ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[dexterlabio]

does anyone think 2006 can serve as an analog year? i may be having the wrong idea that 2006 had an unexpected shift to El Nino during the last quarter of that year, but I really do think that's the case. We could see a similar scenario this year if El Nino is kept at bay until September.

[cycloneye]

If you compare the July 2nd from the July 16th graphics,there has been a very slight cooling in the equatorial Pacific.And the -PDO remains in place when you look at that big blue pool.

July 2nd




July 16th

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 7/16/12 Update

Nino 3.4 goes down to +0.4C from the +0.5C that was in last week's update and that in other words is below the El Nino threshold. Let's see what the next updates have to see if we are going to see El Nino soon or it may be delayed.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The MJO won't be in the east Pacific anytime soon. Should continue to see a hold in anomalies there, or maybe continued slight cooling.

[NDG]

All the sudden currently EPAC and Atlantic SSTs is starting to come close to '08 as an analog year. But not thait it will stay like that for very long.

[Blown Away]

Is there a noticeable difference between almost El Niño and a declared weak El Nino when it comes to the effect on the hurricane season?

[lilybeth]

Is there a noticeable difference between almost El Niño and a declared weak El Nino when it comes to the effect on the hurricane season?

I would love to hear the answer to this myself. I find the whole El Nino - La Nina weather phenomenon to be very interesting. I don't believe I had even heard of these two until a few years back (maybe 1995 or so?) when we had a particularly strong El Nino year and it was all over the news.

[Kingarabian]

As the case when the SOI was skyrocketing in June, it barely affected the SST's in the EPac... Whats the correlation?

[hurricanetrack]

Let's look at Daniel, Emilia and to some extent, Fabio. The first two hurricanes moved nearly due west under a strong, deep layer ridge. This also kicked up the trade winds just enough to cool things down a tad. Look at the area just off South America, down in the right-hand corner on the SST Reynolds map, a small area of significant cooling showed up:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/pac_anom.gif

The positive SOI, the west-moving hurricanes and the slight cooling of the Nino areas seem to all be connected. How long will it last? I would venture to guess as long as the MJO moves slowly and stays out of the west Pac. We'll see....for now, no El Nino and it's July 16.

[Ntxw]

Is there a noticeable difference between almost El Niño and a declared weak El Nino when it comes to the effect on the hurricane season?

As mentioned by LarryWx, ENSO states aren't declared until months and months looking back in retrospect (you average 3 previous months for the trimonthly which is what is used). If there was a Nino going on now it won't be declared until November or later (possibly October). By then it's useless since we have already passed the season. You take the best guess by applying all aspects such as SST anomalies (being what state the enso is in), SOI (the atmosphere's reaction to enso) and so forth. What I like to do is take whatever the values are for the month and apply the effects in to the next.

Realistically July is a warm-neutral thus far. There really isn't too much of a difference in weak Nino and warm-neutral. Minor effects which grow as the SST anomalies warm. It's like saying a strong TS or weak Hurricane, there really isn't much of a difference whether or not it is declared or not declared.

[hcane27]

Is there a noticeable difference between almost El Niño and a declared weak El Nino when it comes to the effect on the hurricane season?

As mentioned by LarryWx, ENSO states aren't declared until months and months looking back in retrospect (you average 3 previous months for the trimonthly which is what is used). If there was a Nino going on now it won't be declared until November or later (possibly October). By then it's useless since we have already passed the season. You take the best guess by applying all aspects such as SST anomalies (being what state the enso is in), SOI (the atmosphere's reaction to enso) and so forth. What I like to do is take whatever the values are for the month and apply the effects in to the next.

Realistically July is a warm-neutral thus far. There really isn't too much of a difference in weak Nino and warm-neutral. Minor effects which grow as the SST anomalies warm. It's like saying a strong TS or weak Hurricane, there really isn't much of a difference whether or not it is declared or not declared.

The question itself is excellent and direct , the answer is extremely convoluted. ENSO itself has many variants , and one should inspect the effects upon the downstream activity in the Atlantic not as a current time issue but a partial delayed reaction. Meaning that the there are immediate effects as as well as delayed ones. One also should look past the concept of the El Nino or La Nina and more closely examine the monthly SST's and the pattern that the SST's in the various regions are following in the months leading up to the one you are examining. The El Nino / La Nina are indeed not "declared" for some months later , and I sometimes wonder if they mean that much in the immediate sense. In other words , they are great for historical purposes , and long-term forecast purposes , but not for near-term purposes. So , I look away from the "El Nino / La Nina" determinations , and more to the latest information available and immediately preceding patterns.

[cycloneye]

To have some humor while we wait for any resolution about how ENSO will be in the next 2-3 months,here is a little boy. (El Nino in Spanish)

[HurricaneJoe22]

He's just sick over the lack of Atlantic tropical activity.

[cycloneye]

Is now 10 days in a row with the daily SOI being positive. It may have been a noise thing 5 days ago but now is more than that IMO.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... soivalues/

[Blown Away]

Is now 10 days in a row with the daily SOI being positive. It may have been a noise thing 5 days ago but now is more than that IMO.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... soivalues/

The 90 day average is up a bit from yesterday? Could this be the turn?

[cycloneye]

Is now 10 days in a row with the daily SOI being positive. It may have been a noise thing 5 days ago but now is more than that IMO.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... soivalues/

The 90 day average is up a bit from yesterday? Could this be the turn?

The 90 day is the last one to catch up to what the dailys are doing.

[euro6208]

one thing is for sure...the pacific is very mysterious...

[cycloneye]

one thing is for sure...the pacific is very mysterious...

What do you mean by that?

[cycloneye]

Australian Update of 7/17/12

They have not made El Niño official yet.

Tropical Pacific remains close to El Niño thresholds

Issued on Tuesday 17 July | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

The past fortnight has seen climate indicators ease slightly, with all showing values near the threshold for an El Niño event. While indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), sea surface temperatures and trade winds have eased over the past two weeks, such short-term fluctuations are common and to be expected, and indicators still clearly remain near El Niño thresholds.

Over the last few months, observations have been trending toward El Niño. This is consistent with most model forecasts indicating that the tropical Pacific may approach or exceed El Niño thresholds sometime during the late southern winter or spring 2012. Some models indicate only borderline El Niño conditions may occur, but none suggest a return of La Niña.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[Blown Away]

14 Jul 2012 1013.65 1011.25 8.92 -7.08 -3.39
15 Jul 2012 1015.43 1011.15 20.50 -6.65 -3.23
16 Jul 2012 1014.53 1012.20 8.49 -6.65 -3.18
17 Jul 2012 1015.39 1012.60 11.33 -5.98 -3.21
18 Jul 2012 1014.54 1013.10 3.02 -5.38 -3.39

Still ticking up.