2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

Para again...

[MetroMike]

Para again...

https://i.imgur.com/slXPvGK.gif

12Z is coming out now, we shall see if it persists which i doubt.

[SouthFLTropics]

That 06z Para has Tampa Bay in its sights. The time frame for the Western Caribbean development keeps changing but the general idea for something to start cooking down there beyond day 10 is definitely there. As we get into next week and within the 10 day time we will have to see if the other models latch on to this. Given the right conditions, the Western Carib is more than capable of supporting a monster down there this year. The waters are scorching and untapped. I hope 2020 is not saving its best for last and targeting us in South Florida as so far we've been given a pass this year. It almost feels like playing Monopoly and hoping you don't land on that dudes string of properties where he has built hotels. A roll of the dice.

[SFLcane]

That 06z Para has Tampa Bay in its sights. The time frame for the Western Caribbean development keeps changing but the general idea for something to start cooking down there beyond day 10 is definitely there. As we get into next week and within the 10 day time we will have to see if the other models latch on to this. Given the right conditions, the Western Carib is more than capable of supporting a monster down there this year. The waters are scorching and untapped. I hope 2020 is not saving its best for last and targeting us in South Florida as so far we've been given a pass this year. It almost feels like playing Monopoly and hoping you don't land on that dudes string of properties where he has built hotels. A roll of the dice.

Timing was brought in now starts around 200hrs.

[chaser1]

That 06z Para has Tampa Bay in its sights. The time frame for the Western Caribbean development keeps changing but the general idea for something to start cooking down there beyond day 10 is definitely there. As we get into next week and within the 10 day time we will have to see if the other models latch on to this. Given the right conditions, the Western Carib is more than capable of supporting a monster down there this year. The waters are scorching and untapped. I hope 2020 is not saving its best for last and targeting us in South Florida as so far we've been given a pass this year. It almost feels like playing Monopoly and hoping you don't land on that dudes string of properties where he has built hotels. A roll of the dice.

Just noticed that the (regular) GFS also now form this new system around the 300 hr forecast. It deepens the system to around the 970's while inching NW to near Cancun. Plenty of time to watch for model consistency (there's an oxymoron for ya lol)

[TheStormExpert]

That 06z Para has Tampa Bay in its sights. The time frame for the Western Caribbean development keeps changing but the general idea for something to start cooking down there beyond day 10 is definitely there. As we get into next week and within the 10 day time we will have to see if the other models latch on to this. Given the right conditions, the Western Carib is more than capable of supporting a monster down there this year. The waters are scorching and untapped. I hope 2020 is not saving its best for last and targeting us in South Florida as so far we've been given a pass this year. It almost feels like playing Monopoly and hoping you don't land on that dudes string of properties where he has built hotels. A roll of the dice.

The TCHP is literally off the charts in the Western Caribbean!

[SouthFLTropics]

That 06z Para has Tampa Bay in its sights. The time frame for the Western Caribbean development keeps changing but the general idea for something to start cooking down there beyond day 10 is definitely there. As we get into next week and within the 10 day time we will have to see if the other models latch on to this. Given the right conditions, the Western Carib is more than capable of supporting a monster down there this year. The waters are scorching and untapped. I hope 2020 is not saving its best for last and targeting us in South Florida as so far we've been given a pass this year. It almost feels like playing Monopoly and hoping you don't land on that dudes string of properties where he has built hotels. A roll of the dice.

Just noticed that the (regular) GFS also now form this new system around the 300 hr forecast. It deepens the system to around the 970's while inching NW to near Cancun. Plenty of time to watch for model consistency (there's an oxymoron for ya lol)

Whenever I think of an Oxymoron I think of Capt. Bart Mancuso in "Hunt for Red October" when he's talking to Jack Ryan... "Central Intelligence Agency?...Now there's a contradiction in terms."

[CourierPR]

A cold front is progged to move through South Florida early this coming week. Will this be the catalyst for TC genesis in the Caribbean?

[SconnieCane]

A cold front is progged to move through South Florida early this coming week. Will this be the catalyst for TC genesis in the Caribbean?

No, this is much further out in time than that.

Could influence the eventual track and intensity of 22/Alpha-dawg. As to how, though...

[SFLcane]

A cold front is progged to move through South Florida early this coming week. Will this be the catalyst for TC genesis in the Caribbean?

Potentially.. For now the only model showing development is the gfs and para. Could be a phantom or convective feedback issues who knows

[sphelps8681]

Just heard another storm in the Atlantic will be named sub tropical storm Alpha.

[northjaxpro]

Just heard another storm in the Atlantic will be named sub tropical storm Alpha.

99L

[TallahasseeMan]

GFS has been pretty consistent in developing something in the far western Caribbean for the past 4 or so runs. Something to keep an eye on after soon to be Beta.

[WeatherEmperor]

There is your South Florida hurricane. ROFL!!




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[northjaxpro]

As If we don't have enough out there to monitor... My Lord. Thankfully that is way down the road. However, the way this crazy year has unfolded, it is planting a seed in our minds of what may be coming out of the Caribbean down the road . We are getting to that time of the year for Caribbean tropical cyclones.

[SFLcane]

Larry GFS heard you!

[SFLcane]

Gfs might be on to something it sparks development from a wave rolling of Africa soon.

[WxEp]

Gfs might be on to something it sparks development from a wave rolling of Africa soon.

Also, the timeline of development from GFS and GFS-Para hasn't (so far) been pushing back as the GFS phantom storms often do around this time of year in the W Carib.

[AutoPenalti]

Larry GFS heard you!

https://i.imgur.com/YcQxkFm.gif

Of course, it goes through the narrowest part of Cuba.

[aspen]

The CFS has also shown a Caribbean system like that, and the CFS has done well sniffing out systems like Isaias weeks in advance. I guess we better start preparing ourselves for Cat 5 Hurricane Delta or something like that.