Epsilon,Final Comments,Sat Pics

[brunota2003]

Wow, never seen this in a discussion before:

These winds in combination with even
colder sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should
result in weakening and extratropical transition. However...we have
been expecting such transition but there are no indications of this
happening yet.

[HURAKAN]

Sorry, I couldn't stop myself!!!!!

[krysof]

People think hurricanes can't sustain themselves in 21-22 Sst's but Vince and Epsilon have proven us wrong. They may have the extra energy because how insane this season has been. Its just another way of mother nature to surprise us.

[cjrciadt]

People think hurricanes can't sustain themselves in 21-22 Sst's but Vince and Epsilon have proven us wrong. They may have the extra energy because how insane this season has been. Its just another way of mother nature to surprise us.

I use to think 26c was the limit, boy that was way wrong.

[cjrciadt]

Sorry, I couldn't stop myself!!!!

That has to be one of your best of this year!!!

[HURAKAN]

People think hurricanes can't sustain themselves in 21-22 Sst's but Vince and Epsilon have proven us wrong. They may have the extra energy because how insane this season has been. Its just another way of mother nature to surprise us.

That's true. Epsilon is around the 22 degrees Celsius (71.6 F)isotherm.

[krysof]

People think hurricanes can't sustain themselves in 21-22 Sst's but Vince and Epsilon have proven us wrong. They may have the extra energy because how insane this season has been. Its just another way of mother nature to surprise us.

That's true. Epsilon is around the 22 degrees Celsius (71.6 F)isotherm.

so if a hurricane can live in those waters, then in the middle of summer when New Jersey has 22-24 Sst's, a hurricane can hit us instead of weaken

[HURAKAN]

so if a hurricane can live in those waters, then in the middle of summer when New Jersey has 22-24 Sst's, a hurricane can hit us instead of weaken

It's possible, but fortunately, not all hurricanes respond the same way to changes in their environment. Also, Epsilon's extratropical history could be helping the hurricane to sustain itself in cooler temperatures.

[krysof]

so if a hurricane can live in those waters, then in the middle of summer when New Jersey has 22-24 Sst's, a hurricane can hit us instead of weaken

It's possible, but fortunately, not all hurricanes respond the same way to changes in their environment. Also, Epsilon's extratropical history could be helping the hurricane to sustain itself in cooler temperatures.

If a major hurricane is possible in NYC, a hurricane here is quite possible
But Epsilon is different just like Vince. It's like the crazy season itself is helping Epsilon

[Jim Hughes]

I believe that the sun can control alot of weather on earth. In maybe the sun spots can have power over the hurricanes. It is weird in I agree it could very will be the sun. But this is new in people are just trying to fall back on old stuff.

I can not emphatically say that space weather has effected Epsilon but I also believe that you can not say that it has not. So my objective is to try and talk about what I have observed over the years and to try and show/teach people this methodology.

I am trying to make it as simple as possible by giving out URL's to access solar wind and particle readings. I will continue to point things out when I have time but I also feel that if you really think that I might be on to something then you may want to take the next step. I would suggest that you read more about space weather. This would help you educate yourself more about the subject matter.

This winter may be a good time to do this while the tropics are quiet.


Jim

[cycloneye]

CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM EPSILON 29L

INITIAL TIME 12Z DEC 3

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 34.5 45.0 90./ 8.9
6 34.3 43.8 101./10.5
12 33.9 42.4 104./11.6
18 33.8 40.9 96./12.5
24 33.8 39.5 89./11.6
30 33.9 38.3 87./ 9.8
36 33.8 37.3 92./ 8.3
42 33.6 36.5 108./ 7.0
48 33.4 35.6 98./ 8.3
54 33.4 34.6 92./ 8.1
60 33.4 33.7 88./ 7.8
66 33.6 32.9 79./ 6.8
72 33.5 32.3 101./ 4.4
78 32.8 32.0 149./ 7.3
84 32.0 31.5 152./ 9.4
90 31.1 31.6 186./ 8.5
96 30.2 32.2 213./10.1
102 29.4 33.4 236./13.2
108 28.6 34.8 240./14.7
114 28.0 36.1 245./13.3
120 27.3 37.4 243./12.9
126 26.7 38.5 241./11.9


12z GFDL.Folks look at the track of this model as it sinks south after 96 hours.But by that time it is expected to weaken but you never know as Avila said it has been tenasious.

