Extratropical Irene Advisories
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Brent
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST WED AUG 10 2005
...IRENE REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STATUS...
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 59.8 WEST OR ABOUT
680 MILES...1095 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH
...20 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
...75 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...23.5 N... 59.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.
FORECASTER PASCH
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST WED AUG 10 2005
...IRENE REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STATUS...
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 59.8 WEST OR ABOUT
680 MILES...1095 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH
...20 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
...75 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...23.5 N... 59.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.
FORECASTER PASCH
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#neversummer
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38264
- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
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TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005
0300Z THU AUG 11 2005
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 59.8W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 50SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 59.8W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 59.2W
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.2N 61.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 25.4N 63.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.3N 65.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 27.2N 67.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 28.5N 70.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 30.5N 72.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 32.5N 75.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 59.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z
FORECASTER PASCH
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005
0300Z THU AUG 11 2005
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 59.8W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 50SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 59.8W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 59.2W
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.2N 61.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 25.4N 63.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.3N 65.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 27.2N 67.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 28.5N 70.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 30.5N 72.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 32.5N 75.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 59.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z
FORECASTER PASCH
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#neversummer
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38264
- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
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TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2005
IRENE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
EVENING. A CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM
WRAPS NEARLY HALFWAY AROUND THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS 35 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA. THIS
SUPPORTS RE-UPGRADING THE CYCLONE TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS. THE
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED EXCEPT TO THE
SOUTH WHERE IT IS BEING IMPEDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ANALYSES FROM THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS SHOW THAT THE NORTHERLY MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW THAT HAD BEEN DISRUPTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
ABATING AND THAT IRENE IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF DECREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AS IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. AS USUAL...THE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY
TIME FRAME HAVE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY OWING TO A LACK OF SKILL
IN LONGER-RANGE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY PREDICTION.
RECENT CENTER FIXES FROM BOTH GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY
ARE SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. HOWEVER...FOR
CONTINUITY'S SAKE...I HAVE ADJUSTED THE CURRENT MOTION ONLY
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...290/11. THE MAIN STEERING FEATURE THAT
CONCERNS US IS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
FORECASTING TO BUILD NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC
STATES IN 3 TO 5 DAYS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER THIS
RIDGE WILL DRIVE IRENE TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. IT IS STILL
POSSIBLE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE MORE
NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...AS SUGGESTED BY SOME OF
THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE U.K. MET. OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL AND
THE LATEST GFDL RUN...OR MOVE MORE WESTWARD AND REACH THE COAST AS
SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND GFDN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS STILL
WELL TO THE LEFT OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NHC
FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO VERY SIMILAR TO THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
TRACK.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/0300Z 23.5N 59.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 24.2N 61.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 25.4N 63.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 26.3N 65.7W 50 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 27.2N 67.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 14/0000Z 28.5N 70.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 15/0000Z 30.5N 72.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 16/0000Z 32.5N 75.0W 70 KT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2005
IRENE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
EVENING. A CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM
WRAPS NEARLY HALFWAY AROUND THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS 35 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA. THIS
SUPPORTS RE-UPGRADING THE CYCLONE TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS. THE
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED EXCEPT TO THE
SOUTH WHERE IT IS BEING IMPEDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ANALYSES FROM THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS SHOW THAT THE NORTHERLY MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW THAT HAD BEEN DISRUPTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
ABATING AND THAT IRENE IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF DECREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AS IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. AS USUAL...THE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY
TIME FRAME HAVE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY OWING TO A LACK OF SKILL
IN LONGER-RANGE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY PREDICTION.
RECENT CENTER FIXES FROM BOTH GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY
ARE SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. HOWEVER...FOR
CONTINUITY'S SAKE...I HAVE ADJUSTED THE CURRENT MOTION ONLY
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...290/11. THE MAIN STEERING FEATURE THAT
CONCERNS US IS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
FORECASTING TO BUILD NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC
STATES IN 3 TO 5 DAYS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER THIS
RIDGE WILL DRIVE IRENE TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. IT IS STILL
POSSIBLE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE MORE
NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...AS SUGGESTED BY SOME OF
THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE U.K. MET. OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL AND
THE LATEST GFDL RUN...OR MOVE MORE WESTWARD AND REACH THE COAST AS
SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND GFDN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS STILL
WELL TO THE LEFT OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NHC
FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO VERY SIMILAR TO THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
TRACK.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/0300Z 23.5N 59.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 24.2N 61.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 25.4N 63.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 26.3N 65.7W 50 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 27.2N 67.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 14/0000Z 28.5N 70.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 15/0000Z 30.5N 72.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 16/0000Z 32.5N 75.0W 70 KT
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#neversummer
-
gkrangers
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST THU AUG 11 2005
...IRENE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 61.0 WEST OR ABOUT 605
MILES... 975 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH
...22 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT IRENE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN
ORGANIZATION...AND SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...24.2 N... 61.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST THU AUG 11 2005
...IRENE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 61.0 WEST OR ABOUT 605
MILES... 975 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH
...22 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT IRENE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN
ORGANIZATION...AND SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...24.2 N... 61.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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WTNT44 KNHC 110845
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2005
THE ORGANIZATION OF IRENE APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING...WITH A
LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
CYCLONE AND IN INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR MY ESTIMATED CENTER
POSITION. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN ALSO APPEARS STRONG.
