Major Hurricane in New York...

[jasons2k]

2 things to add. Many of the windows broken in Alicia were not supposed to based on their wind ratings alone; it was debris, mostly gravel from nearby rooftops, that ultimately caused them to fail.

Secondly, some windows failed in the Chase tower, Houston's tallest building, during Rita. Downtown Houston only received sustained TS winds from Rita, but at that height that building may have received marginal Cat. 1 conditions. Still, they failed below their rating.

[schmita]

I lived in Lower Manhattan and was there for Sept. 11. My building was one block from the South Tower. Our building was built in 1908 and is 17 stories tall. We felt the building shake from the impact of the planes then again when the towers collapsed. The impact blew out our lobby glass but we lost no windows further up.
I read someplace what the reading was in relation to an earthquake. Maybe someone can find that.

That being said, parts of Lower Manhattan flood during nasty NorthEasters. I was at the World Financial Center one night in 1990 I think it was when the plaza was completely breached by water from the Hudson. That was the same night a US Air plane had to abort at LaGuardia and skidded in to the bay.
irina

[donsutherland1]

Terstorm1012,

There is some evidence of that. Hence, I mentioned the Cat. 4 under special circumstances (probably at least a 1000-year event, maybe a 10,000-year one, except if a new much warmer Atlantic SST regime eventually become established beyond what occurs during the normal cycles).

[terstorm1012]

Are there papers on the HURDAT reanalysies that are publically available?

I'd like to read them, since I'm doing research on 'canes in NJ/DE/MD/VA.

[donsutherland1]

Jschlitz,

Good points. The flying debris issue is something that limits the application of wind ratings, which also might be somewhat overstated under current modeling (at least per the experience with Katrina, Rita, etc.).

Few if any of NYC's buildings are built to the standards of the NHC's headquarters. So, I'd be wary of any claims that the buildings could stand up to Cat. 4 much less a Cat. 5 hurricane (fortunately, a Cat. 5 is probably not possible under the current climate and a Cat. 4 is probably exceptionally rare).

[donsutherland1]

Terstorm1012,

A number of such papers can be found at:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/presentations.html and http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/landsea_bio.html

The Re-Analysis home page is: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data_sub/re_anal.html

[terstorm1012]

Thanks again Don.

[f5]

NYC's skyscrapers would act like a urban canyon for the winds .the winds would speed up faster making a "mini urban Santa Ana wind effect".for those who live around the LA area of southern california you know what i'm talking about when those winds funnel trough the canyons.

[krysof]

the winds would tear down some of the buildings, and cause severe damage to the other buildings, also the strong winds would help create an incredible storm surge-large parts of long island would be flooded out, and due to the large population, many people could die

there was an article that NYC is prepared for hurricanes, and they could evacuate about a million people a day, but if a major hurricane was coming up north, it would not move slowly-it could move at 30,40, even 50mph giving little warning, and it would be impossible to evacuate the city, the bridges would close, people would be stuck

[terstorm1012]

Two things:

1. I think the sky scrapers would survive intact--without their glass windows. Older buildings tend to be over-engineered...wide bases and all. I doubt highly we'd see the Empire State Building fall over. Storm surge, like in New Orleans, would be the big destroyer in this case.

2. I think NYC city government is prepared---it's the people who don't believe it. In this part of the country we just don't get hurricanes often. Most of our experience is with Nor'easters. NYC city government needs to educate New Yorkers about the threat they face.

[Derek Ortt]

I heard that the Emipre State building swayed 4 inches in 1938 from the sideswipe from the 38 hurricane. A sway of 12 inches could result in collapse. That structure is one I am more concerned about of a collapse than most of the others

[f5]

right now a gigantic terrorist attack is more likely.a NYC hit would affect the entire world.Wall Street,Nasdaq,SP 500 would be shut down for weeks maybe months

[tornadochaser86]

yup but is it really possible?

[terstorm1012]

Don...did you take into account the inland flooding that would occur in the Delaware and Susquehanna River basins? Your hypothetical hurricane will probably destroy/damage a lot more cities other than New York City.

Agnes in 1972 was a TS but took a similar track, I don't think Harrisburg has ever recovered.

[conestogo_flood]

Oh my gosh, New England's a deathtrap .