98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[Stormavoider]

I haven't been following the EPAC. From what I have observed it seems Emilia's track has adjusted east. Do you all think Emilia's influence will bump 98L east?

[HurricaneHunter914]

The 2 AM Discussion might decide whether there is an LLC under the blow-up an whether or not this has becom a TC.

[tailgater]

Anyone think there is a possibility an LLC could form under the new blow up of convection?

YES the one near Baffin Bay will move father inland, this one looks like an MLC with some potential.

[Mike Doran]

I see.

I look mostly for electrics.

What happens is models that get details of baratropics are good for 3-5 days BUT fail on intensity and even formations by missing electrics. I tend to defer to short term forecasts to those who study the synoptics. But in the absense of well defined circulations when there is 20k strikes/ hour like this, it's another story.

[southerngale]

Lets hope that this just moves on North and gets out of here, hopefully bringing rains to the west and north in areas that need it..

What bothers me and after taking AFM's and 57's ideas in account, is how this system is acting tonight.

The history of this disturbance has been to lose the majority of its convection from early evening and throughout the night, and flaring up again towards the morning.

Tonight it has maintained the convection, and in the latest images, there is a tail so to speak on the outflow extending all the way down to the southern BOC and into the EPAC.

I don't think the areas to the north and west that need the rain are going to see much, if anything. Local met, (greg_kfdm_tv on here) said something to that effect. He also said earlier this evening that it was possible it could become a TD, but that it didn't really make any difference one way or the other, we can expect tons of rain. The ground is already so saturated here, and it rained almost all day today (some of it light) with a short break tonight, and now it's raining again. I've been watching it pretty much develop right on top of us the last hour or so. He also said what the other mets have been saying...the rains should really pick up overnight and into daybreak.
He said the rain should be around for a few days, like the NHC said in the latest TWO, but the NWS has our chances lower for Thursday (down to 40%). I don't know if the NWS has it moving out too fast, or the others too slow, but I sure wish I had a crystal ball. I've got some rather important things I have to plan for the next few days and this is really a bad time for this.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Right that big are of convection should be the area to watch for a possible LLC, once that one moves inland then we can watch out for that new area. So far 98L has persisted for a very long time without being named, I hope its persistence will not go in vain. Go 98L!

[Stormcenter]

Anyone think there is a possibility an LLC could form under the new blow up of convection?

Interesting possibility.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[HouTXmetro]

Anyone think there is a possibility an LLC could form under the new blow up of convection?

YES the one near Baffin Bay will move father inland, this one looks like an MLC with some potential.

if it were to form that far out we might have some problems

[HurricaneHunter914]

Anyone think there is a possibility an LLC could form under the new blow up of convection?

YES the one near Baffin Bay will move father inland, this one looks like an MLC with some potential.

if it were to form that far out we might have some problems

If it formed out there, then a possible strong TS - Hurricane (but unlikey) wouldn't be impossible.

[Stratosphere747]

Lets hope that this just moves on North and gets out of here, hopefully bringing rains to the west and north in areas that need it..

What bothers me and after taking AFM's and 57's ideas in account, is how this system is acting tonight.

The history of this disturbance has been to lose the majority of its convection from early evening and throughout the night, and flaring up again towards the morning.

Tonight it has maintained the convection, and in the latest images, there is a tail so to speak on the outflow extending all the way down to the southern BOC and into the EPAC.

I don't think the areas to the north and west that need the rain are going to see much, if anything. Local met, (greg_kfdm_tv on here) said something to that effect. He also said earlier this evening that it was possible it could become a TD, but that it didn't really make any difference one way or the other, we can expect tons of rain. The ground is already so saturated here, and it rained almost all day today (some of it light) with a short break tonight, and now it's raining again. I've been watching it pretty much develop right on top of us the last hour or so. He also said what the other mets have been saying...the rains should really pick up overnight and into daybreak.
He said the rain should be around for a few days, like the NHC said in the latest TWO, but the NWS has our chances lower for Thursday (down to 40%). I don't know if the NWS has it moving out too fast, or the others too slow, but I sure wish I had a crystal ball. I've got some rather important things I have to plan for the next few days and this is really a bad time for this.

Kelly,

Trying to make a hopeful *wish cast*

Austin/San Antonio/Dallas sure could use some rain...

I know we could do without....

If anything I don't want to see the possibilities expressed by 57 and AFM...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It just sounds like theres a "t" in the name of Chris. I will try to say it right.

[Stratosphere747]

In regards to the "secondary" blob.

There is a buoy basically smack dab in the middle of it. Ob's as of an hour ago have the pressure rising....

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42020

Still need to look near Baffin Bay....

[HurricaneHunter914]

That's what I said earlier, that we need to wacth the Baffin Bay blob first then we can wacth this blob. Currently the Baffin Blob has stalled over a low shear enviorment which might give it some time to develop into a weak TS. Tropical Development is still likely as long as this stays offshore.

[tailgater]

In regards to the "secondary" blob.

There is a buoy basically smack dab in the middle of it. Ob's as of an hour ago have the pressure rising....

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42020

Still need to look near Baffin Bay....

Not really it's well NW of "secondary Blob" but if you look at radar the T-storms are moving from S to N though this area so development isn't likely anytime soon here either. Baffin Bay Low moving N or NNE now over Corpus Chirsti.

[curtadams]

The MLC is over Corpus Christi REALLY obvious. I assume that wierdly shaped string of convection is the updraft getting blown around by shear. There's nothing at the ground- everybody is reporting E or SEly winds. I think we can write off substantial further development with the MLC inland and moving north.

[Stormcenter]

Looks like both blobs are now consolidating. I still see very little movement.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[CrazyC83]

Doubt it HouTx...

Maybe under the bigger area of convection, being it is close to Baffin Bay..

Still amazed that this area has hardly moved in the last 3/4 hours. Thank goodness this area was not onshore.

That just means some fish colony is facing their Allison...

[Yankeegirl]

Yeah, but the longer it takes to move again the more possibility it has to maybe develop into something.... Esp if its not over land...

[Starburst]

From 2:05a.m. discussion

...Special feature...
A 1009 mb surface low pressure center is just inland over south
Texas near 27.5n 97.5w moving northward about 10 kt. This
system is generating a large area of showers...thunderstorms and
strong gusty winds in squalls over parts of the western Gulf of
Mexico and the adjacent coastal areas. Scattered moderate
convection exists from 25n-29n between 90w-98w. A few buoys
offshore indicate winds near 25 kt..especially in convection.
Since the surface low center is over land...tropical cyclone
development is unlikely at this time. However...if the center
emerges or reforms offshore a tropical depression could develop.
Regardless if that occurs...locally heavy rainfall will continue
to occur over portions of extreme northeastern Mexico...southern
Texas...and southern Louisiana during the next couple of days.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Looks like another possible are for LLC formation might be farther away from the TX shore. Any thoughts?