HOWEVER...A GOOD LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL HARD TO FIND...WITH 06Z
FIXES FROM THE THREE AGENCIES SPREAD BY ABOUT 90 NMI...AND THE
CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE ELONGATED FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 35 KT AND THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT. SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AN INHIBITING FACTOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN FORECASTING A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL
MOTION IS ALSO UNCERTAIN...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE NEAR 295/12. 00Z
RAOB DATA AND GLOBAL ANALYSES SHOW A 500 MB SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS
MOVING EASTWARD JUST OFF THE CAROLINAS...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTER JUST EAST OF BERMUDA. AS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT...HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND
IRENE'S TRACK COULD TAKE A MORE WESTWARD BEND IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MID-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY DAYS 4
AND 5...AND THIS FLOW COULD TURN IRENE NORTHWARD BEFORE IT REACHES
THE COAST. THIS IS THE SOLUTION FAVORED BY THE UKMET...GFDL...AND
NOGAPS MODELS. EVEN THE BAM MODELS...WHICH EARLIER HAD BEEN WELL
TO THE LEFT OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...NOW FAVOR A RECURVING TRACK
OFFSHORE. THE GFS...ALTHOUGH IT ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATES
IRENE...KEEPS ITS REMNANTS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...AND THE GFDN ALSO
TAKES THE CYCLONE INLAND. THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE
4 AND 5 DAY POINTS AND IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO TELL WHAT KIND OF
THREAT IRENE COULD POSE FOR THE UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED JUST A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...BUT IS STILL WELL TO THE LEFT OF MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/0900Z 24.2N 61.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z 24.9N 62.8W 40 KT
24HR VT 12/0600Z 26.0N 64.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 12/1800Z 27.0N 66.7W 50 KT
48HR VT 13/0600Z 27.9N 68.3W 55 KT
72HR VT 14/0600Z 29.5N 71.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 15/0600Z 31.5N 73.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 16/0600Z 34.0N 75.0W 70 KT
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2005
THE ORGANIZATION OF IRENE APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING...WITH A
LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
CYCLONE AND IN INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR MY ESTIMATED CENTER
POSITION. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN ALSO APPEARS STRONG.
HOWEVER...A GOOD LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL HARD TO FIND...WITH 06Z
FIXES FROM THE THREE AGENCIES SPREAD BY ABOUT 90 NMI...AND THE
CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE ELONGATED FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 35 KT AND THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT. SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AN INHIBITING FACTOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN FORECASTING A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL
MOTION IS ALSO UNCERTAIN...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE NEAR 295/12. 00Z
RAOB DATA AND GLOBAL ANALYSES SHOW A 500 MB SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS
MOVING EASTWARD JUST OFF THE CAROLINAS...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTER JUST EAST OF BERMUDA. AS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT...HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND
IRENE'S TRACK COULD TAKE A MORE WESTWARD BEND IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MID-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY DAYS 4
AND 5...AND THIS FLOW COULD TURN IRENE NORTHWARD BEFORE IT REACHES
THE COAST. THIS IS THE SOLUTION FAVORED BY THE UKMET...GFDL...AND
NOGAPS MODELS. EVEN THE BAM MODELS...WHICH EARLIER HAD BEEN WELL
TO THE LEFT OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...NOW FAVOR A RECURVING TRACK
OFFSHORE. THE GFS...ALTHOUGH IT ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATES
IRENE...KEEPS ITS REMNANTS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...AND THE GFDN ALSO
TAKES THE CYCLONE INLAND. THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE
4 AND 5 DAY POINTS AND IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO TELL WHAT KIND OF
THREAT IRENE COULD POSE FOR THE UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED JUST A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...BUT IS STILL WELL TO THE LEFT OF MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/0900Z 24.2N 61.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z 24.9N 62.8W 40 KT
24HR VT 12/0600Z 26.0N 64.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 12/1800Z 27.0N 66.7W 50 KT
48HR VT 13/0600Z 27.9N 68.3W 55 KT
72HR VT 14/0600Z 29.5N 71.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 15/0600Z 31.5N 73.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 16/0600Z 34.0N 75.0W 70 KT
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WTNT24 KNHC 110845
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005
0900Z THU AUG 11 2005
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 61.0W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 50SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 61.0W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 60.4W
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.9N 62.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 26.0N 64.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 27.0N 66.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 27.9N 68.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 29.5N 71.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 31.5N 73.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 34.0N 75.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 61.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005
0900Z THU AUG 11 2005
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 61.0W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 50SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 61.0W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 60.4W
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.9N 62.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 26.0N 64.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 27.0N 66.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 27.9N 68.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 29.5N 71.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 31.5N 73.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 34.0N 75.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 61.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Brent
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TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005
1500Z THU AUG 11 2005
