Atlantic INVEST 94L

[wxman57]

All major models are creating some sort of vorticy crossing south FL this Hr.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Note that you're looking at model data now over 24 hours old. This system has virtually no chance of developing into a TD/TS. Just some passing thunderstorms for extreme south Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas over the weekend.

[Stormcenter]

All major models are creating some sort of vorticy crossing south FL this Hr.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Note that you're looking at model data now over 24 hours old. This system has virtually no chance of developing into a TD/TS. Just some passing thunderstorms for extreme south Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas over the weekend.

wxman57 I never like to use the words "no chance" in reference to the tropics.
I personally have seen way too many strange things happen to say that so I
commend for going on the limb.

[wxman57]

All major models are creating some sort of vorticy crossing south FL this Hr.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Note that you're looking at model data now over 24 hours old. This system has virtually no chance of developing into a TD/TS. Just some passing thunderstorms for extreme south Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas over the weekend.

wxman57 I never like to use the words "no chance" in reference to the tropics.
I personally have seen way too many strange things happen to say that so I
commend for going on the limb.

I did qualify it with the word "virtually".

[wzrgirl1]

think you are right that it won't be a named system.....just a little squally over here

[Chacor]

TWO:

291
ABNT20 KNHC 160216
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ACROSS CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR. EVEN IF NO DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[jasons2k]

I'm not holding my breath for this one. Still think early July, at least, for Chantal. But then, as Harold Taft would say, "the bottom drops out" IMO.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

this one has a chance...if it can only organize...then it
would intensify as there will be a short period
of favorable shear...
but i'll keep watching it closely
throughout the night in hopes
that it brings south florida
heavy rain where it is needed
the most...

[boca]

Tell me if you can see any hint of a circulation on the far western edge of this cloud mass.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-ir2.html
It looks like low clouds are turning counterclockwise between the Yucatan and Cuba.

[Javlin]

Almost Boca don't know if I could make that call quite yet.The other problem is the lack TS with it.

[JonathanBelles]

I see a hint of circulation on that Sat.

[boca]

I can see the low cloud streamers pulling off to the west on the sat pic posted above.

[miamicanes177]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Shear is 5-10kts which is shockingly favorable given this is June. It is over the warmest SST's in the Atlantic and the highest TCHP. I give this a 60% chance to become TS Chantal.

[Nimbus]

Surface pressure at the Yucatan Channel buoy 1004 MB falling rapidly.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

Looks like a little LLC starting just east of Cozumel.

[boca]

That's about were that turning is taking place.

[Kennethb]

Hey, its the middle of June. Chances of development is very slim. Enjoy the quiet while we can.

[caneman]

Surface pressure at the Yucatan Channel buoy 1004 MB falling rapidly.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

Looks like a little LLC starting just east of Cozumel.

That is pretty low. Need some concentrated T-storms though

[Stormcenter]

Surface pressure at the Yucatan Channel buoy 1004 MB falling rapidly.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

Looks like a little LLC starting just east of Cozumel.

That is pretty low. Need some concentrated T-storms though

I must say that is pretty low.

[NDG]

Surface pressure at the Yucatan Channel buoy 1004 MB falling rapidly.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

Looks like a little LLC starting just east of Cozumel.

That is pretty low. Need some concentrated T-storms though

I must say that is pretty low.

That seems to be a little strange that is so low when surrounding areas are much higher, there would had been much stronger winds around that buoy. Lets see if any convection forms around that area in the next few hours.

[Aric Dunn]

Surface pressure at the Yucatan Channel buoy 1004 MB falling rapidly.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

Looks like a little LLC starting just east of Cozumel.

That is pretty low. Need some concentrated T-storms though

I must say that is pretty low.

That seems to be a little strange that is so low when surrounding areas are much higher, there would had been much stronger winds around that buoy. Lets see if any convection forms around that area in the next few hours.

i agree.. its a little odd. let me look at some things i will get back to everyone in a hour..
by the way.. if that is the case and it has fallen that much .. there be something trying to get going.

[Javlin]

While everyone continues with the pull to the NE that only occurs if the system starts to develop otherwise it sits.Then that brings in other factors down the road should a LLC develop later the timing of the ULL's,shear and some what if's.The models are based on a closed low aren't they?that is more or less associated with the TS activity to the E?just questions.