2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
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- wxman57
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
I'm not "buying" the GFS solution at all. It does this every May. Most likely something weak in the East Pac.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
GFS time frame moving closer doesn't mean much. The GFS could bring the time frame in to 96 hours and still drop this and show it in the EPAC.
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- skyline385
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
The EPS seems to be getting on it too, waiting for the 12Z run to fully load
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- skyline385
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Yep, more members on the full EPS run in the Gulf now. I think with this and the GFS members increasing every run while the timeframe remains the same, there is a decent chance here.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
skyline385 wrote:Yep, more members on the full EPS run in the Gulf now. I think with this and the GFS members increasing every run while the timeframe remains the same, there is a decent chance here.
[url]https://i.imgur.com/fvsm5mK.jpg[url]
Looks like IF it gets picked up it could have a decent shot to be a coherent TC. But yeah, the origins aren't in question here. There will be something near CA in 5 days. Just comes down to the steering and where it forms.
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- skyline385
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Kingarabian wrote:skyline385 wrote:Yep, more members on the full EPS run in the Gulf now. I think with this and the GFS members increasing every run while the timeframe remains the same, there is a decent chance here.
[url]https://i.imgur.com/fvsm5mK.jpg[url]
Looks like IF it gets picked up it could have a decent shot to be a coherent TC. But yeah, the origins aren't in question here. There will be something near CA in 5 days. Just comes down to the steering and where it forms.
Yep, basically depends on whether the EURO has a strong ridge bias or not but even with that there are plenty of members forming something in the Gulf.
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1525546718414127104
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Kingarabian wrote:GFS time frame moving closer doesn't mean much. The GFS could bring the time frame in to 96 hours and still drop this and show it in the EPAC.
Yeah just means what we saw probably wasn't your usual GFS ghost storm. It did see the CAG/TW but has the potential to miss where that will be (EPAC, Central America, or Caribbean)
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
NotSparta wrote:Kingarabian wrote:GFS time frame moving closer doesn't mean much. The GFS could bring the time frame in to 96 hours and still drop this and show it in the EPAC.
Yeah just means what we saw probably wasn't your usual GFS ghost storm. It did see the CAG/TW but has the potential to miss where that will be (EPAC, Central America, or Caribbean)
This has been consistent for far too long on the GFS to just be ignored. I feel like ghost storms just pop up here and there but this has been consistent for several days and runs now.
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- DorkyMcDorkface
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Outside of the potential CAG, GFS has a hurricane-strength TC in the South Atlantic?
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Cpv17 wrote:NotSparta wrote:Kingarabian wrote:GFS time frame moving closer doesn't mean much. The GFS could bring the time frame in to 96 hours and still drop this and show it in the EPAC.
Yeah just means what we saw probably wasn't your usual GFS ghost storm. It did see the CAG/TW but has the potential to miss where that will be (EPAC, Central America, or Caribbean)
This has been consistent for far too long on the GFS to just be ignored. I feel like ghost storms just pop up here and there but this has been consistent for several days and runs now.
This isn't atypical for this time of year, there's usually a monsoon trough it (correctly) picks up but shoots it north instead of into Central America or the Pacific where it ultimately ends up.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
If (Big if) the 18z run happens, then the ACE would be off the charts.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Cpv17 wrote:NotSparta wrote:Kingarabian wrote:GFS time frame moving closer doesn't mean much. The GFS could bring the time frame in to 96 hours and still drop this and show it in the EPAC.
Yeah just means what we saw probably wasn't your usual GFS ghost storm. It did see the CAG/TW but has the potential to miss where that will be (EPAC, Central America, or Caribbean)
This has been consistent for far too long on the GFS to just be ignored. I feel like ghost storms just pop up here and there but this has been consistent for several days and runs now.
It's still far out. I've seen the GFS show ghosts until about the 4 day mark. This model doesn't care.
That being said, it is a CAG which can create multiple systems. So even though this WCaribbean storm may end up as a ghost we could still see development elsewhere.
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- SFLcane
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Gfs now with a TD in 126hrs. Maybe a TWO tomorrow.
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- skyline385
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Andy seems genuinely pissed at the happy hour run lol
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1525610245418102785
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1525610245418102785
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- AtlanticWind
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
[quote="SFLcane"]Gfs now with a TD in 126hrs. Maybe a TWO tomorrow.[/quote
The regular TWO start tomorrow morning, we will see if this is mentioned .
The regular TWO start tomorrow morning, we will see if this is mentioned .
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