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 62.6W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 200SE 50SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 62.6W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 62.0W
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 26.0N 64.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.2N 66.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 28.0N 68.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 28.6N 69.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 30.4N 72.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 32.5N 74.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 35.0N 75.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 62.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z
FORECASTER STEWART
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005
1500Z THU AUG 11 2005
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 62.6W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 200SE 50SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 62.6W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 62.0W
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 26.0N 64.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.2N 66.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 28.0N 68.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 28.6N 69.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 30.4N 72.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 32.5N 74.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 35.0N 75.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 62.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
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TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005
1500Z THU AUG 11 2005
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 62.6W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 200SE 50SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 62.6W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 62.0W
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 26.0N 64.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.2N 66.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 28.0N 68.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 28.6N 69.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 30.4N 72.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 32.5N 74.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 35.0N 75.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005
1500Z THU AUG 11 2005
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 62.6W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 200SE 50SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 62.6W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 62.0W
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 26.0N 64.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.2N 66.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 28.0N 68.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 28.6N 69.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 30.4N 72.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 32.5N 74.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 35.0N 75.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
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Brent
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST THU AUG 11 2005
...IRENE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT STRENGTHENS...
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST OR ABOUT
515 MILES... 830 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1040
MILES...1670 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...25.1 N... 62.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM AST.
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST THU AUG 11 2005
...IRENE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT STRENGTHENS...
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST OR ABOUT
515 MILES... 830 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1040
MILES...1670 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...25.1 N... 62.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM AST.
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
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621
WTNT44 KNHC 111452
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2005
DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE WHILE BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED...EVEN THOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN IS ELONGATED NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. LOW CLOUD LINES FEEDING INTO THE CYCLONE ALSO SUGGEST
THAT THE SURFACE CENTER MAY BE BROAD AND ELONGATED IN THE SAME
DIRECTION. DETERMINING THE CENTER LOCATION WAS WEIGHTED HEAVILY
TOWARD A TIGHT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED IN 11/1052Z SSMI
MICROWAVE DATA. THE INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON
SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND RECENT ODT
ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45 KT.
WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
CENTER...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/15.
IRENE APPEARS TO BE MOVING FASTER THAN 15 KT...BUT SOME OF THAT
APPARENT MOTION MAY BE DUE TO RE-ORGANIZATION OF THE CENTER WITHIN
THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE PATTERN
HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
WITH A HIGH CENTER LOCATED NEAR BERMUDA AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE BAHAMAS. AS IRENE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
INTO THE RIDGE...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED.
THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO
THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THAT IS WHERE THE AGREEMENT ENDS. BY 72
HOURS...THE MODELS DIVERGE QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE UKMET AND
NOGAPS RECURVING IRENE THROUGH THE RIDGE ALONG 70W...WHILE THE GFDL
AND GFDN ARE FARTHER WEST AND BRING IRENE VERY NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST BY 120 HOURS. THE GFS...HOWEVER...QUICKLY DISSIPATES
IRENE AS IT HAS IN THE PAST 48 HOURS OF MODEL RUNS...AND KEEPS THE
RIDGE INTACT AND MOVES THE REMNANTS WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARD FLORIDA
AND THE BAHAMAS. THE LATTER SOLUTION WAS DISCOUNTED GIVEN IRENE'S
CURRENT WELL ORGANIZED AND IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST IS GRADUALLY
LIFTING OUT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE BERMUDA
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH AND WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS IN
THE SHORT TERM...WHICH SHOULD KEEP IRENE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GFDL AND GFDN
SOLUTIONS...AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND
THE LEFT SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...GIVEN THAT THE UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS RATHER WEAK AND
UNIMPRESSIVE AND MAY NOT WEAKEN THE RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST AS MUCH AS THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST.
SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 28.5C AND 29C...AND VERTICAL
SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS
TO REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH 120 HOURS. SO THE ONLY INHIBITING
FACTOR AGAINST SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS THE VERY DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR THAT IRENE WILL BE NAVIGATING THROUGH. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 72 HOURS
...AND THEN IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AFTER THAT WHEN THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO DROP TO ABOUT 5 KT WHILE THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHWARD NEAR THE WARMER GULFSTREAM.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/1500Z 25.1N 62.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 26.0N 64.4W 55 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 27.2N 66.4W 60 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 28.0N 68.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 13/1200Z 28.6N 69.5W 70 KT
72HR VT 14/1200Z 30.4N 72.3W 75 KT
96HR VT 15/1200Z 32.5N 74.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 16/1200Z 35.0N 75.0W 75 KT
WTNT44 KNHC 111452
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2005
DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE WHILE BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED...EVEN THOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN IS ELONGATED NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. LOW CLOUD LINES FEEDING INTO THE CYCLONE ALSO SUGGEST
THAT THE SURFACE CENTER MAY BE BROAD AND ELONGATED IN THE SAME
DIRECTION. DETERMINING THE CENTER LOCATION WAS WEIGHTED HEAVILY
TOWARD A TIGHT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED IN 11/1052Z SSMI
MICROWAVE DATA. THE INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON
SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND RECENT ODT
ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45 KT.
WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
CENTER...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/15.
IRENE APPEARS TO BE MOVING FASTER THAN 15 KT...BUT SOME OF THAT
APPARENT MOTION MAY BE DUE TO RE-ORGANIZATION OF THE CENTER WITHIN
THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE PATTERN
HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
WITH A HIGH CENTER LOCATED NEAR BERMUDA AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE BAHAMAS. AS IRENE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
INTO THE RIDGE...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED.
THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO
THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THAT IS WHERE THE AGREEMENT ENDS. BY 72
HOURS...THE MODELS DIVERGE QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE UKMET AND
NOGAPS RECURVING IRENE THROUGH THE RIDGE ALONG 70W...WHILE THE GFDL
AND GFDN ARE FARTHER WEST AND BRING IRENE VERY NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST BY 120 HOURS. THE GFS...HOWEVER...QUICKLY DISSIPATES
IRENE AS IT HAS IN THE PAST 48 HOURS OF MODEL RUNS...AND KEEPS THE
RIDGE INTACT AND MOVES THE REMNANTS WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARD FLORIDA
AND THE BAHAMAS. THE LATTER SOLUTION WAS DISCOUNTED GIVEN IRENE'S
CURRENT WELL ORGANIZED AND IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST IS GRADUALLY
LIFTING OUT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE BERMUDA
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH AND WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS IN
THE SHORT TERM...WHICH SHOULD KEEP IRENE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GFDL AND GFDN
SOLUTIONS...AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND
THE LEFT SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...GIVEN THAT THE UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS RATHER WEAK AND
UNIMPRESSIVE AND MAY NOT WEAKEN THE RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST AS MUCH AS THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST.
SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 28.5C AND 29C...AND VERTICAL
SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS
TO REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH 120 HOURS. SO THE ONLY INHIBITING
FACTOR AGAINST SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS THE VERY DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR THAT IRENE WILL BE NAVIGATING THROUGH. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 72 HOURS
...AND THEN IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AFTER THAT WHEN THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO DROP TO ABOUT 5 KT WHILE THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHWARD NEAR THE WARMER GULFSTREAM.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/1500Z 25.1N 62.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 26.0N 64.4W 55 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 27.2N 66.4W 60 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 28.0N 68.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 13/1200Z 28.6N 69.5W 70 KT
72HR VT 14/1200Z 30.4N 72.3W 75 KT
96HR VT 15/1200Z 32.5N 74.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 16/1200Z 35.0N 75.0W 75 KT
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Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on August 11, 2005
...Irene continuing to gradually get better organized...
at 5 PM AST...2100z...the center of tropical storm Irene was located
near latitude 25.7 north... longitude 63.9 west or about 460
miles... 740 km... south of Bermuda and about 950 miles...1530
km...southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
Irene is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph...24 km/hr.
This general motion...with a gradual decrease in forward speed...
is expected to occur for the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph... 85 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
... 95 km from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb...29.53 inches.
Repeating the 5 PM AST position...25.7 N... 63.9 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 15 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 50 mph. Minimum central pressure...1000 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 11 PM AST.
Forecaster Stewart
$$
Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on August 11, 2005
...Irene continuing to gradually get better organized...
at 5 PM AST...2100z...the center of tropical storm Irene was located
near latitude 25.7 north... longitude 63.9 west or about 460
miles... 740 km... south of Bermuda and about 950 miles...1530
km...southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
Irene is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph...24 km/hr.
This general motion...with a gradual decrease in forward speed...
is expected to occur for the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph... 85 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
... 95 km from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb...29.53 inches.
Repeating the 5 PM AST position...25.7 N... 63.9 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 15 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 50 mph. Minimum central pressure...1000 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 11 PM AST.
Forecaster Stewart
$$
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