2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[WeatherEmperor]

Add the 12z JMA to the list showing Caribbean development




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[TheStormExpert]

1st run it shows it too. I fully expect the GFS to join in the next run or two.

[ronjon]

Come on CMC lol the 28th? That’s my 40th birthday :0(

Lol mine too...but I'm at the age where they can't bake cakes big enough to fit all the candles anymore.

[TheStormExpert]

12z EPS Ensembles.

[BYG Jacob]

That's a heavy lean to the Caribbean

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET:

[gatorcane]

Well here we go, Happy hour GFS is up. I am sure it won't disappoint especially looking at model trends the past 24 hours.

[CourierPR]

Well here we go, Happy hour GFS is up. I am sure it won't disappoint especially looking at model trends the past 24 hours.

Can you give a screen shot?

[Alyono]

looks like the typical slow moving october ACE munching storm will be forming.

Hope when it doodles, it doodles over the open Caribbean and not near land, or else we'll be talking about massive flooding

[TheStormExpert]

Well here we go, Happy hour GFS is up. I am sure it won't disappoint especially looking at model trends the past 24 hours.

Can you give a screen shot?

Still nothing from the GFS.

[toad strangler]

Happy Hour GFS OP still holding out. Let's see if ensembles continue to disagree.

[TheStormExpert]

The 12z Euro Control run has a 992mb storm in the NW Caribbean heading NE/NNE towards Southewestern Cuba and weakening to 1005mb just south of the Isle of Youth while heading slowly due north.

[TheStormExpert]

18z “Happy Hour” GEFS continues to move the area into Central America around Nicaragua in a week with little to no development prior to it.

[WeatherEmperor]

18z GEFS at 240hrs




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[gatorcane]

12Z NASA model 120 hours:

[Alyono]

GFS INSISTS we are in an el niño and that the SST maps are wrong. It insists that this will form in the EPAC. meanwhile, CMC and UKMET have a Caribbean system

[Usf11]

With the cold front coming I don't think Florida will see any action. If a ts or hurricane hits Florida I will donate $85 to the site.

[WeatherHoon]

With the cold front coming I don't think Florida will see any action. If a ts or hurricane hits Florida I will donate $85 to the site.

If a storm can get itself somewhere near the Yucatán Channel while a cold front is dipping down, I'd say chances go up for a Florida impact.

[CyclonicFury]

GFS INSISTS we are in an el niño and that the SST maps are wrong. It insists that this will form in the EPAC. meanwhile, CMC and UKMET have a Caribbean system

The GFS has had a severe EPAC bias since it was upgraded. Probably modeled upwards of 10 convective feedback driven major hurricanes that never became nearly as strong.

[TheStormExpert]

00z Euro completely drops development.