[cycloneye]

387

WTNT80 EGRR 031655



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 03.12.2005





HURRICANE EPSILON ANALYSED POSITION : 34.9N 45.0W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292005



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 03.12.2005 34.9N 45.0W INTENSE

00UTC 04.12.2005 35.6N 43.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 04.12.2005 36.5N 41.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 05.12.2005 37.0N 38.1W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 05.12.2005 37.2N 35.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 06.12.2005 37.4N 33.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 06.12.2005 35.4N 31.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 07.12.2005 31.4N 32.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 07.12.2005 28.3N 33.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 08.12.2005 25.6N 35.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 08.12.2005 23.2N 37.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 09.12.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



12z UKMET also shows the southward track and this model keeps it as a formidable cyclone thru 96 hours.

[curtadams]

Epsilon isn't completely unprecedented. Tropical-style cyclones are occaisionally observed over colder waters. Fundamentally a tropical cyclone is a heat exchanger between warm surface and cold high-altitude air. If the high-altitude air is colder that can make up for chillier water, and I'll bet high-altitude air is pretty darn cold in December over the temperate Atlantic.

Given that the heat potential should be generally favorable out of the tropics, the puzzle is probably more of why such things are rare. Dr. Grey has suggested that the key element in tropical cyclones is moist mid-level air (permitting instability throughout the air column; dry air is generally fairly stable since it need a much higher temperature gradient to be unstable). Perhaps that's less common out of the tropics.

[cycloneye]

03/1745 UTC 34.4N 43.6W T4.5/4.5 EPSILON -- Atlantic Ocean


Epsilon according to this afternoons SSD dvorak sat estimates is a little more stronger.

Chart of intensity.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

[theworld]

I think Epsilon is making a bee-line for warmer water south, doesn't like the water temp it's approaching.

[HURAKAN]

TALKING ABOUT TENACITY, LOOK AT EPSILON THIS AFTERNOON. AMAZING!

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE EPSILON (AL292005) ON 20051203 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051203 1800 051204 0600 051204 1800 051205 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 34.5N 43.7W 34.8N 40.7W 35.4N 37.7W 36.3N 35.0W
BAMM 34.5N 43.7W 34.2N 41.4W 33.9N 38.7W 33.4N 36.0W
A98E 34.5N 43.7W 34.6N 41.5W 35.5N 38.9W 35.0N 36.3W
LBAR 34.5N 43.7W 34.9N 41.1W 35.2N 38.3W 35.4N 35.7W
SHIP 70KTS 65KTS 57KTS 49KTS
DSHP 70KTS 65KTS 57KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051205 1800 051206 1800 051207 1800 051208 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 37.2N 33.2W 36.0N 31.0W 33.1N 34.1W 31.9N 38.9W
BAMM 33.0N 33.8W 31.3N 31.9W 29.2N 36.5W 27.4N 43.2W
A98E 35.2N 34.1W 34.5N 31.2W 33.0N 32.1W 30.5N 35.7W
LBAR 35.5N 33.4W 34.2N 27.6W 32.8N 26.6W 30.0N 28.0W
SHIP 41KTS 26KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 41KTS 26KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 34.5N LONCUR = 43.7W DIRCUR = 90DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 34.5N LONM12 = 46.2W DIRM12 = 83DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 33.9N LONM24 = 47.9W
WNDCUR = 70KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 985MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 100NM


18:00z Models now increased the winds to 70kts.AMAZING!!!

[WindRunner]

Will it ever end??????????????

[lester]

Will it ever end??????????????

doesn't look like it

[brunota2003]

Will it ever end??????????????

Why would it do such a thing as that??? Thats to easy for the 2005 season...lol