TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[wxman57]

That's strange. The time at the top and bottom of the image shows Aug 7 22:05 UTC.

Yeah, they try to trick you at that web site. They did update the web page at 22:05 UTC, but there was no new image to display so they used the old one. They do that all the time. Look for the image times at the bottom of each image in purple. But sometimes the pages can still be tricky, like the current page with an image time of 21:39 UTC but the page was updated at 18:12 UTC, so that's YESTERDAY'S 21:39 UTC image not today's, even though it's past 2139Z.

Well, time for a little Far Cry action...

[Seele]

That's strange. The time at the top and bottom of the image shows Aug 7 22:05 UTC.

Yeah, they try to trick you at that web site. They did update the web page at 22:05 UTC, but there was no new image to display so they used the old one. They do that all the time. Look for the image times at the bottom of each image in purple. But sometimes the pages can still be tricky, like the current page with an image time of 21:39 UTC but the page was updated at 18:12 UTC, so that's YESTERDAY'S 21:39 UTC image not today's, even though it's past 2139Z.

Well, time for a little Far Cry action...

DOH! Thanks.

[Astro_man92]

That's strange. The time at the top and bottom of the image shows Aug 7 22:05 UTC.

Yeah, they try to trick you at that web site. They did update the web page at 22:05 UTC, but there was no new image to display so they used the old one. They do that all the time. Look for the image times at the bottom of each image in purple. But sometimes the pages can still be tricky, like the current page with an image time of 21:39 UTC but the page was updated at 18:12 UTC, so that's YESTERDAY'S 21:39 UTC image not today's, even though it's past 2139Z.

Well, time for a little Far Cry action...

DOH! Thanks.

I don't know what happened but lol

[senorpepr]

I wasn't quite using that website, but, by golly, you're right. It is old as well. The time stamp on the product I was looking at said "Aug 7 21:04 UTC", but I didn't notice that the center wasn't closer to 46W rather than 44W. Good catch.

Yeah, pretty good for a weekend forecaster, huh? (have we beaten this into the ground enough?)

LOL... yup... not too shabby at all. Actually, I should have known better, but I've been focusing my "weather eye" on other parts of the world.

BTW, thanks for posting the model graphic from CSU. I've often used the NLMOC's graphic whenever I'm at work, but that graphic is pretty handy too.

[superfly]

Don't look now, but Irene is firing up convection just west of the LLC.

[clfenwi]

If it weren't for that sheared MLC messing up the picture, Irene might actually have a decent appearance on satellite right now. Decent convection firing up on the west side of the LLC and there's also some firing up along the 'comma' now.

Obviously, Irene was playing possum to lure the NHC forecaster into suggesting that her death may be imminent.

Of course, the storm has played with me as well. Gotta love one that can make you think "Well, it's either dead... or it's going to 50 knots in 48-72 hours! One of the two!"

[gkrangers]

Comma eh? Is it gonna drop 2 feet of snow on Bermuda?

[clfenwi]

Comma eh? Is it gonna drop 2 feet of snow on Bermuda?

Remember, climatology is out the window this season!

[elysium]

The LLC to the northwest is holding on very well. Doesn't figure to dissipate. High pressure building over the top of both. Movement more to the west noted. Very interesting situation unfolding.

[mahicks]

By the way, if you want to see the BEST model guidance page on the net (just like I have at work, almost), then take a look at what Colorado State is doing.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

Here's a sample image from 18Z with Most of the models available. By the way, you reall shouldn't use the BAM models north of the deep tropics (20N).

<img src="http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png">

OMG!!!!!

I wish I had an imoticon of the smiley bowing down...I'm NOT WORTHY...

This is THE BEST Model Plot site I've EVER SEEN!!!!!!!! A MUST Bookmark!!!
Thank YOU!!!!

[WindRunner]

Interesting to note that all models (including GFDL) show strengthening 36-48hr interval.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

For the first time in her life convection is starting to form right over the LLC. Interesting if it keeps up.

[clfenwi]

Interesting to note that all models (including GFDL) show strengthening 36-48hr interval.

GFDL has been killing off the storm with 48 hours for the past two runs:

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/05080717

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/05080723

[Ivanhater]

well it hard to tell with no visible, but i think its moving west right now, of course when you smooth it all out the overall motion has been wnw for most of her life

[cycloneye]

07/2345 UTC 21.1N 47.2W T1.5/2.0 IRENE -- Atlantic Ocean


Still the SSD Dvorak T Numbers are below the threshold of a tropical storm as 2.5 is =35 kts.

[WeatherEmperor]

wow that model map is absolutely awsome!

<RICKY>

[Derek Ortt]

use the hi res QS. it has 12.5km resolution, far better than the 25 you showed there

as for the models that colostate uses, looks like those come directly from the ATCF file, which is what I use for model guidance

[clfenwi]

WHXX01 KWBC 080014
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM IRENE (AL092005) ON 20050808 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050808 0000 050808 1200 050809 0000 050809 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.3N 47.1W 21.5N 48.2W 21.9N 49.3W 22.4N 50.5W
BAMM 21.3N 47.1W 21.6N 48.6W 22.0N 50.0W 22.2N 51.3W
A98E 21.3N 47.1W 22.2N 48.9W 23.1N 50.3W 24.4N 51.4W
LBAR 21.3N 47.1W 22.0N 48.7W 22.9N 50.3W 23.8N 51.8W
SHIP 35KTS 34KTS 35KTS 37KTS
DSHP 35KTS 34KTS 35KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050810 0000 050811 0000 050812 0000 050813 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.0N 52.1W 24.9N 56.1W 27.1N 60.3W 28.8N 62.5W
BAMM 22.5N 52.9W 24.2N 57.1W 26.3N 61.2W 27.8N 63.3W
A98E 25.6N 52.4W 28.8N 54.4W 31.6N 55.4W 32.2N 51.9W
LBAR 24.9N 53.3W 28.4N 55.6W 31.7N 55.2W 31.9N 52.0W
SHIP 40KTS 47KTS 51KTS 52KTS
DSHP 40KTS 47KTS 51KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.3N LONCUR = 47.1W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 20.2N LONM12 = 45.0W DIRM12 = 303DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 19.3N LONM24 = 43.5W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[deltadog03]

ok, is the center not under that burst of storms to the west of the main storms??

[elysium]

It's underneath the ridge. Harvey is rapidly evacuating. Looks west from here.