2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139593
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#221 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 14, 2022 1:18 pm

1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22505
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#222 Postby wxman57 » Sat May 14, 2022 1:25 pm

I'm not "buying" the GFS solution at all. It does this every May. Most likely something weak in the East Pac.
5 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15461
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#223 Postby Kingarabian » Sat May 14, 2022 2:22 pm

GFS time frame moving closer doesn't mean much. The GFS could bring the time frame in to 96 hours and still drop this and show it in the EPAC.
4 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2568
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Houston TX

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#224 Postby skyline385 » Sat May 14, 2022 2:31 pm

The EPS seems to be getting on it too, waiting for the 12Z run to fully load

Image
3 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9626
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#225 Postby SFLcane » Sat May 14, 2022 2:42 pm

Image
0 likes   

Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6617
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#226 Postby Stormcenter » Sat May 14, 2022 3:34 pm

I say 50/50 chance now. IMO
1 likes   

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2568
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Houston TX

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#227 Postby skyline385 » Sat May 14, 2022 3:44 pm

Yep, more members on the full EPS run in the Gulf now. I think with this and the GFS members increasing every run while the timeframe remains the same, there is a decent chance here.

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15461
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#228 Postby Kingarabian » Sat May 14, 2022 3:54 pm

skyline385 wrote:Yep, more members on the full EPS run in the Gulf now. I think with this and the GFS members increasing every run while the timeframe remains the same, there is a decent chance here.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/fvsm5mK.jpg[url]


Looks like IF it gets picked up it could have a decent shot to be a coherent TC. But yeah, the origins aren't in question here. There will be something near CA in 5 days. Just comes down to the steering and where it forms.
3 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2568
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Houston TX

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#229 Postby skyline385 » Sat May 14, 2022 4:02 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
skyline385 wrote:Yep, more members on the full EPS run in the Gulf now. I think with this and the GFS members increasing every run while the timeframe remains the same, there is a decent chance here.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/fvsm5mK.jpg[url]


Looks like IF it gets picked up it could have a decent shot to be a coherent TC. But yeah, the origins aren't in question here. There will be something near CA in 5 days. Just comes down to the steering and where it forms.


Yep, basically depends on whether the EURO has a strong ridge bias or not but even with that there are plenty of members forming something in the Gulf.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1525546718414127104


0 likes   

User avatar
NotSparta
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1660
Age: 22
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#230 Postby NotSparta » Sat May 14, 2022 4:49 pm

Kingarabian wrote:GFS time frame moving closer doesn't mean much. The GFS could bring the time frame in to 96 hours and still drop this and show it in the EPAC.


Yeah just means what we saw probably wasn't your usual GFS ghost storm. It did see the CAG/TW but has the potential to miss where that will be (EPAC, Central America, or Caribbean)
1 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.

My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com

User avatar
Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4422
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#231 Postby Cpv17 » Sat May 14, 2022 5:13 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:GFS time frame moving closer doesn't mean much. The GFS could bring the time frame in to 96 hours and still drop this and show it in the EPAC.


Yeah just means what we saw probably wasn't your usual GFS ghost storm. It did see the CAG/TW but has the potential to miss where that will be (EPAC, Central America, or Caribbean)


This has been consistent for far too long on the GFS to just be ignored. I feel like ghost storms just pop up here and there but this has been consistent for several days and runs now.
3 likes   

User avatar
DorkyMcDorkface
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 742
Age: 26
Joined: Mon Sep 30, 2019 1:32 pm
Location: Mid-Atlantic

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#232 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Sat May 14, 2022 5:25 pm

Outside of the potential CAG, GFS has a hurricane-strength TC in the South Atlantic?
Image
Image
6 likes   
Floyd 1999 | Isabel 2003 | Hanna 2008 | Irene 2011 | Sandy 2012 | Isaias 2020

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 40
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#233 Postby Hammy » Sat May 14, 2022 5:31 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:GFS time frame moving closer doesn't mean much. The GFS could bring the time frame in to 96 hours and still drop this and show it in the EPAC.


Yeah just means what we saw probably wasn't your usual GFS ghost storm. It did see the CAG/TW but has the potential to miss where that will be (EPAC, Central America, or Caribbean)


This has been consistent for far too long on the GFS to just be ignored. I feel like ghost storms just pop up here and there but this has been consistent for several days and runs now.


This isn't atypical for this time of year, there's usually a monsoon trough it (correctly) picks up but shoots it north instead of into Central America or the Pacific where it ultimately ends up.
2 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139593
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#234 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 14, 2022 5:50 pm

If (Big if) the 18z run happens, then the ACE would be off the charts.
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

IcyTundra
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 892
Joined: Mon Jun 07, 2021 9:32 pm
Location: Dickinson, Texas

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#235 Postby IcyTundra » Sat May 14, 2022 6:04 pm

Happy hour GFS lmao.
2 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139593
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#236 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 14, 2022 6:05 pm

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15461
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#237 Postby Kingarabian » Sat May 14, 2022 6:13 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:GFS time frame moving closer doesn't mean much. The GFS could bring the time frame in to 96 hours and still drop this and show it in the EPAC.


Yeah just means what we saw probably wasn't your usual GFS ghost storm. It did see the CAG/TW but has the potential to miss where that will be (EPAC, Central America, or Caribbean)


This has been consistent for far too long on the GFS to just be ignored. I feel like ghost storms just pop up here and there but this has been consistent for several days and runs now.

It's still far out. I've seen the GFS show ghosts until about the 4 day mark. This model doesn't care.

That being said, it is a CAG which can create multiple systems. So even though this WCaribbean storm may end up as a ghost we could still see development elsewhere.
1 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9626
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#238 Postby SFLcane » Sat May 14, 2022 6:39 pm

Gfs now with a TD in 126hrs. Maybe a TWO tomorrow.
0 likes   

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2568
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Houston TX

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#239 Postby skyline385 » Sat May 14, 2022 7:12 pm

Andy seems genuinely pissed at the happy hour run lol

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1525610245418102785


0 likes   

User avatar
AtlanticWind
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1809
Age: 65
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:57 pm
Location: Plantation,Fla

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#240 Postby AtlanticWind » Sat May 14, 2022 8:04 pm

[quote="SFLcane"]Gfs now with a TD in 126hrs. Maybe a TWO tomorrow.[/quote

The regular TWO start tomorrow morning, we will see if this is mentioned .
1 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: cainjamin, Cpv17, Craters, FLCrackerGirl, LarryWx, Sps123, Stratton23, Texoz, Wampadawg and 90 guests