ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

The uptick streak of the daily SOI is over after 14 days as it went negative on Sunday.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... soivalues/

The daily SOI is now with two days in a row in negative.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 7/23/12 Weekly Update

IMO,is inevitable at this point that El Nino will be declared officially in the next 3 to 4 weeks if things continue to behave as it is doing presently. This update has Nino 3.4 warming again (+0.5C) after cooling a little bit in the past couple of weeks.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[NDG]

Not surprised at all
Very likely now that the Atlantic season will come to an abrupt end after the peak of the season, IMO.

Yes, it has warmed up again during this week, I will not be surprised if next week's weekly update is raised back up to at last .5 deg C above average for Nino 3.4

[cycloneye]

For the newbies and for those who dont know a lot about these numbers of the Nino regions (1+2/3/3.4 and 4) and in which areas they cover,here is the graphic.

[cycloneye]

This is off-topic because is Talking Tropics forum,but a heads up about how next winter in the U.S will be like depends on how strong El Nino will be from the moment it is declared officially going ahead until the end of 2012 and early 2013. For those newbies that only come to Talking Tropics forum ,we have a Winter forum where all discussions about that period are posted.

Winter Weather Forum

[Kingarabian]

Wait so why did the SOI go up anyway?

[Ntxw]

Wait so why did the SOI go up anyway?

MJO leaving tropical pacific to Indian Ocean. Allowed high pressure to build over Tahiti which in response SOI rose.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

El Nino cannot be declared anytime soon because the ONI has to remain above 0.5C for three consecutive months. That puts the declaration date in October at the earliest.

[wxman57]

El Nino cannot be declared anytime soon because the ONI has to remain above 0.5C for three consecutive months. That puts the declaration date in October at the earliest.

That is true, though its impact could be felt closer to the onset of warmer temps in the Tropical Pacific.

[cycloneye]

The July Eurosip forecast is for between Weak and Moderate El Nino thru the end of 2012.

[Frank2]

TWC mentioned the EPAC warming last evening - an El Nino event would be good for the trough-stricken areas of the midwest and plains, because they cause increased rainfall in those areas as seen during past events...

Any pro met comments would be appreciated...

[cycloneye]

Nino 3.4 continues to warm after the CPC 7/23/12 update of +0.5C,now up to +0.68C rounding to +0.7C according to the Aussies data.Ntxw,has the new Kelvin Wave rolled thru the Equatorial Pacific?

[NDG]

No pro here, but IMO not all El Ninos have equally effects. I think that once we see a good positive NAO pattern set up, the Plains might see relief.

[weatherdude1108]

No pro here, but IMO not all El Ninos have equally effects. I think that once we see a good positive NAO pattern set up, the Plains might see relief.

What about Texas? West to Central Texas is still in bad shape and needs major relief, not to mention the Colorado and Medina River systems and their associated lakes.

[HURRICANELONNY]

They didn't say how strong El Nino could get. This story was in todays USA TODAY. 7/25/2012

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/climate ... 56257174/1

[Ntxw]

Cycloneye, the MJO is very weak and over the Maritimes. What appears to be happening is convection is flaring up throughout the tropical Pacific especially over the international dateline and WPAC. Nino 4's warm up lately is allowing full progression and no block to westerlies and playing a big role. It's now becoming likely a feedback effect to El Nino may be occuring. A few posts ago I made mention that a permanent convection feed (subtropical jet) sets up during true El Nino conditions. This has the possibilities of becoming such a feature.

Note: The MJO becomes less reliable as we leave the neutral state. Example El Nino regenerates convection in the Pacific no matter what state the MJO is in and La Nina suppresses convection and keeps the MJO in the Indian Ocean. So going forward I think we should put less emphasis on what state MJO is in and more on activity in the tropical Pacific.

Notice the convective burst below Hawaii and it's eastward progression opposite of what is usually happening in the tropics.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/irtempanim.shtml

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye, the MJO is very weak and over the Maritimes. What appears to be happening is convection is flaring up throughout the tropical Pacific especially over the international dateline and WPAC. Nino 4's warm up lately is allowing full progression and no block to westerlies and playing a big role. It's now becoming likely a feedback effect to El Nino may be occuring. A few posts ago I made mention that a permanent convection feed (subtropical jet) sets up during true El Nino conditions. This has the possibilities of becoming such a feature.

Note: The MJO becomes less reliable as we leave the neutral state. Example El Nino regenerates convection in the Pacific no matter what state the MJO is in and La Nina suppresses convection and keeps the MJO in the Indian Ocean. So going forward I think we should put less emphasis on what state MJO is in and more on activity in the tropical Pacific.

Notice the convective burst below Hawaii and it's eastward progression opposite of what is usually happening in the tropics.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/irtempanim.shtml

Thank you for the clear explanation of what is going on with ENSO. It looks like El Nino will be declared sooner rather than later.

[Frank2]

What's almost funny is the uncertainty many long-range forecasts had - first they said lesser than average, then they said above average, now some say both - but leaning towards lesser...

And that's why the old-timers at the NHC didn't like those 6-month forecasts - even CSU has discontinued their December forecast because it was determined to be unreliable...

Frank

[Ntxw]

Medium and long range models are starting to pick up the prominent Kelvin wave/flare of convection recently in the WPAC and keeping it there even as the MJO remains weak. Look for some possible dramatic warming of Nino 4 and maybe 3.4 in the coming weeks.

[South Texas Storms]

So the mjo/convection being over the WPAC causes water temperatures to warm across the Nino region 4 and possibly 3.4 as well? Do you know why that occurs Ntxw?