Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

Scorpion · #221 Postby **Scorpion** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 1:25 pm

The more models trending west the more problems there are.

WeatherTracker · #222 Postby **WeatherTracker** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 1:28 pm

Can someone please post the UKMET
?

Thank you

#223 Postby **cjrciadt** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 1:30 pm

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/
The NGPI is there in white bending due west at the end of it's run.
Yeah looks like a major Hurakan.

whereverwx · #224 Postby **whereverwx** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 1:31 pm

HURAKAN wrote:http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/data/tropical/284.jpg

Major hurricane, anyone?

I have to agree.

SWFLA_CANE · #225 Postby **SWFLA_CANE** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 1:31 pm

What influence, if any, will 95l have on the future track of Helen?

artist · #226 Postby **artist** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 1:31 pm

WeatherTracker · #227 Postby **WeatherTracker** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 1:42 pm

Stadium Effect Building!!!! :eek:

Bgator · #228 Postby **Bgator** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 1:45 pm

501
WHXX01 KWBC 171836
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE HELENE (AL082006) ON 20060917 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060917 1800 060918 0600 060918 1800 060919 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.9N 49.0W 22.0N 50.2W 22.7N 51.4W 23.1N 52.8W
BAMM 20.9N 49.0W 21.9N 50.5W 22.6N 52.0W 22.7N 53.6W
A98E 20.9N 49.0W 22.0N 50.3W 23.2N 51.8W 24.3N 53.6W
LBAR 20.9N 49.0W 21.8N 50.2W 22.8N 51.5W 23.2N 53.3W
SHIP 85KTS 90KTS 93KTS 94KTS
DSHP 85KTS 90KTS 93KTS 94KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060919 1800 060920 1800 060921 1800 060922 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.2N 54.4W 24.2N 58.0W 26.9N 61.2W 29.3N 63.8W
BAMM 22.6N 55.3W 22.6N 59.0W 24.1N 60.7W 26.9N 61.3W
A98E 24.7N 56.5W 29.2N 59.7W 33.8N 61.8W 38.8N 55.7W
LBAR 23.4N 55.5W 23.8N 59.8W 25.6N 62.2W 29.5N 65.1W
SHIP 93KTS 86KTS 80KTS 74KTS
DSHP 93KTS 86KTS 80KTS 74KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.9N LONCUR = 49.0W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 19.9N LONM12 = 47.9W DIRM12 = 307DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 19.0N LONM24 = 46.2W
WNDCUR = 85KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 75KT
CENPRS = 976MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 125NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 125NM

$$

MUCH more north than last run. i think this is because that trof is coming off US coast, and the BAMS see it, but they dont see the high that will build over it in 2-3 days...

WeatherTracker · #229 Postby **WeatherTracker** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 1:46 pm

Wow!!!! I am lost with the all the differrent model tracks....

#230 Postby **cjrciadt** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 1:48 pm

WeatherTracker wrote::uarrow: Wow!!!! I am lost with the all the differrent model tracks....

True, everywhere from 55 to 65 toward the end of the runs for those models.

artist · #231 Postby **artist** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 1:50 pm

WeatherTracker wrote::uarrow: Wow!!!! I am lost with the all the differrent model tracks....

in the posting above you will see at the beginning of each line the model posted -
BAmd
Bamm
A98e
Lbar

Look for those on the graphic posted above as well to see which they are.

cheezyWXguy · #232 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 1:51 pm

Why is it down to 85kt and up 6mb?

Scorpion · #233 Postby **Scorpion** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 1:52 pm

Looks like a big opening in the eyewall, maybe thats why.

YouTube · #234 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 1:53 pm

Mike Watkins and I were just talking about the UKMET and how it shows quite a ridge building in and forcing HH to the west- nearly due west- towards the end of its 12z run. Mike noted that there was one heck of a ridge in the UKMET at 144 hours. So we now have quite a reliable model in the "more west" camp- and recall that UKMET used to be in the "out to sea in a hurry" camp. Still wondering why the "almost unbeatable" GFDL holds firmly to its "up 59 and out" idea. Time will tell- that is the only for sure right now.

