TS Ernesto #9 Sat pics, models,analysis thread

[Stormcenter]

Back and forth we go. Those who say the shear is retreating and those who say it's not.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

GFDL turning Ernesto too soon like it always does. The BR/NO afd says "the weak frontal boundary looks to stall just north of our forecast area. "Track depends on strength of ridge over eastern gulf and upper trough moving into eastern US." Deciding factor will be if ridge holds strong enough to deflect storm NW or if a weakness develops allowing a more northerly turn." Does not sound like they are buying into such a sharp NE turn as the front and weakness will not be that strong. This is setting up to me as revenge of Lili 2002. Except this time no falling apart at the coast. Track is almost identical.

[THead]

12Z model plots here, minus the BAMs and climo models. Note the CONU (very good consensus model) in dark blue indicates a NNE turn toward Mobile bay at the end.

Yikes, pretty good consensus that Jamaica is going to get whatever this storm has to offer. On the other hand, maybe jamaica's mountains will tear him up, benefiting everyone else in the future path. I really do not like the way everything is hooking ernesto N and NE at the end.

[Stormcenter]

People, at this point I would not continue to expect (or hope) that shear is going to be the demise of Ernie. In fact, I'd be more concerned that the shear could potentially aid Ernie down the road by helping to vent the storm.

Why not, it really does not make a difference. Ernesto will either be just another named tropical system on go down in history as another Katrina or Rita. The point is if people think it's being sheared well then let them think or hope for that. There is no denying it is "currently" encountering shear.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-vis.html

[Mac]

HUH???

[Windtalker1]

12Z model plots here, minus the BAMs and climo models. Note the CONU (very good consensus model) in dark blue indicates a NNE turn toward Mobile bay at the end.

Looks like the models are anticipating a strong storm that will turn poleward, just where this turn occurs is up in the air. I think if Ernie passes to the North of Jamaica, then even Florida's west coast has to prepare.

[Portastorm]

GFDL turning Ernesto too soon like it always does. The BR/NO afd says "the weak frontal boundary looks to stall just north of our forecast area. "Track depends on strength of ridge over eastern gulf and upper trough moving into eastern US." Deciding factor will be if ridge holds strong enough to deflect storm NW or if a weakness develops allowing a more northerly turn." Does not sound like they are buying into such a sharp NE turn as the front and weakness will not be that strong. This is setting up to me as revenge of Lili 2002. Except this time no falling apart at the coast. Track is almost identical.

Indeed ... I just checked that Lili track in 02 and you're absolutely right ... if it were to verify, you'd have an almost identical track!

[cajungal]

12:00z Models Graphic.

The NHC gives the worse possible track for us. And it I usually always agree with the NHC track. They may not be perfect, but pretty accurate. It basically shows it making a beeline for the Morgan City-Houma area. But, like I said earlier, I am nervous, but not panicking until 48 hours out. My dad will probably be evacuated from the rig when it enters the gulf. (He works right off the mouth of the MS river) He works 7/7 and was not supposed to come home until Wed. This will be awful no matter where it hits. Upper TX/SW LA devesated by Rita. Everything east of that devestated by Katrina. You just can't win.

[tgenius]

12Z model plots here, minus the BAMs and climo models. Note the CONU (very good consensus model) in dark blue indicates a NNE turn toward Mobile bay at the end.

Looks like the models are anticipating a strong storm that will turn poleward, just where this turn occurs is up in the air. I think if Ernie passes to the North of Jamaica, then even Florida's west coast has to prepare.

on wv loop it looks to be a wee bit N of the forecasted pts

[wxman57]

WXMAN57:

I should know the answer to this, but what's the source for that plot? I really like the look of it.

We developed a graphical program in-house to plot it. I can overlay anything, from our clients to roads, rivers, airports, counties, etc.

[tailgater]

Yes it is sheared, BUT is it BADLY SHEARED? Like is it going to get whammed just like Emma said? I don't think so.

I'm no pro met and I didn't sleep at the Holiday Inn last nite, but I would say this storm is being pounded and I don't see the ULL to the west moving out as fast as predicted.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

[ronjon]

wxman57, how many more model cycles before NHC starts to adjust the day 4 & 5 track? The GFS, NOGAPs, ETA, and GFDL all seem to be trending toward the N-NE apparently following the weakness in the 500 mb ridge - I know once they do that the panic button will be activated along some portion of the gulf coast - but they have committed themselves to making 120 hr forecasts so I'm hopeful they make a 100% best science decision on the track.

[Air Force Met]

Now I just looked at the WV, and the system SEEMS to be a wee bit N of the forecast points, or am I not looking at the right part of the storm?

OK..first of all....NEVER use water vapor to find the low level center. Water vapor looks at the upper levels, not the lower ones.

Second, its one track now but if you take the 8am points from today...and impose them on the 11pm points from last night...it is actually south of the track by about 30 miles.

[Evil Jeremy]

why do they now issue cones for the intermidiatte advisories? http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... shtml?5day

[skysummit]

why do they now issue cones for the intermidiatte advisories? http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... shtml?5day

The cone has always been issued, they just don't change the forecast track at immediate advisories.

[miamicanes177]

they always update the cones with the new position on each advisory.

[HURAKAN]

why do they now issue cones for the intermidiatte advisories? http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... shtml?5day

TS WATCHES AND WARNINGS

[ronjon]

If the NHC does adjust the track to the GFDL or CONU model path, expect the west coast of FL to be included in the dreaded cone.

[wjs3]

WXMAN57:

I should know the answer to this, but what's the source for that plot? I really like the look of it.

We developed a graphical program in-house to plot it. I can overlay anything, from our clients to roads, rivers, airports, counties, etc.

Very nice. I had hoped it was publically available. Thanks!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

wxman, what are your opinions that the BR/NO forecast office seems to think the trough and weakness will be fairly weak and this storm will either be shunted towards the NW towards you or turn a little more northerly towards me. I just don't see the GFS coming to fruition with such a right hook when the NE gulf will still be influenced by the ridge albeit weak.