Area of disturbed weather in SW Caribbean (Is invest 94L)

[JonathanBelles]

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My current thoughts on this disorganized system. Any and all organization and forward movement will be slow to occur.

http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... -organize/ ‎

[Huracan Gorges]

Looks like yhe big Low Pressure is South of the Haiti And the Dominican Republic Regions......Showing at this point a very slow movment NE to the Hispanola and Puerto Rico.......Im from PR And all ready the meteologys of some television stacion are monitoring the System.......

[cycloneye]

The 00z Surface analysis shows where the surface low is. What is south of Hispanola is a mid-level circulation.



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[tailgater]

Watching the 850mb vorticty loop for the last 5 days you can really see this thing winding up. It also looks like it'll be a pretty big size wise.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... 4java.html

[ROCK]

0z NOGAPS is a tad aggressive IMO....


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Nimbus]

Latest convection burst blossoming near 79W 17N is still displaced NE a little from where the low level circulation was centered last night. The shear has been slowly weakening so this may be the burst that gets an invest number.

Do the early model tracks that are associated with invests effect the oil markets?

[TCmet]

Do the early model tracks that are associated with invests effect the oil markets?

No. This isn't heading to oil country anyway.

[wxman57]

Do the early model tracks that are associated with invests affect the oil markets?

No. This isn't heading to oil country anyway.

I deal with traders and oil producers on a daily basis. Actually, model tracks that would put a disturbance in the Gulf (with good development potential) would most certainly affect the oil market. However, a pitiful, weak disturbance with close to zero chance of development is just ignored by the market.

[Dean4Storms]

Shear east of Nicaragua is around 10-15kts, if we get convection today this could get an invest. I think now that the MLC is well out it just might.

[Dean4Storms]

Do the early model tracks that are associated with invests effect the oil markets?

No. This isn't heading to oil country anyway.

LOL, I thought you had been experienced enough to never say... No, isn't or never where weather is concerned!

[HURAKAN]

The circulation looks better today

[floridasun78]

twc say we could see td by next week as shear drop

[floridasun78]

The circulation looks better today

it look shear affecting north side of low pressure area i see storm are trying form south side of low

[HURAKAN]

latest

[RL3AO]

Were so used to an immediate chance of development that 'it may form next week' seems strange.

[SouthDadeFish]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 031400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT FRI 03 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z JUNE 2011
WSPOD NUMBER.....11-003

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
IN THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N 79W AT 05/1800Z.
3. REMARK: INVEST FOR 03/1800Z CANCELED AT 03/1130Z.

Recon tentatively scheduled for the 5th. Interesting.

[HURAKAN]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 031400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT FRI 03 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z JUNE 2011
WSPOD NUMBER.....11-003

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
IN THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N 79W AT 05/1800Z.
3. REMARK: INVEST FOR 03/1800Z CANCELED AT 03/1130Z.

Recon tentatively scheduled for the 5th. Interesting.

There is one for tomorrow that was scheduled yesterday and not cancelled today, so I guess it remains on track.

[SouthDadeFish]

Really? I only knew of one for 93L tomorrow...

[HURAKAN]

Really? I only knew of one for 93L tomorrow...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT THU 02 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z JUNE 2011
WSPOD NUMBER.....11-002

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
IN THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N 80W AT 04/1800Z.

[SouthDadeFish]

Oh nice find. I guess since it is no longer issued on the outlook issued today, they will not fly in tomorrow. I doubt it will organize into anything worth flying into by tomorrow.