Tropical Wave in Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 91L)

[caneman]

wxman57 whats your take on a 64 Cleo analog for this AOI?

Potential track, should it develop, is similar to a number of storms. I like the 12Z GFS solution - no development at all anywhere through 384 hrs.

Lol. I'm sure say that in jest. Keep those weekends freed up.

[Bigtenfan]

wxman57 whats your take on a 64 Cleo analog for this AOI?

Potential track, should it develop, is similar to a number of storms. I like the 12Z GFS solution - no development at all anywhere through 384 hrs.

Like it because its what you( and a lot of us myself included) want to see or because you think that it is an accurate solution?

[Stratton23]

Its not an accurate solution lol, the GFS beyond 5-7 days is completely useless

[toad strangler]

12z CMC has a TC just south of central Cuba @ 210

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

I dont see any consistent model support for this

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro also says hold your horses GFS as it has a 1003 mb low at Grand Cayman at 216 hours.

[Stratton23]

Lol the euro/ EPS and CMC have been very consistent over the past 48 hours, the GFS/GEFS is really the only inconsistent guidance right now on it

[Teban54]

The reasoning behind GFS' shift is subtle, but we'll know which solution is right within ~36 hours. There are two primary lobes with this system - one near 40W and the other near 50W. The western area has more low-level vorticity, and the eastern mid level. The most likely genesis pathway is low-level vorticity developing in basically a straight line between the two (elongating the western area almost beyond recognition), the mid-level circulation drilling down and forming a low-level vortmax on the eastern edge of this strip of vorticity, and then sliding west and 'rolling' the linear strip of vorticity into a concentrated system. The GFS does drill the eastern MLC down to sfc, but it does not first form a 'bridge' of vorticity between the two lobes. It instead has that western side concentrating - meaning there's two low-level vorts. The east side still has the mid-level rotation, so the differences in steering flow cause the eastern side to slide over the western side with competition instead of bundling.

TLDR: Development (as modeled) will require convection over the next two days to either (1) remain focused to the east, and/or (2) linearly bridge the two lobes. If this is going to start bundling vorticity, it's gonna happen pretty damn soon.

Great analysis!

Considering that it's been 5 hours since the initialization of 12z GFS, I took a look at the actual evolution of the system. The loop below seems to show some new convection popping up inbetween the two lobes: the -70C tower in the last 2-3 frames of the loop, located at 46W, is such an example. While the two lobes themselves seem to have maintained similar amounts of convection over the 5 hours, it does seem that the eastern lobe has denser and cooler towers.



The trends in low-level vorticity from 6z to 15z also seem to show the western lobe extending (or even shifting) linearly to the east, although CIMSS's imagery seems to be at a lower resolution than GFS.



Of course, all of this could have also suffered from confirmation bias, so please draw your own conclusions. It might also be too early to tell.

[otowntiger]

12Z GFS drops it

That’s actually bad because it could go further west then.

what could go further west?

[SFLcane]

[toad strangler]

12z Euro shows a TC just S of western Cuba heading NW at the end of the run @ 240

[LarryWx]

https://i.postimg.cc/NFV9ZrVs/kkkk.png

Is Mr. Slowsky in charge of the speed of the 12Z CMC today? It is taking forever everywhere.

12Z Euro 240: halfway between Grand Cayman and Isle of Youth at 1003 mb moving slowly NW

[SFLcane]

https://i.postimg.cc/NFV9ZrVs/kkkk.png

Is Mr. Slowsky in charge of the speed of the 12Z CMC today? It is taking forever everywhere.

12Z Euro 240: halfway between Grand Cayman and Isle of Youth at 1003 mb moving slowly NW

fyi..dont by that euro one bit lol.

[toad strangler]

https://i.postimg.cc/NFV9ZrVs/kkkk.png

Is Mr. Slowsky in charge of the speed of the 12Z CMC today? It is taking forever everywhere.

12Z Euro 240: halfway between Grand Cayman and Isle of Youth at 1003 mb moving slowly NW

CMC ended with a TC just a hair S of Central Cuba moving slowly NW

[SFLcane]

https://i.postimg.cc/NFV9ZrVs/kkkk.png

Is Mr. Slowsky in charge of the speed of the 12Z CMC today? It is taking forever everywhere.

12Z Euro 240: halfway between Grand Cayman and Isle of Youth at 1003 mb moving slowly NW

CMC ended with a TC just a hair S of Central Cuba

Ended? Slowsky took over its stuck in 210 hrs.

[toad strangler]

Is Mr. Slowsky in charge of the speed of the 12Z CMC today? It is taking forever everywhere.

12Z Euro 240: halfway between Grand Cayman and Isle of Youth at 1003 mb moving slowly NW

CMC ended with a TC just a hair S of Central Cuba

Ended? Slowsky took over its stuck in 210 hrs.

MY BAD Adrian! Yes it's stuck at 210.

[Ivanhater]

Looks like heights are building back with the trough on the way out on Canadian...not good

[AutoPenalti]

CMC ended with a TC just a hair S of Central Cuba

Ended? Slowsky took over its stuck in 210 hrs.

MY BAD Adrian! Yes it's stuck at 210.

If you extrap that compared to 0z, that has to be a big bend run?

[LarryWx]

Well, I know Adrian isn’t currently nightnight unfortunately. Not good on the 12Z Euro ens as it is active again with many near FL.
Can we cancel this run?

[Stratton23]

Big yikes for the whole entire gulf and se us on the 12z EPS!