Akash and Gonu thread

[Stratosphere747]

The news has just hit the market. Nothing like the futures market and such getting a look at the wires.

Of all the historic storms of the last few years, this could rank as the most historic....

[HURAKAN]

The price of oil goes up when hurricanes affect the Gulf region. Is not a bad time to wonder what will happen with this system affecting the gold mine of oil in the world.

[Weatherfreak000]

Yeah, if it makes an 882 pressure perhaps...

[HurricaneRobert]

It's an overreaction, I think. Oman only exports about .7 million barrels a day. It may keep some ships coming out of the Gulf of Oman for a couple of days, but unless it hits Iran, I think the damage to the oil industry will be minimal.

[hurricanefloyd5]

please change title to gonu winds at 160mph

No I'd rather not, because that's the JTWC. IMD, which is the WMO-designated centre, doesn't have it that high. The SSHS categroy in the title is already there as a comparison.

yes it is up to 160mph winds gust to 195!!!!!!

loomk at see http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad and if that dose not work try this one here http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

[WmE]

Yes the JTWC has it at 160 mph. However the JTWC is NOT official. The IMD is the official forecasting body and IMD says that it has NOT got 160 mph winds.

[pup55]

The price of oil goes up when hurricanes affect the Gulf region

This is not the "normal gulf" for this type of situation.

Stratosphere

The name says it all.

[Stratosphere747]

It's an overreaction, I think. Oman only exports about .7 million barrels a day. It may keep some ships coming out of the Gulf of Oman for a couple of days, but unless it hits Iran, I think the damage to the oil industry will be minimal.

No question it's an overreaction. Both the Saudis and UAE have already said that on its current course they foresee no real impacts. As mentioned Oman is not a main producer in the region.

[windstorm99]

Good afternoon...

Just takeing a look at some IR imagery from this monster and all i can see is wow!

[x-y-no]

It's an overreaction, I think. Oman only exports about .7 million barrels a day. It may keep some ships coming out of the Gulf of Oman for a couple of days, but unless it hits Iran, I think the damage to the oil industry will be minimal.

I'd think this would interrupt all shipping out of the Persian Gulf for a few days. That'll cause a price spike.

Hope our carrier groups are safely out of the way ...

[hurricanefloyd5]

I hope so too

[windstorm99]

Here's another one!

[HurricaneRobert]

It's an apples & oranges comparison. JTWC is unofficial, but it uses a standard of 1-minute wind averages that people along the Atlantic are familiar with. IMD use of 10-minute average means a storm will never officially have winds that high. I think IMD is being very conservative with this one. Their pressure estimates seem way too high. People in Gonu's path could really underestimate the severity of the storm.

[Meso]

Wow...amazing...I was looking at the african forecast models a week or so ago looking what was coming my way in South Africa,and noticed the model forecasting this far up north.Didn't think it would get this intense though

[HarlequinBoy]

It's a stunning storm to say the least!!

[WmE]

It's an apples & oranges comparison. JTWC is unofficial, but it uses a standard of 1-minute wind averages that people along the Atlantic are familiar with. IMD use of 10-minute average means a storm will never officially have winds that high. I think IMD is being very conservative with this one. Their pressure estimates seem way too high. People in Gonu's path could really underestimate the severity of the storm.

Well, I considered the conversion from 10 to 1 minute mean. A super cyclonic storm would convert to a Cat. 5 hurricane but the storm is just a very severe cyclonic storm, albeit a strong one.

[P.K.]

but it uses a standard of 1-minute wind averages that people along the Atlantic are familiar with. IMD use of 10-minute average means a storm will never officially have winds that high.

Not this side of the Atlantic.

We now have a Super Cyclonic Storm.


Dated: 4th June, 2007


Subject: A Super Cyclonic Storm “GONU’ over East
Central and adjoining westcentral and north
Arabian Sea


TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI


TROPICAL STORM “GONU” ADVISORY NO. NINETEEN ISSUED AT 1700 UTC OF 4TH JUNE, 2007 BASED ON 1500 UTC CHARTS OF 4TH JUNE 2007. THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “GONU” INTENSIFIED INTO A SUPER CYCLONIC STORM AND LAY CENTRED AT 1500 UTC OF TODAY, THE 4TH JUNE 2007 OVER NORTHWEST ARABIAN SEA AND ADJOINING CENTRAL AND NORTH EAST ARABIAN SEA NEAR LAT. 20.00N AND LONG 64.00E, ABOUT 600 KMS SOUTHWEST OF DWARKA (42731).


CURRENT INTENSITY T6.5 RPT T6.5 SATELLITE IMAGERIES SHOW VISIBLE “EYE” WITH SOLID INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 920 HPA. MAXIMUM SURFACE SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 130 KTS GUSTING 160KTS.

FORECAST: THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS THE COAST OF OMAN BY FORENOON OF 6TH JUNE 2007. 24 HOURS FORECAST INTENSITY IS T6.5 RPT T6.5. SEA CONDITION WILL BE PHENOMENAL.

[WmE]

Ok now we have a Super cyclonic storm.

[P.K.]

1999 Cyclone 05B max windspeed from JTWC was also 140 kt, to compare. PK, do you happen to have IMD's peak for that storm?

They never replied to any of my BT queries so no I don't sadly.

[P.K.]