2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1525540294070095873

[wxman57]

I'm not "buying" the GFS solution at all. It does this every May. Most likely something weak in the East Pac.

[Kingarabian]

GFS time frame moving closer doesn't mean much. The GFS could bring the time frame in to 96 hours and still drop this and show it in the EPAC.

[skyline385]

The EPS seems to be getting on it too, waiting for the 12Z run to fully load

[SFLcane]

[Stormcenter]

I say 50/50 chance now. IMO

[skyline385]

Yep, more members on the full EPS run in the Gulf now. I think with this and the GFS members increasing every run while the timeframe remains the same, there is a decent chance here.

[Kingarabian]

Yep, more members on the full EPS run in the Gulf now. I think with this and the GFS members increasing every run while the timeframe remains the same, there is a decent chance here.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/fvsm5mK.jpg[url]

Looks like IF it gets picked up it could have a decent shot to be a coherent TC. But yeah, the origins aren't in question here. There will be something near CA in 5 days. Just comes down to the steering and where it forms.

[skyline385]

Yep, more members on the full EPS run in the Gulf now. I think with this and the GFS members increasing every run while the timeframe remains the same, there is a decent chance here.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/fvsm5mK.jpg[url]

Looks like IF it gets picked up it could have a decent shot to be a coherent TC. But yeah, the origins aren't in question here. There will be something near CA in 5 days. Just comes down to the steering and where it forms.

Yep, basically depends on whether the EURO has a strong ridge bias or not but even with that there are plenty of members forming something in the Gulf.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1525546718414127104

[NotSparta]

GFS time frame moving closer doesn't mean much. The GFS could bring the time frame in to 96 hours and still drop this and show it in the EPAC.

Yeah just means what we saw probably wasn't your usual GFS ghost storm. It did see the CAG/TW but has the potential to miss where that will be (EPAC, Central America, or Caribbean)

[Cpv17]

GFS time frame moving closer doesn't mean much. The GFS could bring the time frame in to 96 hours and still drop this and show it in the EPAC.

Yeah just means what we saw probably wasn't your usual GFS ghost storm. It did see the CAG/TW but has the potential to miss where that will be (EPAC, Central America, or Caribbean)

This has been consistent for far too long on the GFS to just be ignored. I feel like ghost storms just pop up here and there but this has been consistent for several days and runs now.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Outside of the potential CAG, GFS has a hurricane-strength TC in the South Atlantic?

[Hammy]

GFS time frame moving closer doesn't mean much. The GFS could bring the time frame in to 96 hours and still drop this and show it in the EPAC.

Yeah just means what we saw probably wasn't your usual GFS ghost storm. It did see the CAG/TW but has the potential to miss where that will be (EPAC, Central America, or Caribbean)

This has been consistent for far too long on the GFS to just be ignored. I feel like ghost storms just pop up here and there but this has been consistent for several days and runs now.

This isn't atypical for this time of year, there's usually a monsoon trough it (correctly) picks up but shoots it north instead of into Central America or the Pacific where it ultimately ends up.

[cycloneye]

If (Big if) the 18z run happens, then the ACE would be off the charts.

[IcyTundra]

Happy hour GFS lmao.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1525612722305605638

[Kingarabian]

GFS time frame moving closer doesn't mean much. The GFS could bring the time frame in to 96 hours and still drop this and show it in the EPAC.

Yeah just means what we saw probably wasn't your usual GFS ghost storm. It did see the CAG/TW but has the potential to miss where that will be (EPAC, Central America, or Caribbean)

This has been consistent for far too long on the GFS to just be ignored. I feel like ghost storms just pop up here and there but this has been consistent for several days and runs now.

It's still far out. I've seen the GFS show ghosts until about the 4 day mark. This model doesn't care.

That being said, it is a CAG which can create multiple systems. So even though this WCaribbean storm may end up as a ghost we could still see development elsewhere.

[SFLcane]

Gfs now with a TD in 126hrs. Maybe a TWO tomorrow.

[skyline385]

Andy seems genuinely pissed at the happy hour run lol

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1525610245418102785

[AtlanticWind]

[quote="SFLcane"]Gfs now with a TD in 126hrs. Maybe a TWO tomorrow.[/quote

The regular TWO start tomorrow morning, we will see if this is mentioned .