#235 Postby **OuterBanker** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 1:53 pm

cjrciadt wrote:http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/
The NGPI is there in white bending due west at the end of it's run.
Yeah looks like a major Hurakan.

What a shift from 16/9 18z al08 and 00z run on 17/9. I had thought the split occured on the 16th.

sma10 · #236 Postby **sma10** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 2:00 pm

hurricanetrack wrote:Still wondering why the "almost unbeatable" GFDL holds firmly to its "up 59 and out" idea.

Well, the obvious answer is -- it might be correct.

artist · #237 Postby **artist** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 2:02 pm

hurricanetrack wrote:Mike Watkins and I were just talking about the UKMET and how it shows quite a ridge building in and forcing HH to the west- nearly due west- towards the end of its 12z run. Mike noted that there was one heck of a ridge in the UKMET at 144 hours. So we now have quite a reliable model in the "more west" camp- and recall that UKMET used to be in the "out to sea in a hurry" camp. Still wondering why the "almost unbeatable" GFDL holds firmly to its "up 59 and out" idea. Time will tell- that is the only for sure right now.

does the ukmet include data from that dropsonde mission that was out there?

jusforsean · #238 Postby **jusforsean** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 2:09 pm

HURAKAN wrote:

Major hurricane, anyone?

no thanks, I'm full

#239 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 2:10 pm

URNT40 KWBC 171830
NOAA2 WXWXA HELENE
180100 2057 04846 7650 -0645 157022 +180 +138 168024 017 000
180200 2058 04850 7654 -0656 125015 +178 +139 130019 999 999
180300 2055 04853 7654 -0658 123003 +179 +142 126011 999 999
180400 2051 04852 7653 -0648 264013 +177 +143 258019 021 001
180500 2047 04850 7364 -0645 254024 +181 +138 255029 023 000
180600 2044 04848 5992 -0717 250034 +201 +162 247037 032 001
180700 2040 04845 5610 -0701 249047 +202 +170 253058 052 001
180800 2037 04843 5638 -0647 253071 +193 +175 248078 066 004
180900 2033 04841 5623 -0579 241082 +182 +171 242083 072 007
181000 2030 04838 5621 -0484 237082 +181 +164 235084 068 010
181100 2027 04836 5473 -0405 233081 +173 +158 233082 062 011
181200 2024 04834 5364 -0350 231076 +179 +154 231078 058 008
181300 2021 04832 5339 -0305 230071 +178 +153 230074 056 014
181400 2018 04830 5292 -0256 230070 +182 +158 230071 059 013
181500 2018 04826 5308 -0225 225069 +177 +163 230071 052 009
181600 2020 04821 5240 -0224 221070 +177 +164 222071 052 007
181700 2023 04816 5279 -0218 217071 +180 +162 212074 054 009
181800 2025 04812 5261 -0206 210071 +177 +166 210073 053 010
181900 2028 04807 5234 -0190 203072 +181 +156 201072 050 003
182000 2030 04803 5303 -0165 199072 +182 +146 200073 046 004
182100 2033 04759 5283 -0145 196071 +184 +145 196072 046 004
182200 2037 04755 5197 -0132 192069 +181 +149 194070 047 005
182300 2041 04754 5087 -0140 187070 +178 +152 185072 999 999
182400 2044 04757 5158 -0166 183074 +180 +151 184076 048 005
182500 2046 04801 5167 -0211 182078 +182 +152 181080 053 009
182600 2048 04805 5190 -0258 180078 +177 +161 179081 053 007
182700 2050 04809 5278 -0285 182083 +172 +164 181086 056 013
182800 2053 04813 5321 -0336 181087 +177 +158 180088 056 005
182900 2055 04817 5288 -0408 181092 +174 +159 181097 062 014
183000 2056 04822 5384 -0495 179094 +174 +164 176097 071 027

Hey folks,look what is around Helene right now,a NOAA plane.

artist · #240 Postby **artist** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 2:13 pm

will you start a recon thread??

Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

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