ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

Folks,dont look now but the soi dailys have been in positive this week. However, I suspect this is only a brief period for it to be there.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... soivalues/

[Ntxw]

Folks,dont look now but the soi dailys have been in positive this week. However, I suspect this is only a brief period for it to be there.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... soivalues/

Euro even shows some high positives 20+ in the short term. However I do agree with you that it will be a brief period in response to unfavorable MJO rather than the weakening of Nino.

[cycloneye]

Folks,dont look now but the soi dailys have been in positive this week. However, I suspect this is only a brief period for it to be there.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... soivalues/

Euro even shows some high positives 20+ in the short term. However I do agree with you that it will be a brief period in response to unfavorable MJO rather than the weakening of Nino.

And the positives keep going and going and going for now. (5 days in a row)

[dexterlabio]

30 day SOI went above -8.00. though I still think El Nino is very likely to emerge during the last third of this year. For example, back in 2009 the 30-day SOI values were having upticks even reaching the positive mark but then made a sharp swing downwards after the upward trend.

I guess a big time warning by the time of another Kelvin wave or returning of MJO to the Pacific. When that happens, El Nino would be knocking on our doors.

[cycloneye]

More delays of El Nino being in the Pacific officially will mean warm Neutral conditions for the peak of the North Atlantic season in ASO. (Just saying)

[Ntxw]

As I've mentioned in before post. This does not mean the El Nino to be is going away. It is in response to the transition of the MJO (though continuous convection feed near the dateline would be needed for true El Nino). Just won't see the drastic warming as we've seen the last couple weeks. Wobble +- .5c anomaly for the rest of this month perhaps?

[Blown Away]

El Nino has not been officially declared, but it seems we are close. Are there signs of El Nino type conditions in the Atlantic Basin now?

[Kingarabian]

El Nino has not been officially declared, but it seems we are close. Are there signs of El Nino type conditions in the Atlantic Basin now?

Yes, shear is really high.

[NDG]

El Nino has not been officially declared, but it seems we are close. Are there signs of El Nino type conditions in the Atlantic Basin now?

Yes, shear is really high.

Is mid July only, so I would not say that it is that abnormally high and that it is due in part to El Nino type conditions already in place.
Had it been August already then I would had been giving it the benefict of doubt that indeed there is already El Nino type conditions in the Atlantic.

Edit:
I would admit that the Caribbean has not seen the best UL conditions in the last few weeks or so, indicative that if there is any parts of the Atlantic basin getting already affected by the abnormally warm waters on Nino Regions 1+2 and Region 3 is the Caribbean, but currently not being affected much at all is the GOM and the western Atlantic off the US east coast. Conditions in the tropical Atlantic is nothing out of the ordinary thanks to the negative NAO during the last couple of months.

[cycloneye]

And the 30 day SOI has gone up and above the -8 El Nino threshold line following the dailys. Now the question is if this index will continue to go up or is going to stairstep in the comming days and weeks.

[cycloneye]

Folks,dont look now but the soi dailys have been in positive this week. However, I suspect this is only a brief period for it to be there.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... soivalues/

Euro even shows some high positives 20+ in the short term. However I do agree with you that it will be a brief period in response to unfavorable MJO rather than the weakening of Nino.

And the positives keep going and going and going for now. (5 days in a row)

Make it 6.

[tolakram]

If you want to see how shear and other conditions are compared to climatology visit this site: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

Graphs at the bottom show current conditions.

Live image of the current tropical atlantic shear graph...

[cycloneye]

Well,is now 8 days in a row that the daily SOI has been in positive as it looks like the MJO is still stucked in the Indian Ocean,which means no new Kelvin Wave moving from west to east transporting warmer waters,and all of that means a possible delay of the official arrival of El Nino. Now let's see for how many more days it will stay positive and the 30 day index remains well above the El Nino threshold of -8 and below.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... soivalues/

[NDG]

ECMWF's July update of its El Nino Seasonal Range forecast is starting to point to a weak El Nino by the heart of the hurricane season instead of a moderate El Nino like it was showing during the last couple of months, going by a concensus.
In fact, more of its members have come over to a warm neutral side through September.

[NDG]

This how warm bias it was back in April, the forecast that many were going by.

[floridasun78]

so enso may not be strong as forecast back in april before forecast came out june 1?

[Kingarabian]

ECMWF's July update of its El Nino Seasonal Range forecast is starting to point to a weak El Nino by the heart of the hurricane season instead of a moderate El Nino like it was showing during the last couple of months, going by a concensus.
In fact, more of its members have come over to a warm neutral side through September.

[img][/img]

It's pretty much split on how strong it will be. Thing is, despite the SOI's recent raise, El-Nino conditions have proven to be able to rapidly intensify once the MJO arrives. Once the MJO wakes up like the way it did in July, IMHO then we will see El-Nino set a firm grip.
Though we won't see anything like 2009's El-Nino haha. That was a pretty insane El-Nino.

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[Kingarabian]

so enso may not be strong as forecast back in april before forecast came out june 1?

I think this forecast is now split because the MJO is stuck in the Indian Ocean. I believe the GFS brings it back soon, but the Euro keeps it there. Will see whose correct.

[cycloneye]

The new update of the 30 day SOI continues with the uptick (-6.3) from -7.2 that was on Saturday. See graphic at 6 posts above.

[Ntxw]

Very interesting uptick in the SOI values. Lets see how much much of a reflection SST temp anomalies show with tomorrow's update.