significant front pushing through the GOM, Florida, and northern NW Caribbean. This is around the time of year we look for such a “season-ending” front for the US and Florida and this might just very well be it

https://i.postimg.cc/9QFGCFD1/ecmwf-T850a-us-fh72-240.gif


Gatorcane I would not hold my breath on any season ending cold front yet.
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Re: Tropical wave to move into the Caribbean for possible early-November development

#226 Postby SFLcane » Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:34 pm

I expect this area to be highlighted by the nhc during the next couple of days.

EPS :eek:

Image
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Re: Tropical wave to move into the Caribbean for possible early-November development

#227 Postby cp79 » Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:38 pm

Agree on the season-ending cold front coming in. Temps here in Tampa supposed to start dropping over the weekend and then again next week as fronts begin to sweep through. This should kick out any storms out to sea. Feeling safe here in Fla but will still keep an eye on it.
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Re: Tropical wave to move into the Caribbean for possible early-November development

#228 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:42 pm

Oh man, can't count how many times we've seen these "super fronts" modeled only for them to be weakened or pushed back further in time.
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Re: Tropical wave to move into the Caribbean for possible early-November development

#229 Postby aspen » Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:47 pm

SFLcane wrote:I expect this area to be highlighted by the nhc during the next couple of days.

EPS :eek:

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Re: Tropical wave to move into the Caribbean for possible early-November development

#230 Postby SFLcane » Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:49 pm

Gfs is trash showing development till it gets in medium range only to pick it back up.
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Re: Tropical wave to move into the Caribbean for possible early-November development

#231 Postby LarryWx » Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:55 pm

The idea of a "season ending cold front" seems fictitious/too simplistic in any season. How could one cold front "end the season"? Airmasses always modify because the oceans hold onto the heat much longer.
Last edited by LarryWx on Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:58 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Tropical wave to move into the Caribbean for possible early-November development

#232 Postby boca » Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:56 pm

We will not have any season ending cold fronts due to the NAO going back to positive. These friends will not really cool us down here on the east coast because of the NE winds.I will be keeping an eye on the Caribbean next week.
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Re: Tropical wave to move into the Caribbean for possible early-November development

#233 Postby SFLcane » Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:25 pm

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Re: Tropical wave to move into the Caribbean for possible early-November development

#234 Postby toad strangler » Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:37 pm

I'm going with climo on this one because that is my right :flag: I'm a real cautious dude almost ALL YEAR being from South Central FL.. You won't ever find me wringing my hands over marginal SST anomalies, SAL, etc. BUT, when Halloween rears it's head I become much more skeptical. That said, I still have ALL of my hurricane supplies. The only thing i've done was burn off the small amount of treated gas I put in my genny in June to get her running and now she's empty.
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Re: Tropical wave to move into the Caribbean for possible early-November development

#235 Postby ClarCari » Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:41 pm

NHC now has a potential system in the EPAC in their TWO. Why is this important here?
Because that’s the first sign of the MJO propagating to the Caribbean shortly after.
I’d imagine the NHC will see the suspicious system soon enough within the next week.
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Re: Tropical wave to move into the Caribbean for possible early-November development

#236 Postby underthwx » Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:42 pm

LarryWx wrote:12Z GEFS:

https://i.imgur.com/4iOGQXs.png


Looks like deja vu Larry...goodness gracious...
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Re: Tropical wave to move into the Caribbean for possible early-November development

#237 Postby SFLcane » Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:46 pm

toad strangler wrote:I'm going with climo on this one because that is my right :flag: I'm a real cautious dude almost ALL YEAR being from South Central FL.. You won't ever find me wringing my hands over marginal SST anomalies, SAL, etc. BUT, when Halloween rears it's head I become much more skeptical. That said, I still have ALL of my hurricane supplies. The only thing i've done was burn off the small amount of treated gas I put in my genny in June to get her running and now she's empty.


I just have this feeling this season isn’t going to let Florida off the hook before it’s all said and done.
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Re: Tropical wave to move into the Caribbean for possible early-November development

#238 Postby Steve H. » Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:56 pm

Next weekend's cold front won't make it south of central florida, and there will be no noticeable change in temps. I hope by Thanksgiving we'll get on. Last year we had only a couple of cold days all year in central florida, and they weren't exactly cold. Those days are gone it seems.
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Re: Tropical wave to move into the Caribbean for possible early-November development

#239 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:58 pm

Steve H. wrote:Next weekend's cold front won't make it south of central florida, and there will be no noticeable change in temps. I hope by Thanksgiving we'll get on. Last year we had only a couple of cold days all year in central florida, and they weren't exactly cold. Those days are gone it seems.



Heck, we may not see much of any cold at all down across North and Central FL peninsula with the anticipated La Nina going into the "winter" months ahead.
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Re: Tropical wave to move into the Caribbean for possible early-November development

#240 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:04 pm

gatorcane wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:I think this from the JMA and Euro is sure to raise some eyebrows...

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201027/04db1ac04bc1b3ce7efb6260af299a10.png
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201027/ad0729b91274c4898fac2681292a0c89.png


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Development seems very possible but also looking at the Euro, it is showing a significant front pushing through the GOM, Florida, and northern NW Caribbean. This is around the time of year we look for such a “season-ending” front for the US and Florida and this might just very well be it

https://i.postimg.cc/9QFGCFD1/ecmwf-T850a-us-fh72-240.gif

The NAO is going to be positive so I have significant doubts on any significant cold front pushing through Florida anytime soon.
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