ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

:uarrow:

So the mjo/convection being over the WPAC causes water temperatures to warm across the Nino region 4 and possibly 3.4 as well? Do you know why that occurs Ntxw?

The MJO does not directly warm it. If what I know is correct, Kelvin waves do. Kelvin waves are usually started by activity of the MJO. They are seen as rises in sea surface heights (expanding water warms) which in our case brings up the warmer sub-surface waters. Complicated reading but that's about as simple as I can think of to put it

Today's SST anomalies also points to 3 having 4c+ (however not in the calculated spots) areas. That is pretty dramatic compared to early in the month. Just about all important Enso regions had warming this week.

[South Texas Storms]

Thanks for another good answer Ntxw. I hope I'm not bugging you with all of my questions lately. I'm just trying to learn more about ENSO right now (as our weather pattern in Texas is boring), and I'm really hopeful for a wet and cool winter here this year.

I have been looking at the CFSv1 and CFSv2 a lot lately, and they both have been agreeing on Nino 3.4 peaking at about 1.1 in October. I find that hard to believe as most Nino and Nina events typically peak in December or January, right?

[Ntxw]

Yeah lately the ENSO events have peaked NDJ. If it does in Oct, will probably at minimal hold steady through winter. That's the trend for the last decade or so at least. Models aren't so reliable that far anyway.

[South Texas Storms]

Yeah lately the ENSO events have peaked NDJ. If it does in Oct, will probably at minimal hold steady through winter. That's the trend for the last decade or so at least. Models aren't so reliable that far anyway.

Yeah I agree. So what is the best thing to do right now to forecast ENSO? Should I not rely on the models as much and just keep a close eye on the daily SOIs and weekly SST anomalies?

[Ntxw]

I think the latest model forecast is pretty reasonable in that it has the forecast around 1c by Oct. I would stick to that prediction for now. Then probably a little more warming through Dec. Anywhere between 0.8c and 1.5c is my guess for the spread. Nina/Nina/Nino, Nina/Neutral/Nino analogs continue to suggest that outcome.

Posted this link in the winter thread for ONI. MJJ probably ends up warm neutral and if August has appreciable warming then JJA MIGHT average out to be our first 0.5c (Nino).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov...ensoyears.shtml

[South Texas Storms]

Yeah I agree with you on the between 0.8c and 1.5c spread.
Do the majority of the analogs indicate that Texas will see a wet and cool winter? Do you think we will?
I think we will.

[NDG]

:uarrow:

So the mjo/convection being over the WPAC causes water temperatures to warm across the Nino region 4 and possibly 3.4 as well? Do you know why that occurs Ntxw?

The MJO does not directly warm it. If what I know is correct, Kelvin waves do. Kelvin waves are usually started by activity of the MJO. They are seen as rises in sea surface heights (expanding water warms) which in our case brings up the warmer sub-surface waters. Complicated reading but that's about as simple as I can think of to put it

Today's SST anomalies also points to 3 having 4c+ (however not in the calculated spots) areas. That is pretty dramatic compared to early in the month. Just about all important Enso regions had warming this week.

http://i50.tinypic.com/2zyedet.gif

Hmm, I on the other hand think that Nino 3.4 has cooled down a tad so far this week. Might be back down to .4 deg C on next week's update.

[cycloneye]

Look at all those warm waters at the subsurface poised to go up.

[OURAGAN]

30 Days SOI now is positive at + 2,1

[Kingarabian]

SOI is puzzling me.

[South Texas Storms]

Actually region 3.4 warmed up this week as cycloneye posted this on the previous page of this thread:

Nino 3.4 continues to warm after the CPC 7/23/12 update of +0.5C,now up to +0.68C rounding to +0.7C according to the Aussies data.

:uarrow:

So the mjo/convection being over the WPAC causes water temperatures to warm across the Nino region 4 and possibly 3.4 as well? Do you know why that occurs Ntxw?

The MJO does not directly warm it. If what I know is correct, Kelvin waves do. Kelvin waves are usually started by activity of the MJO. They are seen as rises in sea surface heights (expanding water warms) which in our case brings up the warmer sub-surface waters. Complicated reading but that's about as simple as I can think of to put it

Today's SST anomalies also points to 3 having 4c+ (however not in the calculated spots) areas. That is pretty dramatic compared to early in the month. Just about all important Enso regions had warming this week.

http://i50.tinypic.com/2zyedet.gif

Hmm, I on the other hand think that Nino 3.4 has cooled down a tad so far this week. Might be back down to .4 deg C on next week's update.

[NDG]

Actually region 3.4 warmed up this week as cycloneye posted this on the previous page of this thread:

Nino 3.4 continues to warm after the CPC 7/23/12 update of +0.5C,now up to +0.68C rounding to +0.7C according to the Aussies data.

I have my questions regarding the graphic below posted by cycloneye, from the Aussies data. It shows that in late June Nino 3.4 was +0.7C, when we know that it was not according to the CPC. I wonder if they go by a different average deg C number.

[cycloneye]

SOI is puzzling me.

Now up to +3.5 on the 30 day SOI.

[South Texas Storms]

SOI is puzzling me.

Now up to +3.5 on the 30 day SOI.

Looking at the latest models, the SOI should be moderately negative for the next several days.

[Ntxw]

Indeed ENSO has warmed up a touch this week. I'll wait for Cycloneye to post the official numbers.

It appears that the recent weeks of SOI+ was just noise. We've had two weeks of warming despite positive SOI's taking hold. However, as the SOI indicates, atmospheric patterns are still not solid Nino yet.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 7/30/12 Update

Nino 3.4 goes up to +0.6C. Last week's update was at +0.5C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[SoupBone]

Anyone notice the daily SOI tanking hard?

Down to -27.45

[South Texas Storms]

Anyone notice the daily SOI tanking hard?

Down to -27.45

Yeah the models have been indicating that would happen for several days now. They show it continuing for a few more days as well.

[Ntxw]

To add with modeling, medium-long range models hint at a crash in Tahiti pressures sometime mid August. If this is true we may see some impressive long term dips in the SOI here in the coming weeks.

[Kingarabian]

I have a question though, does the CPC use the SOI's readings in any of it's forecasts and updates?