Potential in the GOM?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Joe B has some concerns for the W and NW GOM early next week as the MJO pulse continues.

Not much model support, but as JB notes, GFS predicts impressive moisture surge into Louisiana in Monday and Tuesday.

[jasons2k]

Here is what Jeff Linder had to say this morning:

Main concern this morning is the extended and what to do with potential NW Gulf of Mexico tropical low formation early to middle next week. GFS is very aggressive in developing a broad area of surface to mid level low pressure over the NW Gulf of Mexico early next week and moving this system slowly N to NNW into SE TX and the coast bend resulting in very impressive QPF and likely flooding rains. EURO and other models are not as bullish with either any kind of surface feature nor the moisture pool and maintain more of an inverted trough. Very close watch is needed on this period given potential for 2.2-2.5 inch PWS to move into the coast and possible tropical system organization.

[gboudx]

DFW NWS giving some mention. I quoted only the relevant parts.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
321 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2008

LONG RANGE MODELS RUN INTO SOME DISAGREEMENTS BEGINNING AS EARLY
AS SUNDAY. THE EURO IS NOW FORECASTING TWO SEPARATE TROPICAL LOWS TO
SLIDE INTO TEXAS FROM THE GULF BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST ONLY ONE TROPICAL LOW IMPACTING NORTH
TEXAS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW
AND NOW DEVELOPS IT INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ON LAND.
THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BETWEEN THE GFS
AND EURO WITH REGARD TO THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM...BUT THE EURO IS
FARTHER WEST THAN THE GFS. THE EURO BRINGS THIS LOW THROUGH CENTRAL
TEXAS WHILE THE GFS SLIDES IT NORTH THROUGH EAST TEXAS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE GFS FORECAST AND KEEP 20 POPS FOR NOW AS MODELS
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON LOCATION AND MOS NUMBERS DO NOT INDICATE
POPS HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF THIS
PATTERN HOLDS...A TROPICAL LOW COULD BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN
TO NORTH TEXAS. DESPITE THE DISCREPANCIES AT THIS TIME...THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE REFLECTS THE GFS MODEL WITH REGARD TO
WINDS/DEWPOINTS/TEMPERATURES/ETC.

[KWT]

Hmmm the only thing I can see that might spark something off in the guld next week is the tropical wave that has 93L on it, not sure what will be left of it by that time but who knows, the MJO phase does turn favorable soon over in that region.

[Stratosphere747]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS CONTINUED GFS DEPICTION
OF A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INLAND ACROSS TEXAS BY
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SLUG OF VERY HIGH PWATS
PUSHING INTO TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. LATEST GFS RUN EVEN DEVELOPS A
CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. ON THE OTHER HAND...ECMWF
SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER INVERTED TROUGH LOCATED FURTHER TO THE WEST.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST LIES IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST FOR TUE/WED. GFS CONTINUES WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
OVER THE NW GULF. BY TUE...AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE
TX GULF COAST AND BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND. THE GFS BEGINS TO MOVE A
TROPICAL AIRMASS INTO SE TX WITH PRECIP WATER GREATER THAN 2
INCHES INTO THE AREA. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS ALSO A SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST FROM
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX

INTERESTINGLY, THE 00Z GFS
SPINS UP A MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AND MOVES IT INLAND ALONG THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA
BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS TO
BOOT. THE 00Z ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW A FEATURE LIKE THIS.

[jasons2k]

Hmmm the only thing I can see that might spark something off in the guld next week is the tropical wave that has 93L on it, not sure what will be left of it by that time but who knows, the MJO phase does turn favorable soon over in that region.

I was wondering this myself - you *could* extrapolate 93L to this region mid-next week...if there is anything not sheared away

[KatDaddy]

That what Joe B is thinking......Invest 93L could be an issue for Texas. We shall see.

[KWT]

Well 93L wil lbe gone but the moisture and the wave axis will still be present and we've seen these get into the BoC/GoM before and eventually develop into something, just something to watch closer to the USA.

[dixiebreeze]

Looks like winds are picking up in the west central GOM:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html

[Kennethb]

With the MJO in the positive mode and a trough that has just exited the area, I would think that some of the trough has been left behind, perhaps in the middle layers, to simmer in the GOM. Not that I would expect rapid or strong development, but this is the time of year to get one of those sheared/hybrid looking systems.

[KWT]

Shear still looks pretty strong though dixie looking at that, still at this time of year if you can get a period of lower shear then something could come out of it you just need to watch closely.

[Stormcenter]

Well the N.O. 7/3/08 NWS late afternoon discussions mentions the NW GOM as an area
to watch.

LONG TERM...
OVERALL PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL PATTERN WITH RIDGE EXTENSION ALONG
THE GULF COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE FAIRLY DEEP
AND STATIONARY TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
APPALACHIAN STATES...ALONG WITH STATIONARY RIDGING IN THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD IMPART NEAR
CLIMO RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE MONITORING THE WEST GULF FOR POSSIBLE
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS INDICATED FOR THE PAST FEW
RUNS OF THE MODELS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THIS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH
OF A CONCERN FOR OUR AREA BUT HAS THE APPEARANCES OF ALISON OR
FRANCES FROM THE LATE 1990S...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENTS OF
TROPICAL NATURE.

[HURAKAN]

[Ptarmigan]

Let us not forget that a persistant area of thunderstorms over the Gulf of Mexico was forecasted not to develop in 2001. Guess what? It did and it became Allison and became a major disaster. It does bear watching.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

As per the models, and the ample moisture and upcoming
favorable conditions, with heavy convection in place, a tropical
system may form. This means heavy rains for Texas.
Whatever forms, be it tropical or not, will be
pushed into Texas by the steering current
of the ridge to the east.

[Duddy]

As per the models, and the ample moisture and upcoming
favorable conditions, with heavy convection in place, a tropical
system may form. This means heavy rains for Texas.
Whatever forms, be it tropical or not, will be
pushed into Texas by the steering current
of the ridge to the east.

Seriously dude? Dang, I'll be in Houston all next week training for AT&T. I'll be staying by the Galleria and I REALLY don't want an Allison type situation at that time.

[Ptarmigan]

Whatever happens to this convection, it will give rain.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I don't know about an Allison situation, but it does appear
that there is heavy rain likely.

[Steve]

Immediate picture is the South Texas/Brownsville area which is dealing with some of the disturbed weather that has been flairing up in the Gulf from a wave, part of an old trough, etc.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

[TexWx]

Do I detect a bit of spin north of Brownsville?