2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

[boca]

Looks like by the ensembles that it will be a another Northern Gulf coast storm.

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/Da1ajzK.gif

And that run single-handedly confirms the WCar system the GFS/GFS-Para have been showing is based off of an AEW that will exit the coast of Africa in the coming days. Still showing the October 2nd-4th development time frame, although I wouldn’t be surprised if the wave develops earlier in the Caribbean, assuming it gets to the Caribbean and doesn’t recurve like Teddy and Wilfred.

[SFLcane]

Looks like by the ensembles that it will be a another Northern Gulf coast storm.

Way long range I would not put any stock on steering. I am just highlighting development possibilities on the ensembles.

[SouthFLTropics]

That 06z GFS kind of has a Mitch flair to it... Dives it SW and then back to the NW. Albeit Mitch was further west near Honduras when it took the SW dive.

[FixySLN]

GFS 10/7/2020

[tomatkins]

Looks like we might actually get a break once Beta and Teddy are out of the picture unless something comes off a dying front close to the US.

The GFS has been consistent over the past couple of days with trying to develop some energy that will be coming off of Venezuela around Oct 1.

[toad strangler]

Looks like by the ensembles that it will be a another Northern Gulf coast storm.

Yep, that what the ensembles insinuate but specific steering is the absolutely last, as in dead last item you look at this many hours out. Very slim chance the model is going to have 500mb figured out at that range.

[SFLcane]

If the euro guidance doesn’t show anything I guess not much to see here just "model bias" at its best despite the Euro’s subpar performance this season. We shall see

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1308052381830086656

[toad strangler]

If the euro guidance doesn’t show anything I guess not much to see here just "model bias" at its best despite the Euro’s subpar performance this season. We shall see

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1308052381830086656?

That's why I said yesterday that we need to get away from 384 hour maps. FAR away. GFS did this earlier in the season too down there ... and it was a phantom. At least this one looks to have a traceable spark to it. We'll see.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Just as a general rule, as a Floridian I fear October more than any other month.

Will be watching October very closely this season.

[aspen]

If the euro guidance doesn’t show anything I guess not much to see here just "model bias" at its best despite the Euro’s subpar performance this season. We shall see

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1308052381830086656?

That's why I said yesterday that we need to get away from 384 hour maps. FAR away. GFS did this earlier in the season too down there ... and it was a phantom. At least this one looks to have a traceable spark to it. We'll see.

There is an AEW just exiting the coast now, right? I think that’s the spark the GFS is latching on to. Also, shouldn’t the ridge build back now that Teddy is moving out of the way and Wilfred and Paulette probably won’t continue to have an impact on it?

[canes92]

Are more models showing development in early Oct? Hopefully it doesn't amount to anything, of course it is roughly 10 days away still so could change.

[SFLcane]

Model bias or no bias 06z GFS-P explodes this into a cat 4-5 potentially in the NW Caribbean.

[ElectricStorm]

Model bias or no bias 06z GFS-P explodes this into a cat 4-5 potentially in the NW Caribbean.

https://i.imgur.com/8I0sZGd.gif

I know it's the GFS but it has been quite consistent with this forming. This will be tracking over that insane OHC so if something forms it could certainly explode. Considering how bad the models have been at genesis this year, the trend form the GFS is concerning. Still long range though so we'll have to see of other models start picking up on it.

[AutoPenalti]

Model bias or no bias 06z GFS-P explodes this into a cat 4-5 potentially in the NW Caribbean.

https://i.imgur.com/8I0sZGd.gif

Kinda strange it bombs out like that considering the EPAC cane's outflow is present.

[SouthFLTropics]

Explodes on that GFS-Para is an understatement. It drops over 20mb in just 6 hours.

I know this is long range, but the fact that the GFS and GFS Para along with their ensembles and with some signals from the EPS ensembles, is enough in my opinion to believe that this won't be just another phantom.

[toad strangler]

Explodes on that GFS-Para is an understatement. It drops over 20mb in just 6 hours.

I know this is long range, but the fact that the GFS and GFS Para along with their ensembles and with some signals from the EPS ensembles, is enough in my opinion to believe that this won't be just another phantom.

Damn, another level headed dude on board. I'm not there yet. This needs to start moving up consistently on the GFS. With a SEEMINGLY traceable spark, it should be doing that.

[SouthFLTropics]

Explodes on that GFS-Para is an understatement. It drops over 20mb in just 6 hours.

I know this is long range, but the fact that the GFS and GFS Para along with their ensembles and with some signals from the EPS ensembles, is enough in my opinion to believe that this won't be just another phantom.

Damn, another level headed dude on board. I'm not there yet. This needs to start moving up consistently on the GFS. With a SEEMINGLY traceable spark, it should be doing that.

I agree, the timeline needs to keep moving forward. If it does, then we should start to see it showing up on other models like the CMC and Euro by mid to late week. If that doesn't happen, then it may well be just Wilma's ghost.

[gfsperpendicular]

Explodes on that GFS-Para is an understatement. It drops over 20mb in just 6 hours.

I know this is long range, but the fact that the GFS and GFS Para along with their ensembles and with some signals from the EPS ensembles, is enough in my opinion to believe that this won't be just another phantom.

Damn, another level headed dude on board. I'm not there yet. This needs to start moving up consistently on the GFS. With a SEEMINGLY traceable spark, it should be doing that.

It is. The time frame has been Oct 3-4 every single run. That GFS-Para run has a TD potentially under 300 hours. We'll see if it starts showing up on the Euro and others in a few days.