2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Astromanía]

Wilma 2.0?

[ChrisH-UK]

12z GEFS has a good size cluster in the vicinity of Jamaica at 240 hours. That's about as far as I'll look for a signal. Need the Euro to show something similar to really raise an eyebrow.

Agreed. That would certainly be an alarm bell to me if either the EURO or the ICON were to chime in with a similar GFS solution. The other thing that I was just about to post (but SFLcane beat me to it LOL), is the fact that the GFS continues to show genesis as we move closer in time. No moving of the goal posts thus far.

Well looks like the ECMWF heard you, at the end of the lastest run it has broad circulation starting to form up in the Caribbean, still a long way off and likely to change or not happen.

[xironman]

That is some pretty sticky goal posts as far as genesis. Even with Nadine the GFS was pretty much on it with genesis, just not track

[GCANE]

Looks like this is legit.
Huge anti-cyclone developing in the Carib in 2 days.

[xironman]

Might as well show the money shot

[kevin]

06z GFS is determined to continue Florida's hurricane rampage this year and also adds Cuba to the mix.

[mantis83]

alot of the 6Z gfs ensembles are east of the operational, east of florida.....

[Blown Away]

06z GFS

[toad strangler]

alot of the 6Z gfs ensembles are east of the operational, east of florida.....

True, although personally I stop looking at even ensembles past 240 hours. But in the spirit of the thread being to 384 hours, yep latest run weighted to the E of FL. Cuba gets smoked.

[aspen]

Operational Euro and CMC are starting to catch onto this potential TC. Odds are good we see something develop between Oct 30th-Nov 3rd.

[USTropics]

I do think we will see some type of development in the Caribbean, the MJO pulse will provide the necessary vertical ascent over the Caribbean to get something going (both the GFS and ECMWF products show this starting around Halloween):



Forecasting a track is going to be extremely difficult at this long lead time though, as the upper-level pattern over CONUS begins to transition to fall/winter in earnest. In particular, upper-level verification scores are going to be taking a hit here as the models try and figure out how to assess the first significant cut-off low of the fall/winter season. This is currently developing SE of Alaska (I like to use this product from Alicia Bentley that essentially shows our dynamic tropopause temperatures to analyze upper-level feature):


We can see this start to separate from the upper-level jet stream flow in ~48 hours:


Cutoff lows are one of the toughest upper-level features to forecast track for, and almost always leads to a degradation in model forecast verifications at longer forecast periods. Here is the full 06z GFS solution, and we can see this upper-level/cutoff low acts to amplify high pressure/ridging over the northeast United states (which allows the system to move into the GOM):


Again, want to emphasize expect adjustments to this upper level pattern. If we take a look at the trend of the last 8 GFS runs, the pattern has been everywhere:

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1849425860253868196

[Stormlover70]

2004 vibes back to back grrrr

2004 shut off pretty much after Jeanne/Karl by around October 1. This is more 1995, 2005 or 2020.

I was referring to storms hitting florida back to back.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Might as well show the money shot

https://i.imgur.com/WgCipGZ.png

Election day hurricane.

[WeatherBoy2000]

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1849425860253868196?s=46

Can we know for sure that this will be the last chance for hurricanes? I know it'll be the very end of October/the first week of November, but given this year's performance stating this definitively might still be jumping the gun. We've seen major hurricanes as late as November 20th or so in the Atlantic (Otto/Kate) along with other major hurricanes during the middle of the month. It is still unlikely, but with how warm the Atlantic is, I think that there's a higher chance that more intense activity could still develop later on.

[MetroMike]

Might as well show the money shot

https://i.imgur.com/WgCipGZ.png

Election day hurricane.

Cannot imagine the unprecedented implications of that.

[Pasmorade]

When do you think the NHC will start including this development in the outlooks?

[Jr0d]

Might as well show the money shot

https://i.imgur.com/WgCipGZ.png

Election day hurricane.

Cannot imagine the unprecedented implications of that.

Not only would it be devastating but it could fuel the wacko conspiracy theory that the bogey man can control hurricanes.

[ronjon]

06z GFS looks like a carbon copy of Milton track across Florida. This season we've had a similar pattern of landfall with Debby, Helene, and Milton. All eastern GOM storms. Weird how some years you can get repeated strikes. Climatology does argue that if a storm forms in the western Caribbean it will be tough for it to make the latitude of Tampa before being steered off to the east in the westelies. Seems like south Florida and the keys need to be watching this one closely.

[underthwx]

Looks like this is legit.
Huge anti-cyclone developing in the Carib in 2 days.

Yeah Gcane....somethings on the horizon....as a footnote...I commented yesterday on several news agencies...whom I shall not name...are reporting this possibility...before the NHC has even designated an area of interest....but based on what yall here are discussing....I have little doubt that there will be development in the Carribean....but no idea if a cyclone will form...or who...if any area...will be impacted....i read that the setup that kept Oscar away from the CONUS....has changed...so that leads me to believe that if something forms....there could quite possibly be some concerns for the CONUS?....I dunmo tho....I rely on yall...and the NHC for that info...